Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Ross Tolleson, Sanford Bishop, Austin Scott & the outlook in 2012

Don't rule it out. With a special session on the horizon to re-draw the congressional districts its not out of the realm of possibility that republicans could put Austin Scott into the 2nd Congressional District to go up against Sanford Bishop i 2012.

Here's why I think it may happen

I remember back in 2009 when republicans were trying to find a challenger to Jim Marshall for 2010. Early on it was thought that State Senator Ross Tolleson would make a run at Marshall, but he decided against it at the time, because he wanted to wait until his twin daughters finish high school. This was back in 2009 when he said this. He has made no secret that he wants to run for congress & 2012 seems like the best time since the GOP now have control of the House.


The one obstacle standing in his way is Austin Scott & he just defeated Bluedog Democrat Jim Marshall in the wave election that helped him in that quest.

So what a man to do?

Well this where redistricting comes in play

Scott by some accounts is not well liked by some in the GOP up there in the state house. If Tolleson still has aspirations for a run for higher office, then they'll do what it takes to make the path for Tolleson as easy as they can & that means lumping Scott into the second against Sanford Bishop who narrowly escaped defeat by Mike Keown.

The Georgia GOP can say 'hey if can knock off one democratic incumbent, why not another" Its something to think about here. No way Tolleson runs if Scott is still in the 8th. No way, No how!

A open 8th Congressional District would be much more appealing to Tolleson that one occupied by another GOPer in Scott. Making that move will have consequences for the Georgia GOP. Despite Scott defeating Marshall, he won't defeat Bishop in '12. With those divorce records now unsealed with all sorts of unsavory accusations hurled by his wife against him & vice-versa, the luster, the shine of Austin Scott will be long gone. Plus you can expect the district to become more democratic with the state still being under the VRA of 1965 & in a presidential year, democratic voters will turn out at a higher level that in 2010

If this happens, not only you will have not only a open 8th District seat, but a open State Senate seat in Central Georgia, which will be a prime opportunity. Nelson Carswell who ran for HD 143 last year would be the ideal candidate democrats could recruit to run for that Senate Seat in the 20th district. DuBose Porter, if he have the urges to go back to Atlanta could be another potential candidate, but I doubt it. Governor is in his future if he decides to make another in 3 years. He's only in his mid 50s.

An Austin Scott-Sanford Bishop matchup may well happen next year. But all hinges on Ross Tolleson & his apirations for higher office


Slyram said...

Interesting...very interesting.

Slyram said...

Interesting...very interesting.

MaryAlice said...

Good Analysis of the 2012 election already taking shape.

Let's see the redistricting. I all for anyone to oust Bishop

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