Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Marshall Internal Poll shows him in lead at 47%-44%

Jim Marshall who like other Southern Democrats is in the fight of his political life released a poll showing him leading Austin Scott 47% to 44%

The poll was conducted by the Mellman Group, which it surveyed 400 likely voters.

Here'e what it says:

Poll was conducted on Oct 17-19. This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 likely November 2010 election voters in Georgia’s 8th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone October 17-19, 2010 using registration-based sampling. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups/

Though the district leans Republican (45% Republican,33% Democratic) and isoverwhelmingly conservative (60%), our survey, completed last week, shows Marshall
holding a 3-point lead over Scott (47% to 44%) with 9% undecided.

This vote is in many ways consistent with the personal standing of both candidates.
Marshall is well known (82% Hard ID) and well liked in the district. Forty-eight percent (48%) view him favorably, 14 points higher than the percentage that views him unfavorably.

By comparison, Austin Scott is less well known (55% hard ID) and the 33% who view him favorably is 11 points higher than the 22% who view him unfavorably. Marshall is holding his base (87% among Democrats) and garners significant crossover support
from Republicans (19%). On the other side, Scott is getting 73% of the Republican vote.

Marshall has a slight 5-point edge among independents (45% to 40%). And though Scott holds a large lead among white voters (57% to 32%), Marshall garners overwhelming support from African- Americans (84% to 10%) who comprise 26% of voters in the District. This 26% African American turnout is the same percentage Marshall won with in his narrow 2006 victory.

In short, the Congressional election in Georgia’s 8th District is going to come down to the wire.

This morning The Hill poll showed Marshall down by 13%, 50% to 37% to Scott, while Landmark Communications showed similar findings.

I tweeted yesterday that this race could be like the one in 2006 between Mac Collins & Jim Marshall, with either candidate winning.

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