Monday, January 30, 2012

50/50 Obama gets re-elected..But what If President Obama DOES get Re-Elected in November?

Hmmmm......, as we learned in 2010 and as we’re learning to some extent during the early month of the 2012 election cycle, the Tea Party has also caused the party to go off on bizarre tangents at times and to take insane stands like appearing to be willing to take the nation to the brink of financial chaos back in August. The “no compromise” position that the Tea Party represents may be good for internal party consumption and it may make the true believers happy, but it’s not good government and it’s probably not a good long term political strategy. A loss in 2012 that gets pinned on the movement would likely re-energize the “establishment” and more traditional conservatives in the party and cause a backlash against some of the more radical elements of the Tea Party. In the long run, this would probably be good for the GOP.

If President Obama wins it will almost certainly be with less electoral votes and percentage of the popular vote than 2008, making him the first president to win reelection with less votes since Woodrow Wilson back in 1916. What would President Obama be able to do in his second term? He's been politically impotent since January 2011 and there's no reason to think that this election year will be different. With 23 of the of the 33 senate seats up for reelection in 2012 held by Democrats the Senate you can it's almost likely to be held by Republicans. The only possible Democratic pickups would be in Massachusetts and Nevada. Many of these Democratically held seats are open in 2012 due to retirements. It's possible for Democrats to take back the House but they need to gain 26 seats to do so.

Although it seems bleak for the president, there is an awful lot that he can accomplish using one simple tool: The Presidential Veto. A re-elected President Obama COULD veto any extension of the Bush Tax Cuts, but that'll hurt the economic recovery, oversee the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, around 2014, he could call for changes to the HealthCare Bill..let's face it, that bill will not be repealed, despite all the tough talk by those on the right & he and can start high profile fights with Republicans over issues like the closing of Guantanamo, the federal budget, and the future of entitlement programs. Obama's second term would be marked by his ability to ironically prevent change. His re-election will prevent the privatization of Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security, which is one of the top goals of the GOP. With the political center being so wide open, the president should drop anchor there while the hard left & the hard right battle it out, tearing each other apart....The odds are against the president winning re-election, but its very possible that he will win a second term.

Barack Obama: The obstructionist for Republican change.

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