Barnes Beat the Checkbook in 1998. Can History Rhyme in 2026?

Some races feel familiar even when the names change.

In 1998, Georgia voters chose between Roy Barnes, a then longtime state legislator with deep roots in government, and Guy Millner, a wealthy businessman who had already spent millions of his own money trying to win statewide office. Millner’s defining public identity was his checkbook. Barnes’s was experience. Barnes won 52 to 44.

Nearly three decades later, the structure of the 2026 governor’s race has a similar outline. Keisha Lance Bottoms arrives as the Democratic nominee with executive experience and a public record. Rick Jackson arrives as a wealthy health-care executive who has largely financed his own campaign. Once again, Georgians are being asked to decide whether personal wealth and self-funding are sufficient credentials for the Governor’s Mansion.

The parallel is not perfect. The Georgia of 1998 was still in political transition. The Georgia of 2026 is more polarized, more expensive to campaign in, and more shaped by national currents. Barnes was a white legislator from Cobb County; Bottoms is a Black former mayor of Atlanta. Those differences matter.

But the core tension remains recognizable: a self-funded outsider defined by business success versus a candidate defined by public service. In 1998, enough voters decided that writing large personal checks was not the same as earning the office. Whether that judgment holds in 2026 will depend on whether working families believe the person asking for their vote understands the cost of their electric bill, their insurance, their rent, and their groceries.

History does not repeat itself on command. It does, however, leave patterns worth noticing on a quiet Sunday morning.

The Elders Bless Thurmond and the New Folks Catch the Holy Ghost for the Wrong Reason

Church, gather ‘round for a quick word this Sunday morning, because some of y’all are acting like you’ve never seen politics before.

Tell me why folks are clutching their pearls because former Governor Roy Barnes and civil rights legend Andrew Young offered their support in a race? When did that become a crisis? When did a simple endorsement turn into a thunderstorm?

Let me preach this slow:

This ain’t new.  

This ain’t shocking.  

This ain’t even unusual.

Former elected officials endorse candidates every single cycle — Republican, Democrat, and everybody in between. It’s as normal as a deacon falling asleep during the sermon.

But here’s what I’m seeing, especially around Atlanta:

Some of the newer Democrats get real tense whenever the old guard speaks up.  

Not because of the endorsement itself, but because they don’t like the idea of voices with history and mileage still having something to say.

But hear this Sunday truth:

An endorsement is not control.  

It’s not a coronation.  

It’s not a backroom deal.  

It’s not a puppet string.

It’s simply seasoned folks  people who’ve lived through the highs and lows of Georgia politics saying,  

“Here’s who I believe in.”

You can shout amen to it, or you can sit there with your arms crossed.  

You can agree or disagree.  

That’s your right.

But let’s not pretend this is some wild new phenomenon.  

Let’s not act like the sky is falling because elders in the movement still have a voice.

This is normal politics.  

Nothing more, nothing less.

Now pass the plate and let the congregation say hallelujah.

Two Georgia Heavyweights Just Dropped Their Boots on the Porch for Thurmond.

This morning, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports Roy Barnes and Andrew Yound have thrown their full support and endorsement behind Michael Thurmond bid for Governor. 

When Andrew Young and Roy Barnes step into a race, it’s never just ceremonial. These are two of the most recognizable Democrats in modern Georgia politics, one a civil rights icon and Atlanta statesman, the other the last Democrat to win the Governor’s Mansion. Their endorsements don’t crown a nominee, but they do shift the ground under a campaign’s feet.

And for Michael Thurmond, they matter in three distinct arenas:  

The primary, rural Georgia, and a potential general election.

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1. What It Means for the Democratic Primary

Young and Barnes speak to two pillars of the Democratic coalition that still matter in a primary:

- Older Black voters, who trust Andrew Young’s judgment and moral authority  

- Long‑time Democratic loyalists, who remember Roy Barnes as the last statewide Democratic governor  

Their support signals something simple but powerful:  

This is a serious campaign with real credibility.

Inside the party, endorsements like these open doors with donors, county chairs, activists, and local officials. They don’t guarantee votes, but they change the conversation about viability.

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2. What It Means for His Push Into Rural Georgia

This is where the Barnes endorsement especially hits.

Roy Barnes still has name recognition in rural counties. He campaigned there, governed with them in mind, and remains one of the last Democrats rural voters remember personally. His backing gives Thurmond a level of familiarity and trust in places where Democrats have struggled to reconnect.

Andrew Young’s name carries weight everywhere even in small counties with small Black populations. His endorsement signals steadiness and seriousness.

Together, they help:

- Open doors with rural elected officials  

- Ease skepticism in counties Democrats haven’t carried in years  

- Strengthen turnout operations in places where every vote is hard‑earned  

It’s not magic. But it’s meaningful.

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3. What It Means for a Potential General Election

Endorsements don’t win general elections.  

But they help shape the coalition needed to compete.

A. Credibility With Moderates and Independents

Barnes still resonates with older white moderates, rural Democrats who drifted right, and business‑minded independents. His support signals competence and stability.

B. Moral Authority With Black Voters

Andrew Young’s endorsement carries weight in Black churches and communities across the state, especially among older voters who still view him as a civil rights leader with unmatched credibility.

C. Institutional Strength

Both men have deep networks. Their backing can help:

- Attract donors  

- Bring in validators  

- Strengthen statewide infrastructure  

In a general election, that matters.

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The Bottom Line

These endorsements don’t decide the race.  

But they do something just as important:

They signal that Thurmond’s campaign is credible, serious, and capable of building a broad Democratic Coalition,

the kind needed to win a primary and compete statewide.

They don’t guarantee victory.  

But they absolutely reshape the landscape.

Michael Thurmond and the Case for Competence Over Charisma

In an era when political success is too often measured by who can generate the most viral clip or command the loudest applause, Michael Thurmond stands as a quiet rebuke to the spectacle. He is the rare figure in Georgia politics whose credibility comes not from theatrics but from decades of steady, unglamorous public service. And that, ironically, is why he’s both underestimated by some Democrats and quietly respected by many Republicans.

Thurmond is the kind of Democrat Republicans could tolerate in the Governor’s Mansion, not because he shares their ideology, but because he has earned a reputation for competence, pragmatism, and seriousness. He doesn’t posture. He doesn’t chase national attention. He doesn’t treat governing as a performance. In a polarized state, that alone sets him apart.

Yet within the Democratic party, Thurmond doesn’t always inspire the kind of emotional rush that modern campaigns seem to demand. He’s not a celebrity candidate. He’s not a social‑media phenomenon. He doesn’t fit the “vibes‑first” energy that excites certain corners of the Democratic base. But the fixation on charisma over capability has always been a political mirage, and Georgia’s recent elections have shown just how fragile that approach can be.

The truth is simple: vibes don’t win elections. Hard work, fortitude, and trust do.

And Thurmond has built a career on exactly those qualities.

He is one of the few Democrats who can move comfortably between constituencies that rarely overlap, rural Black voters, suburban moderates, business leaders, and longtime state employees who have watched him navigate government from the inside. He speaks the language of economic mobility and educational opportunity, not national culture wars. He understands the machinery of state government because he has spent years operating it, not critiquing it from afar.

That kind of credibility doesn’t trend on social media, but it does win over voters who want a governor, not a performer.

Georgia Democrats face a strategic crossroads. They can continue chasing candidates who generate excitement but struggle to expand the map, or they can look toward leaders who have built trust the slow, old‑fashioned way  by showing up, doing the work, and delivering results. Thurmond belongs firmly in the latter category.

He may not be the flashiest candidate
in the field, but he represents something increasingly rare in politics: a candidate defined by substance rather than spectacle. And in a state as divided and dynamic as Georgia, that might be exactly what leadership requires.

Fundraiser for Winfred Dukes slated for tomorrow in Atlanta

Tomorrow in Atlanta, Agriculture Commission candidate Winfred Dukes (D-Albany) will be the recipient of a high dollar fundraiser that will feature Roy Barnes, Mark Taylor, Charles Walker, Keith Mason, Shirley Franklin, and Bobby Kahn among others, Dukes is running to replace Gary Black who is running for the U.S. Senate. Tyler Harper is the only republican who's running for Ag Commissioner. Other Democrats in the race include Nakita Hemingway and Fred Swann. 

Dukes, a south Georgia Democrat is one of three democrats running statewide who hails fron outside of Atlanta, (Floyd Griffin of Milledgeville and Lester Jackson of Savannah)

Michael Owens Endorsements for Secretary of State

Here is the list of elected officials who have given Owens their endorsement

• Gov. Roy Barnes, eightieth governor of Georgia
• Sen. Michael Rhett, Georgia State Senate, District 33
• Gail Hambrick, Clayton County Commissioner
• Monique Sheffield, Cobb County Commissioner
• Kelly Robinson, Douglas County Commissioner
• Jessie Goree, Clayton County School Board Chair
• Dee Haney, Clayton County School Board Member
• Tre Hutchens, Cobb County School Board Member
• Devetrion Caldwell, Douglas County School Board Member
• Rita Fasina-Thomas, Douglas County School Board Member
• Makenzie McDaniel, Henry County School Board Member
• Sandra Vincent, McDonough Mayor
• Anthony Ford, Stockbridge Mayor
• Carlos Greer, Locust Grove Mayor Pro-Tem
• Devon Myrick, Austell City Councilman
• Valerie Anderson, Austell City Councilwoman
• Connie Alsobrook, Conyers City Councilwoman
• Lance Robertson, East Point City Councilman
• Devlin Cleveland, Hampton City Councilman
• Erroll Mitchell, former Hampton City Councilman
• Alfred Dixon, former Jonesboro City Councilman
• Antonio Jones, Kennesaw City Councilman
• Maryline Blackburn, former Smyrna City Councilwoman
• LaKeisha Gantt, Stockbridge City Councilwoman
• Yolanda Barber, Stockbridge City Councilwoman
• Larry Curtis, Warner Robins City Councilma

Can Winfred Dukes put a "W" in the win column for State Democrats?

It's no secret that the Democratic Party has been bleeding voters over the past decade in rural Georgia. In 2010 Georgia voters elected Republican, now Senate candidate Gary Black over then State Senator J.B. Powell, another Conservative Democrat to succeed longtime Agriculture Commissioner, the late Tommy Irvin, a Conservative Democrat from Northeast Georgia who was appointed by then Governor Lester Maddox in 1969 who Tom Baxter coined as the last Democrat out the door following his retirement in 2010. Irvin's grandson Chris Irvin ran in 2014, losing to Gary Black.

Now comes Winfred Dukes, a centrist Democratic State Representative from Southwest Georgia (Albany), the heart of Georgia Agriculture. He served over two decades in the Georgia house. He gives the Democrats best chance at winning this crucial post. But he must get past the Democratic primary where two other candidate are vying for the nomination. Dukes comes from the Roy Barnes-Mark Taylor-Michael Thirmond wing of the Democratic party that still carry some influence despite the new, progressive wing led by Stacey Abrams.In many states, the position carries significant authority. In 40 states, according to the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture, agriculture departments oversee the animal industry; in about half of states, they oversee food safety and meat inspection. In 48 states, they determine what qualifies as "organic," while in 43 states they regulate pesticides. Over the past decade, growing Republican strength further down the ballot here in Georgia, combined with attrition among long-serving, conservative Democrats incumbents has helped the GOP win lower state offices and increased opportunities for the types of rural Republicans who can seriously contest the position of agriculture commissioner.

The GOP has also focused more attention on agriculture offices, partnering with the Republican Agriculture Commissioners Committee and Ag America, a group that works to elect qualified Republican candidates to the position.

What's more, Democratic electoral and bench strength here in Georgia is concentrated in cities and suburbs, where it’s hard to become a credible candidate for agriculture commissioner. Two Democrats running for Ag Commissioner, Nakita Hemingway and Fred Swann hail from the metro Atlanta area. Besides, rural voters feel they have more at stake in voting for agriculture commissioner than urban voters do ans that my friends is a fact!

These days the GOP has no shortage of qualified candidates here in Georgia with agricultural backgrounds, while Democrats have tapped a mix of farmers, agriculture policy experts, civil servants and the occasional rural lawmaker for the post. Can Dukes break the Democratic drought? 

Barnes at Mason Pecan Farm for event on Monday

Roy Barnes at a event at The Mason Pecan Farm in Peach County.

Behind the table of food products were a host of farmers, community and state leaders, including:

Former state Rep. Larry Walker (D-Perry),
Former state Rep. Sonny Watson (D-Warner Robins),
Outgoing state Commissioner of Agriculture Tommy Irvin (D-Mt. Airey)
Former state Rep. Robert Ray (D-Ft. Valley)
Current State Rep. Lynmore James (D-Montezuma)


Exerpts from the Macon Telegraph:

Thomas Mason of Mason Pecan Farm lauded Barnes as a supporter of the state’s agricultural industry and noted that Barnes supports the farm bill.

“The CEO of Georgia must understand that Georgia’s No. 1 industry is agriculture, and Roy Barnes understands,” Mason said.

Duke Lane, a peach and pecan grower from Fort Valley, also spoke of Barnes’ support of the agriculture industry and the farm bill.

Former Houston County Commissioner Larry Snellgrove who serves on the "Republicans for Roy" Committee, who Barnes noted traveled with him Monday in a yellow campaign school bus, likened the race to a football game.

“It’s the fourth quarter. Two minutes left. We’ve got the ball,” said Snellgrove, who added that the momentum is building toward Barnes. “This election is not about an ‘R’ or about a ‘D.’ It’s about a ‘G’ — Georgia

Roy Barnes Accomplishments during his first term

Roy had many legislative accomplishments during his term as Governor.

In Education, he focused on lowering class size, raised standards by requiring accountability, and passed legislation requiring more discipline in the classroom. He also created a comprehensive group to study education in Georgia and undertook the most widespread revision of education in a generation.

Believing that health care in Georgia must be both affordable and accessible, Roy successfully fought for passage of the bill that guaranteed patients the right to choose their own doctor, and a bill that established a patient's bill of rights and allowed insurance companies to be held liable for denying or delaying much needed care.

As Governor, Roy also demanded that taxes be cut.

He completed four years of a property tax cut on homes and family farms. He passed a property Tax Payers Bill of Rights that exposes backdoor tax increases of increasing assessments to public scrutiny. Roy also passed the first ever Sales Tax Holiday for Georgia in an effort to stimulate the economy and provide citizens with immediate tax savings. Roy honored his campaign promises and made tough decisions to insure hope for jobs, education and healthcare.

Barnes also created the OneGeorgia Program that was designed to bring Economic vitality to rural Georgia. Not to mentioned the changing of the Confederate Flag, which was a major reason he lost.

Now you all have seen the ads from the RGA Georgia distorting & depicting Barnes first four years as governor as "disastorous", which it wasn't. The state's economy grew after Barnes first term despite a recession & created over 235,000 jobs. Yes, the state unemployment rate grew from 3,9% to 4.9% ,those numbers sound better that the 10% unemployment rate we are facing right now.


I'll say this, for all of the "I don't like Roy talk" let me tell it like it is: "Barnes is just like medicine, He might taste bad to some going down, but once he's been in you for a while, you'll feel better". And let me tell you, no one likes to be sick & right now given the condition of this state, I'd rather have some of that Barnes medicine than Deal's that may make the condition worse than it is & Georgia can't afford that

CONGRESSMAN DEAL LIKES TO GIVE HIMSELF A LEG-UP IN THE WORKPLACE WHILE KEEPING THE GLASS CEILING INTACT

Presser from the Barnes Campaign

When it comes to the workplace, Congressman Deal knows all about how to make an office environment comfortable. For instance, in his Congressional office, Deal voted at least six times to increase his salary to the tune of $21,000 and he used office time and resources for personal gain. So it comes as a shock that Congressman Deal wouldn't want to afford women the same workplace standards and perks.

One of Deal's first acts in Congress was to vote against the Family Medical Leave Act which enables employees to take unpaid leave for major family events such as the birth or adoption of a child or the care of a seriously ill loved one.

Then in 2009, Congressman Deal voted against the landmark equal pay legislation, the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which ensures that victims of pay discrimination can challenge unequal pay. This was not the first time Deal voted against equal pay for men and women in the workplace - he voted against it at least three other times.

Click here to read more about Congressman Deal's votes against women in the workplace.

"Congressman Deal loves a cushy gig; in fact, if he hadn't been run out of Washington D.C. by the Congressional Ethics Committee, he probably would have stayed up there a little longer and voted to increase his salary a few more times," spokeswoman Anna Ruth Williams said.

"Unfortunately for Georgia's working women, Congressman Deal doesn't want them to have a cushy gig like his, much less equal protection and rights under the law. Georgia's professional women have worked too hard and come too far to let someone like Congressman Deal be the CEO of this state."

Unlike his opponent, Roy Barnes has worked to provide a level playing field and create opportunities for women in Georgia. As governor, he provided incentives for businesses who created on-site child care centers and he created the Mentor Protege Program to help minority and women-owned small businesses. Under his leadership, Georgia moved from 48th to 19th in the ranking of states with women in leadership roles.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, women comprise roughly half of the workforce, yet men take home 20 percent more than women do based on median weekly earnings.

Roy Barnes New Ad: Slings & Arrows

Deal tried to weakened Rape Shield Law according to Barnes Campaign

Last week Roy 2010 released a new ad exposing Congressman Nathan Deal's attempt to gut Georgia's rape shield law and strip women of their basic protections. Unfortunately, the rape shield isn't the only time Deal tried to impede the justice system for Georgia's women - on four separate occasions, he voted to oppose domestic violence bills.In 1981, then-State Senator Roy Barnes authored legislation that allowed police to make an arrest, without warrant, of individuals suspected of committing violent acts against their spouses. Nathan Deal fought against the bill. His excuse? He said it violated the "sanctity of the family."

Several years later, Deal solidified his anti-women resume by casting the lone "nay" vote on a bill that strengthened domestic violence laws. While every other member of the state legislature voted to strengthen domestic violence laws, Nathan Deal made a point of voting against the best interest of Georgia's women.

Downloads:
Click here to read more about Deal's voting record.
News articles about Deal's record on domestic violence can be found here.
Deal's voting record on Barnes' 1988 Domestic Violence Bill can be found here and here."

The Governor of Georgia is tasked with the important responsibility of ensuring that our citizens are safe," said spokeswoman Anna Ruth Williams. "Time after time, Congressman Deal voted in the interest of the criminal - not the female victim. Thankfully, other members of the legislature - like Roy Barnes - fought Deal's attempts to hurt women. But if he's elected governor - the safety of women could be jeopardized."

"After fighting against the Domestic Violence Act and trying to gut the rape shield law, Congressman Deal owes Georgia's women and the countless victims of physical and sexual assault across this state an apology. You can tell a lot about the character of a man...you can also tell when that man shouldn't be your governor," Williams said.

According to the Georgia Bureau of Investigation, in 2009 there were 62,156 reported cases of family violence and over a quarter of those involved spouses.

South Georgia Voters will be key in Governor's Race

Great Story from the AP via Tifton Gazette:

The sun was barely up on a recent weekday morning when Nathan Deal arrived at the Blueberry Inn in this sleepy south Georgia town and began shaking hands with the Republican faithful who had gathered over coffee to meet their nominee for governor.

Later that same day, Democrat Roy Barnes was about 70 miles west in Tifton wooing teachers with his plans to get the state's schools back on track.

In this hotly contested election year, the road to the governor's mansion could lead through south Georgia. Both Barnes and Deal say the region is critical to their election strategies.

Anyone needing further proof needs only to look at how much time the candidates are spending there. Barnes and Deal have each been south of the so-called "gnat line" — which splits middle and south Georgia from the rest of the state — once or twice a week since they won their respective parties' nominations.

The heavy focus on the vast bottom half of the state comes down to a simple matter of electoral math. Deal hails from north Georgia and will almost certainly perform well in the conservative part of the state he has represented for 18 years in Congress.

Barnes, the former one-term governor from Cobb County, is widely expected to draw support in voter-rich metro Atlanta, the state's Democratic stronghold.

That means the rest of the state is — at least theoretically — up for grabs.

For Barnes, it means trying to win back the regions that deserted him in his re-election bid. Fueled by anger over Barnes' push to shrink the Confederate battle emblem on the state's flag, south Georgia voters turned out in numbers in 2002 and voted against Barnes, helping elect Republican Sonny Perdue. "South Georgia will decide this race," said Roger Boatright, chairman of the Bacon County Board of Commissioners. "You have two flawed candidates. I think it really could go either way.

Libertarian John Monds is a wild card who hails from Cairo in the southwest corner of the state and could pull some local support.

Today, the region — rural and still reliant on agriculture — has been hit hard by economic woes. Many voters there told The Associated Press it was pocketbook issues, rather than partisanship, that would determine their vote. But it was opposition to Democratic leadership in Washington, in particular President Barack Obama, that got voters riled up. Sometimes, the race for the state's top spot seemed almost an afterthought.

"People just hate Obama so badly," 54-year-old Peggy Lee, of Alma, said after Deal's appearance. "It's hard for some folks here to get past that and see anything else." Paul Bennett, a 55-year-old banker from Alma, said he liked that Deal was a businessman who "knows how to meet a payroll." "But quite honestly I think more people are paying attention to what's happening at the national level right now," Bennett said.

That could be bad news for Barnes. Voters are associating the state's economic problems with Democrats at the helm in Washington, not Republicans who have led the state for the past eight years. And in a year of anti-incumbent fervor, some say Deal's long tenure in the nation's capital could actually play well.

Darwin Carter, a failed GOP candidate for agriculture commissioner, introduced Deal at the Blueberry Inn by stressing that the former congressman's deep knowledge of Washington would help defeat "Obamacare." To beat the enemy, Carter suggested, you have to know the enemy's game.

"Right now it's extremely important to have someone who understands Washington in the governor's office," Carter said. Leroy Carver, chairman of the Bacon County Republican Party, summed up a sentiment held by a number of Deal backers: "We don't need four more years of Roy Barnes, no way."

"He's been down here a lot," Carver acknowledged. "But he can play the country boy act up all he wants, he's not one of us."

Others, past a few cotton fields up the road in Douglas, have different thoughts that suggest the region may be conservative — but not monolithic. The closure a year ago of a poultry processing plant was a devastating blow to Douglas, residents said. It is set to reopen, but some say Republicans in Atlanta have done little to help. "I think Roy Barnes might do a better job on the economy," John Martin, owner of the Hometown Barber Shop, said between cuts. "I lean Republican but to me the most important thing is jobs, and the economy."

Doug Douglas, a police officer from Ocilla, said he never thought he would consider voting for Barnes after he changed the flag. "But I might," Douglas said. "It's not like I've forgiven him for that, but I've moved on. There are other things that are more important now in my book."

During a town hall with teachers in Tifton at Tift County High School, one question from the audience suggested 2002 was not so long ago.
"I didn't vote for Sonny Perdue. I voted against you," Spud Bowen told Barnes.
"Alright, well that's OK," Barnes said with a chuckle, who proceeded to answer Bowen's question about student testing. Afterward, Bowen, who runs a business selling class rings and other school supplies said he was impressed. "He definitely gave me a lot to think about," Bowen said. "I was supposed to be heading from here to a Nathan Deal fundraiser."

Asked if he still planned to attend the Deal event, Bowen paused and then said, "I don't think I am."

BARNES UNVEILS HIS PLAN TO MAKE WATER PLANNING AND CONSERVATION A PRIORITY AS GOVERNOR

BARNES' PAST ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND VISION FOR THE FUTURE EARN HIM ENDORSEMENT FROM GEORGIA'S CONSERVATION VOTERS\

Standing on the banks of the Chattahoochee River on Wednesday, Roy Barnes received the endorsement of Georgia Conservation Voters and unveiled his plan to make water planning and conservation a priority as governor.

Barnes outlined the steps he'll take as governor to conserve and protect Georgia's water supply in order to procure favorable outcomes in the tri-state water crisis."Before we reached this crisis, Roy was proactive in solving our tri-state water problem," Georgia Conservation Voters Executive Director Chris Osborne said. "He focused the state on water planning to assess our regional needs and make sure Georgia has plenty of good, clean drinking water both now and in the future. And that's why we wholeheartedly endorse him in this election."



Barnes' plan includes:

Conserve Georgia's water supply by updating and repairing municipal water infrastructure and providing financial incentives for consumers who utilize technologies that reduce water usage such as low-flow toilets and modern irrigation systems.



Set goals for water management by working with Regional Water Planning Agencies to develop plans for managing storm water run-off, waste water treatment and water conservation.

Emphasize water storage by building new reservoirs and looking into storage alternatives such as underground storage.“If we’re going to provide economic opportunity and improved quality of life for Georgia’s businesses and citizens – we’ve got to work towards solutions and solve our ongoing water crisis,” Barnes said.


Established in 2000, and representing over 200,000 Georgia voters, the mission of Georgia Conservation Voters (GCV) is to preserve and enhance the quality of life for all Georgians by making conservation issues a top priority with Georgia’s elected officials, political candidates and voters. In 2008, 12 out of 13 GCV endorsed candidates won in primary elections and 17 of 20 GCV endorsed candidates won in general elections.

Roy Barnes Path to Victory according to the National Journal's Hotline

Welcome back to Hotline On Call's Path To Victory, where we look at some of the marquee races and how each side plans to win. This week, we're examining the Georgia governor's race between former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) and former Rep. Nathan Deal (R).

On the surface, this should be a race that Republicans have in the bag. The state has trended right and we're looking at a very Republican year. Democrats, however, believe they have a shot at this race and point to it as an example of Democratic gubernatorial candidates successfully running against the GOP environment. They are practically gleeful to be facing Deal, who emerged from a crowded GOP primary and has been beset by numerous ethical scandals that have come to light since.

On election night, keep an eye on this one: If Barnes prevails, it'll show that Democrats can take advantage of flawed Republican candidates this year. If Deal wins - or, as some polls suggest - wins big, it'll be a sign of the beginning of a Republican tidal wave.

As usual, we start with the challenger and, since this is a Republican held seat, that means the Democrat. Here is Roy Barnes' path to victory.

No Learning Curve: In many ways, Barnes is the best candidate Democrats could have hoped for this year. He has, of course, high name ID and he can argue that he'll restore sanity and order to a state that is on the verge of crisis.

As such, Barnes wants to convince Georgians that things were better when he was in charge. He is also making the case that there isn't time for someone who lacks his experience to try to turn the state around.

This messaging is evident in Barnes' positive ads, which focus on job creation - a top issue in Georgia, which has 10% unemployment. All of these ads end with the tag line, "Roy Barnes, no on the job training necessary."

Deal's Deals: A big part of Barnes campaign is focused on Deal and the seemingly steady drip of news stories detailing corruption allegations. "They almost could not have picked a worse candidate to run against Barnes," said one Democrat involved in the race.

Allegations that one of Deal's companies received more than $1M from a no-bid state contract, that his campaign is paying thousands for the use of a private plane to a company Deal partially owns and that he could be facing bankruptcy are all part of the Democrats' attacks.

One particularly hard hitting ad from Barnes shows 2 men discussing the race at a coffee shop. One man calls Deal "slippery as a bag of snakes" and the other says "guess we can call him 'shady Deal.'" It ends with a slogan of Barnes' campaign: Deal is "too corrupt, even for Congress."
Democrats hope these stories will help Barnes attract moderate Republicans, many of whom likely backed former Secretary of State Karen Handel in the GOP primary. Handel ran largely on cleaning up the ethics of the State House and Democrats believe her backers would be receptive to this message.

Get Rural: For Barnes to do well, he has to recapture the southern and rural parts of the state. When he won the governorship in '98, Barnes carried the south - following the Democratic path to statewide victory in Georgia used since Pres. Jimmy Carter. Four years later, however, Sonny Perdue trounced Barnes here as he marched into the governor's mansion.

Barnes has clearly gotten this message, as he has spent a lot of time campaigning in the south so far this year. In the primary, his strength in the southern and rural areas helped him avoid a runoff. He also has an advantage here in that Deal is from northern Georgia, something that is unusual for a gubernatorial candidate.

Keep an eye on counties like Turner, Coffee, Dodge, Wayne and Ware. Barnes carried these in '98 but lost them in '02. They are rural counties with, generally, low populations. Returns in these counties also tend to come in first on election night, and observers say that if Barnes is running even or ahead in this area he's in very good shape. (That's not a particularly easy task: John McCain (R-AZ) carried most of these districts by 60% or more in '08.)

Barnes will also need to run up the score in the state's urban areas like Atlanta and Augusta. Large vote totals in Atlanta counties like Fulton and DeKalb will be critical for Democrats.
Perhaps more important than that, however, will be turning out the sizable African American vote. In past elections, Africans Americans have cast 25% of the vote. In '08, they composed 30% of the vote. Democrats say that if that number crosses 25% again this year, Barnes will be in good shape.

I couldn't said this any better than Mr Jacobs did. I'll say it right now, Barnes will carry Turner, Coffee, & possibly Dodge Counties. I can't say about Ware & Wayne County. Other Counties to keep an eye on also are: Lanier, Worth, Telfair, Emanuel, Tift & Monroe. If he carries some or all of those counties in particular, he will be in great shape & plus no one knows how high the AA (Black) Vote will be in november. The AA (Black) vote is the hardest vote to detect before election day & if that number is in the 27-28% range, that's a good sign! Anything higher, would be a blessing for dems.

Latest Roy Barnes Ad: Jobs Factory

Will the NRA back Roy Barnes again for governor?

An endorsement from the National Rifle Association (NRA) is seen as one of the biggest endorsements a candidate can get. In some cases it is, while in other cases is not (Rob Teilhet in 2010 Dem. Primary)

So here we are in a governor's race than many have rated as a Toss-Up two Pro-Gun candidates for governor vying to replace Sonny Perdue next year.

Roy Barnes was endorsed by the powerful gun group in '98 & '02.

Said Tanya Metaksa back in 1998: Roy Barnes is an NRA life member and he has the highest rating from the NRA a candidate may receive. "An experienced legislator, he truly shares NRA's bedrock principles of safety, responsibility and freedom."


Barnes' family had sold guns at the Barnes Store in Mableton for decades, and he learned to hunt at a young age. As a legislator, he has opposed waiting periods for gun buyers, but supported the instant background check that is currently part of state law.

His opponent Nathan Deal has also been supported by the NRA as well for his votes against anti-gun legislation as a former congressman from the 9th District.

We will have to wait & see if the NRA gets involved in this race before its all over.

Larry Snellgrove, Republicans for Roy

Roy Talks Jobs in Middle Georgia

Barnes in Peach County This Morning addressing Farmers

One of the members of the Republicans for Roy Committee, ex-Houston County Commissioner Larry Snellgrove was on hand as well.