McLaurin’s Name Rings in North Fulton, But the Black Belt like Twiggs County Ain’t Echoing Yet

Every Sunday morning, before the coffee cools and the choir warms up, I like to take a look at the political landscape and ask the question folks whisper but rarely say out loud. Today’s question is simple:

Josh McLaurin may be the favorite in the suburbs  but can he win the Black Belt?

Now before anybody starts shouting, let’s lay out the facts like hymnals on a pew.

McLaurin has built his name in the northern metro suburbs — places where cul‑de‑sacs outnumber cotton fields and the biggest political battleground is often a school board meeting. That’s his home turf. That’s where folks know him.

But the Black Belt?  

That’s a whole different sanctuary.

Down there, politics doesn’t move on Twitter threads or suburban mailers. It moves through:

- church mothers and deacons  

- county commissioners who’ve been in office since the Clinton years  

- educators, pastors, and community anchors  

- people who know your people  

The Black Belt runs on relationships, not recognition.

And here’s the Sunday truth:  

There’s no public reporting yet showing McLaurin with deep validator networks or long‑standing ties in those counties. That doesn’t mean he can’t build them — only that the groundwork hasn’t been documented.

The issues that matter in the Black Belt aren’t always the ones that dominate suburban politics. Folks down there want to hear about:

- rural hospitals  

- jobs that don’t require leaving home  

- schools that stay open  

- roads that don’t crumble  

- economic stability  

It’s a different rhythm, a different choir, a different call‑and‑response.

And let’s be clear:  

The Black Belt is not a monolith.  

Southwest Georgia votes one way, Middle Georgia listens for another message, and East Georgia has its own priorities. A statewide candidate has to speak all those dialects — politically and culturally.

So can McLaurin win the Black Belt?  

That’s not a prediction for me to make.  

But here’s the hallelujah truth:

Suburban strength is one thing.  

Black Belt strength is another.  

And the bridge between them is built, not assumed.

As the race unfolds, we’ll see who puts in the miles, who earns the validators, and who shows up where it counts.

Until then, let the church say amen 

Black Men Ain’t Your Damn Afterthought

Let’s stop sugarcoating it.  

In American politics, the Black male voter is the most disrespected, overlooked, and mishandled vote in the whole damn system. Everybody wants the numbers, nobody wants the conversation, and both parties act like Black men are supposed to just “show up” out of tradition or guilt.

That era is dead.

For years, the Democratic Party has treated Black men like the back‑of‑the‑line voters, the ones you call last, listen to least, and blame first when turnout dips. And while that’s been happening, the GOP has been circling like a hawk, not because they suddenly understand Black men, but because they see an opening big enough to drive a tractor through.

And here’s the part the national pundits keep missing:

In Georgia, Black men aren’t a side note.  

They’re the deciding note.

This voting bloc will shape the Democratic primary whether anybody wants to admit it or not. If Black men show up, the race tilts one way. If they stay home, it tilts another. It’s that simple. The numbers don’t lie, even if the parties do.

Black men aren’t leaving anybody.  

They’re tired of being ignored, talked down to, and treated like political spare parts.

And in a state as tight as Georgia where every vote is a knife‑edge,

the most disrespected vote in America might just be the one that decides who walks out of the Democratic primary alive. 

The Hidden Mike Thurmond Vote Everyone Is Missing

Every election cycle, we get a fresh round of polling that claims to show where the Democratic primary for Governor stands. And right now, those early numbers have Keisha Lance Bottoms sitting on a comfortable lead. But if you’ve watched Georgia Democratic primaries long enough, especially outside the Atlanta media bubble you know those toplines rarely tell the whole story.

There’s a quiet factor in this race that isn’t being measured yet: the Mike Thurmond vote.

Not the loud, online, hyper-engaged crowd. Not the folks who answer every poll. I’m talking about the voters who actually decide May primaries in this state, the ones who don’t show up in early surveys but absolutely show up at the ballot box.

And that gap between what polls capture and who actually votes may end up being the difference.

Rural and Small County Democrats Are Underrepresented in Early Polling

Anyone who has worked a rural county meeting or knocked doors in small towns knows this: these voters don’t always pick up the phone for pollsters, but they vote with consistency. They’re older, they’re loyal to the party, and they value a long record of public service. That’s a lane where Thurmond has historically performed well.

Name Recognition Isn’t the Same as Primary Strength

Bottoms’ early lead is driven heavily by name ID  something any former mayor of Atlanta

naturally carries. But name ID doesn’t automatically translate into:

- Trust  

- Coalition reach  

- Or the ability to win outside Metro Atlanta 

Primary voters, especially in May, tend to be more pragmatic and less swayed by celebrity or headlines.

Undecided Voters Are Shrinking and They aren’t Breaking Evenly

As undecided voters start making choices, they often gravitate toward candidates with broader appeal across regions and demographics. That’s where a candidate like Thurmond historically gains ground. Early polls rarely capture that late movement.

Primary Electorates Are Unique

The May Democratic primary electorate is not the same as the November general electorate. It skews:

- Older  

- More consistent  

- More policy‑focused  

- Less online  

These voters show up rain or shine, and they tend to reward candidates with long-standing relationships in their communities.

A Quiet Coalition Is Forming

Talk to Democrats across the state, rural organizers, suburban pragmatists, older Black voters, labor folks, education advocates and you’ll hear a similar theme: there’s interest in a candidate with a governing record, not just name recognition.

That coalition doesn’t make noise on social media, but it shows up when it counts.

The Bottom Line I'm trying to make is polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. And right now, they’re missing a key piece of the picture: the quiet but very real Mike Thurmond vote that doesn’t show up in early surveys but does show up in May.

As we move closer to the Democratic Primary, that undercounted coalition may be the factor that reshapes this race.

It's Put Up Or Shut Up Time! Will Georgia Democrats Compete in Rural Areas, for Rural Legislative Seats in 2022?

I've always said that a Democratic vote in rural Mitchell, Marion, or Ware County counts just as much as a vote in suburban Cobb County. It’s important for Democrats to take stock of their efforts to turn out rural voters in the same way they assess their tactics in other areas of the Peach State. The party was successful last year because candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock expanded the map beyond the Metro Atlanta area and didn't take any votes for granted. Last year Democrats made significant inroads in small towns and rural areas down in central and south Georgia, and it’s crucial they keep up that effort going into the 2022 midterm elections.

Democrats have to stay competitive in rural areas of the state and that starts with recruiting a legitimate, strong candidate to take on incumbents like Austin Scott in GA-8, Buddy Carter in GA-1, Drew Ferguson in GA-3 as well as candidates for the state legislature. It’s clear that suburban and urban voters were a major driver of our victories, but they can’t forgo small towns and rural counties. If Democrats want to get things done in Atlanta and at the local level and mount a strong challenge for control of the Georgia General Assembly next year, they have to win outside of the suburbs.

Democrats can win these communities by showing up and passing policies that directly benefit rural Georgians. That’s why newly elected Senators Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff spent the final week of his campaign on a tour through Southwest and Central Georgia. Popular Democratic priorities like Medicaid expansion, which helps fund rural hospitals and extending broadband infrastructure see some of their biggest benefits in rural communities, and it’s important that they keep working hard to support these policies.

It will be tempting for democrats to look at the results of last year’s elections and conclude that Democrats here need only win votes in suburban and urban areas to be successful. That would be a mistake. As the party has grown stronger over the past few years, they've expanded their presence across the Peach State. 

There have been a lot of great candidates that did not make it to the Gold Dome and me over the years like Marc Arnett of HD 138

Marc Arnett

who came up short of unseating Mike Cheokas, or Jack Lance who ran back in 2010 for HD 8 along with the endorsement of late Governor Zell Miller but I would not consider those campaigns to be losses. It will take time to flip some of these rural areas.

Jack Lance with Zell Miller

Democrats can absolutely be competitive in rural Georgia. They just have to get back to basics, and that will start with real conversations about community issues. I am a big advocate for localized messaging and community-based organizing. Democrats love to hire people who are out of state and expect them to know how to communicate in their new turf. That doesn’t work, especially not in rural Georgia. Rural Georgians can smell an out-of-towner from miles away. They need people who live there to have these conversations. Local people are experts in their communities and should be the ones to drive the conversation.

There are some people that will not be receptive to having a conversation because they disagree on wedge issues, and that’s fine. We are all entitled to our opinions. We all have limited time and resources. It is a much better use of time to talk with someone who is willing to have a productive conversation than someone who is committed to arguing.

 

 

Georgia's Rural Black Belt Counties may hold the Key to Democratic Success in the Fall

Georgia's Black Belt Counties are counties located in Rural Georgia that consist of high unemployment rates, face acute poverty, rural exodus, inadequate education programs, low educational attainment, poor health care, substandard housing, and high levels of crime and unemployment. As of today, the Black Belt is still home to persistent poverty, poor employment, low incomes, low education, poor health, high infant mortality and dependence.

This region of Georgia also hold the key for Democrats this November if they want to win several statewide seats.

It consist of all of SW Georgia 2nd District: (except Lee County), South Central Georgia Counties of the 8th District: Tift, Worth, Turner, Irwin, Ben Hill, Wilcox, Crisp, Colquitt, Cook Counties, Middle Ga Counties of Laurens, Dodge, Telfair, Montgomery, Treutlen, Pulaski, Macon, Taylor, Peach, Twiggs. And it consist of all of the 12th District:, except Chathamm, Effingham, Bryan, Richmond, Glascock.

These are places where the black population is as low as 20% to as high as 70% of the county's population. This is where democrats in their attempt to win votes here in rural Georgia have to make a great showing if they want to be successful on Nov 2.

As democrats should know, attracting the rural white vote has been a troublesome for democrats for sometime now, but the way the Ga GOP has led the state since its complete takeover in 2005, they have left plenty of material for democrats to run with, but that is "IF" democrats don't mess it up.

The economy has hit everyone hard in Georgia, but it has hit rural black voters the hardest. Where educational is low, economic opportunities are scarce, high crimes & substandard housing conditions are the weakest & unemployment is among the highest in the state, the Black Belt Region should be a area where democrats should make their biggest gains. But the history of Black Voters is that they do not turn out for mid-term elections, which is true. Another logic is that Black voters need to have a reason to get out to vote. That is also true!

But of all the years not to get out to vote, this is the year that Black voters need to get to the polls. Just like everyone else, they are affected by the economy, education, crime, the lack of job opportunities. With Obama not on the ballot, no way they are going to get out to the polls to vote. Having black candidates running for office along is not enough for black voters to get out to the polls. Democrats have to go to some of these Black Belt Counties like Calhoun, Peach, Turner, Meriwheter, Troup, Greene, Burke, Clinch, Worth Counties & make their case that better days are ahead & that the current policies hasn't had any positive effect on them, That goes for White Voters who live in the Black Belt as well.

Despite what is going on Nationally with democrats, here in Georgia, things have gotten bad under a republican controlled state government & just like Roy Barnes is doing, if democrats running in Senate & House races, as well as other statewide offices (Labor, Lt Governor, for example) make that argument, it will be a successful 2010 for Georgia Democrats. Like I've been saying, it will come down for rural Georgia for Democrats.