Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Are Republicans Underestimating John Barrow's ability to win in new 12th?

A look at the newly proposed 12th District finds Conservative Democrat John Barrow in the same position former Congressman Jim Marshall was in when the republicans redrew the old 3rd district (now 8th) in a mid-decade redistricting effort to oust him in favor of ex-congressman Mac Collins back in 2006.

Back then it was said that Marshall political career was over when the republicans redrew the district to favor Mac Collins who was seeking a return to congress after his failed attempt at the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Democrat Zell Miller in 2004.

But it wasn't as Marshall went on to win in the newly redrawn district 51% to Collins 49%, in which Collins to this day hasn't conceded, which shows how much class Collins has.

It took a anti-government, anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi, Tea Party 2010 wave election to finally defeat Jim Marshall. Republicans back then underestimated Jim Marshall ability to adapt & win over his new constituents in the southern & Norther Half of the 8th District.

The same thing is occurring here with John Barrow. His 12th district has been drastically altered in a effort to defeat him in 2012. Barrow, the only remaining White Southern Democrat in the deep south is now one of the most endangered democrats in the county as a result. The new district is now a republican leaning district, rather the democratic leaning district Barrow once occupied.

Republicans are making a mistake & underestimating Barrow's ability to appeal to independent conservatives & swing voters alike. Counties such as Laurens, Coffee, Telfair, Wheeler are counties that Barrow should do well in, as well as Jeff Davis, while republican strongholds Appling & Columbia Counties are areas that he will have to crank it up a bit.

Barrow is a able campaigner & a strong fundraiser, in addition he has crossover appeal among some republicans just as Jim Marshall had when he was serving as 8th District representative.

I expect Barrow to do well in the new 12th district. Barrow will have to relocate to another city in the 12th with all of Chatham County now in Rep. Jack Kingston's 1st District. The logical location would be Augusta, but if I were Barrow, I'd move to Metter, Dublin, or Statesboro for strategic purposes.

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