GA-Sen, GA-Gov: Isakson Surprisingly Weak, Gov Race A Tossup

Research 2000's latest poll takes us to the great state of Georgia, and tests several possible matchups for the United States Senate race (featuring incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson) and the gubernatorial race (featuring a cast of thousands).

Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 47
Roy Barnes (D) 43

Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 48
Jim Marshall (D) 40

Speaking of the Governor's race, they polled that, too. We pitted Republicans John Oxendine (state Insurance Commissioner) and Karen Handel (Secretary of State) against Democrats Barnes, Thurbert Baker (Attorney General), and David Poythress (former Secretary of State and Labor Commissioner).

John Oxendine (R) 46
Roy Barnes (D) 44

John Oxendine (R) 47
Thurbert Baker (D) 42

John Oxendine (R) 47
David Poythress (D) 43

Roy Barnes (D) 45
Karen Handel (R) 39

Thurbert Baker (D) 42
Karen Handel (R) 40

David Poythress (D) 43
Karen Handel (R) 39

All three Democrats trail Oxendine by a little bit, and lead Handel by a little bit. It looks like all of the non-stop campaigning by David Poythress is starting to pay off. Poythress name I.D. was his biggest hurdle, but now with polls showing him leading Karen Handel & trailing John Oxendine by 4%, Poythress is now the darkhorse candidate in the democratic field.

Public Policy Poll back in November had Thurbert Baker with 39% to Isakson 45% & Jim Marshall with 38% to Isakson 47%.

We may have an open congressional seat in 2010.

With news that Nathan Deal forming a exploratory committee to run for Governor of Georgia, although it will become an open seat & heavily republican, democrats should not give up a chance of taking this seat from the republicans. Possible democratic contenders:

1992 Congressional Candidate & Attorney, U.S. Army Veteran & former State Rep. Wycliffe "Wyc" Orr (D-Gainesville)

1996 Congressional Candidate, Lawyer, Former State Rep. Ken Poston (D-Ringgold). Poston also donated money to the 2008 Obama Campaign.

Hall County Democratic Party Chairman Mike Freeman

Pickens County Democratic Party Chairman David Robinson

Barnes has early lead among dems: Cagle leads GOP FIELD.

from The Insider Advantage Georgia: (4/15/09) What’s in a name? Plenty, if the 2010 race for Georgia governor is still more than a year away. A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows that Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes easily lead the fields among candidates in their respective primaries.

Q: If the Republican primary for governor in 2010 were being held today, who would you vote for if the choices were:

Casey Cagle (28%)
John Oxendine (14%)
Karen Handle (6%)
Austin Scott (4%)
Sam Olens (2%)
Undecided/No opinion (46%)

The poll was conducted April 13 by InsiderAdvantage among 650 registered voters, for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%. Respondents were screened for whether they would vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries. All data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.

Q: If you were voting in the Democratic primary, who would you vote for if the choices were:

Roy Barnes (35%)
Thurbert Baker (11%)
Dubose Porter (3%)
David Poythress (2%)
Undecided/No opinion (49%)

This question was conducted among 490 registered voters, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

Among Republicans, Cagle’s stature as lieutenant governor clearly boosts him ahead of his nearest rival, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine. All the more is Cagle boosted by whatever statewide publicity was generated by the recent regular session of the General Assembly.

One might doubt how prominent the legislature’s recent activities made Cagle, but the mystery is lifted somewhat when it’s considered that nearly half of the poll respondents have yet to decide. That means that despite Cagle’s statistical two-to-one lead, the race for the GOP nomination for governor is wide open as the bell rings to get it underway.

Karen Handel earns her 6% largely from the name ID she has in her native Fulton County and environs. Whether top-level support will boost her into serious contention remains to be seen.

On the Democratic side, Roy Barnes’ decision whether to run is the wheel that is turning the cart of the 2010 governor’s race. He has far more name ID than any Democrat or Republican running, and it shows in his numbers. Were he to run, he would be the clear favorite on the Democratic side. The only negative for him is that half of the respondents were unwilling to commit to him – or anyone – despite the knowledge of Barnes they have from his four years as governor.

Thurbert Baker’s chances would seem to hinge on cobbling together a coalition of black voters and those unhappy with Barnes. But black voters, like white and other ones, aren’t paying much attention to the race right now. If and when the time comes, Baker’s race will become more widely known among blacks, and his percentage of the vote would rise correspondingly. If Barnes does not run, Baker could dramatically become the favorite, thanks largely to the huge proportion of blacks that make up the Democratic electorate in this state.

The minimal early support shown for Dubose Porter and David Poythress say less about their qualifications than it does about the relative obscurity that lesser state officials operate under. If Barnes does not run, Porter and Poythress could probably be expected to split the white vote, potentially leaving Baker victorious in the primary.

Republican Congressional Gains in the Peach State are Grim.

In 2006, Republicans came within a hair of taking two Georgia congressional seats from the Democrats, garnering 49% in the 8^th District and 49.7% in the 12^th. But in 2008, due in part to the large turnout of African-American voters spurred by Barack Obama’s candidacy, the Republican share of the voted declined substantially in both districts. There is now talk among some GOPers about making a major effort in one or both districts next year, when Obama will not be on the ballot and the popularity of his administration may have dimmed.

Jim Marshall (D) 8th District:

There are some factors that suggest a Republican congressional candidate could do well in the 8^th. McCain carried the district over Obama by 56% to 43%, and in the US Senate runoff in December between US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and former lawmaker Jim Martin (D), Chambliss won 60% to 40%. But, says a close observer of Peach State politics, “There’s a perception that Marshall is out of reach….He does a pretty good job of distancing himself from Obama and has a fairly moderate voting record.” Indeed, National Journal scored Marshall 55% conservative, 45% liberal in its latest rating. He did, however, vote for Obama’s stimulus package.

Perhaps sensing that Marshall is not vulnerable, no GOPers have indicated they plan to challenge him next year. Rick Goddard, former commanding general at Warner Robbins Air Force Base, garnered 43% against Marshall in 2008, not a strong enough showing to guarantee a re-run. But he has not ruled out another race and his name usually gets mentioned in any discussion of potential challengers to Marshall.

Former 3^rd District Congressman Mac Collins, who suffered a razor-thin (49%) loss in the District in 2006, did not run again in 2008, mainly because the Republican establishment -- in Washington as well as in Georgia -- got behind Goddard’s candidacy. There have been no signs that Collins will run, but he gets mentioned also.

John Barrow (D) 12th District:

US Rep. John Barrow (D) was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2008. At the same time Obama carried the district with 55%, and in the December 2008 US Senate runoff, Democrat Martin carried the district by 51% to 49% over Chambliss. The base of the Democratic strength here is the large African-American population, which accounts for about 43% of the electorate.

Despite these daunting statistics, Republican Wayne Moseley, an orthopedic surgeon and a veteran of the war in Iraq, has already announced his candidacy and pledged to spend $500,000 of his own money in his campaign.

At least two other Republicans are potential candidates for next year’s race. State Rep. Jon Burns is from Effingham County, which has the largest number of GOP-leaning voters in the district. State Rep. Bob Lane is from Bulloch County, the second largest Republican County. “Both are pretty popular,” says a Republican district insider.

John Stone, a former aide to the late Congressman Charlie Norwood (R), suffered a 34%-to-66% loss to Barrow last year and has announced that he will not run for the seat in 2010.

I'm starting to become very concerned.

With the entry of Minority Leader DuBose Porter (D-Dublin), near my neck of the woods, I'm a bit concerned about a bloody primary. I have a suggestion: one of the announced candidates drop down & run for Lt. Governor. No one seems to want to run for the post. I've said Michael Thurmond would be the favorite in the primary & the general election if he runs, but he has been silent on that front. Whoever has the lowest numbers as far as fundraising & in the polls against the field of republican candidates by the end of the next legislative session should drop down to Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, or Agriculture Commissioner. We DO NOT NEED A HARD FOUGHT, BRUISING, BLOODY PRIMARY. Let the GOP have the blood & we stay so fresh so clean. What do you think?

Ga. AG Baker's bid for governor draws criticism

ATLANTA - Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker's Wednesday announcement that he will run for governor on the Democratic ticket did not come as a surprise to former Gov. Roy Barnes, who many experts say will easily be the party frontrunner if he enters the race. The news did draw quick criticism from several well-known political pundits.

"I did know he was considering it," said Barnes, who remains coy about another gubernatorial bid despite mounting speculation by political experts that he will run again. Barnes said he likely will announce his decision in June.

Matt Towery, chairman of Insider Advantage, the Internet news service and polling agency, suggested Baker may have entered the race to discourage Barnes from running.

Shipp believes Baker has fallen out of favor with the black community for how he handled the case of Genarlow Wilson in 2007, a Georgia man sentenced to 10 years for engaging in consensual oral sex with a 15-year-old when he was 17. The Georgia Supreme Court released Wilson, a highly touted prep football prospect at the time, after two years.

"That figured into the decision to get out of the AG race," Shipp said.

Shipp said anytime a black candidate enters a race, it divides the Democratic vote. And since there are not enough black voters in Georgia to elect a black candidate without support from other voters, the white Democratic candidate simply ends up being harmed and the Republican ends up being helped.

Now I like Bill Shipp, but he is so wrong on this sunject. This is not 1970, it's 2009 & a black democrat can win in a conservative state if he or she have the right wiews & platforms that can appeal to the elctorate. One case will not deter baker from running & this is a man that have won 3 times statewide. But he has something that can a big asset for him. Zell Miller. The two men are & have remained close & I expect miller to throw his support behind baker for governor even as he has been republicans since 2004.

David Poythress candidate for governor in 2010.

David Poythress, candidate for govenor was on What's Goin' On radio show with Wilson R. Smith of Vidalia back in January & I just got finished listening to his interview, which was a good one & he said something that is really important to me: he realizes that there are democrats all over the state of Georgia, not just in Metro Atlanta, ( he was referring to former gov. Roy Barnes possible comeback for governor in 2010). That is going to be the issue for whoever wins the nomination.

Now I have not endorsed anyone for governor yet, but Poythress seems to have it down that democrats need to get back to places like Vidalia, Ft. Oglethorpe, Hinesville, Americus to fight for those votes that have been taken for granted by the republicans.

In this interview, David Poythress explains why the people of Georgia should consider the conservative leadership of a Georgia Democrat. David is not a new comer to Georgia politics. He has held various state positions, including stints as Assistant Attorney General, Deputy Revenue Commissioner and Secretary of State. In 1992 he campaigned in his first statewide race and was elected State Labor Commissioner. Although he was re-elected to the position in 1994, he ultimately resigned to run for Governor in 1998. Roy Barnes was the successful candidate in that race.

As for the Democrats, they have failed to aggressively take the Republicans to task for their policies. David hopes to change that and give the people of Georgia a clear choice in leadership in 2010.