Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Does Mike Keown Really Have a Shot at Unseating Sanford Bishop?

There is alot of chatter going around that State Rep. Mike Keown (R-Coolidge) can knock off Incumbent Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) this november. The Cook Political Report has updated its race rating for the 2nd congressional district of Georgia, moving it from "Safe" Democratic to "Likely" Democratic.

Mike Keown reporteed raising $368,750 and has $237,551 left in the bank while Bishop says his campaign raised $662,668 and has $404,594 in the bank.

But why do some think Keown has a shot? They point to Bishop's support for the much maligned Heathcare Reform Legislation, his early support for Cap & Trade among other things. Keown say its time for new leadership in the 2nd congressional district because as he puts it Bishop is no longer listening or representing the citizens of the 2nd. He has voted more with Nancy Pelosi than the ultra liberal Barney Frank, the stimulus bills and the bank and auto buyouts, as well as co-sponsoring legislation that would allow labor unions an easy entry into SW Georgia.

But it will be a tough row to hoe for Keown is the district has given Bishop on average of 68% of the vote over the last 10 years & the district is also the historic home of Jimmy Carter and has a reputation for being progressive on racial issues. The District at last checked in around 49% White, 47% Black after the 2005 Gerrymandering by the Georgia GOP.

Arguably the most conservative African-American in Congress, Bishop is a member of the Blue Dog Democrats, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats in Congress. He is known is the "Peanut" congressman due to his staunch support of the largest agricultural crop in Southwest Georgia & agriculture in General.

Now Bishop has worked to represent the values and morals of his district: "God, country, work, family, and guns" - through his support for several Constitutional amendments. Bishop has co-sponsored amendments to the U.S. Constitution protecting the U.S. flag against acts of desecration, preserving the institution of marriage as between a man and a woman, ensuring a balanced federal budget, and allowing voluntary, non-denominational prayer in schools and other public localities. He also is a strong supporter of Second Amendment rights, receiving the grade of “A+” from the National Rifle Association.

Keown has received considerable support from the district & mots likely will get support from the NRCC. How much support though is remain to be seen. Bishop is the favorite to win re-election barring some unforeseen circumstance that will totally swing this race in the favor of Mike Keown.

It's hard to see Bishop being beatened this year despite his votes for the healthcare bill & other measures that has riled his critics. I'm not about to write off Bishop just yet.

If I had to make a prediction on this race, I say Bishop 62% Keown 38%.


SWGA Thinker said...

I think if I had to call it right now, I'd say Bishop 57% and Keown 43%. His grassroots go deeper than most people think. Either way, the end result is the same: he loses.

I think that he can pull it off if he can find something major that will hurt Bishop's credibility with the farmers. Unfortunately for Keown, the Cap and Trade argument isn't working completely well.

Keith said...

I agree with that assessment SWGA. The fam vote will not abandoned Bishop due to the CAP & TRADE legislation. And most of the conservative democrats aren't going to leave him neither. He may lose some independents in the process, but like you said either way Keown loses. One or two issues will not defeat an entrenced incumbent like Bishop.

Anonymous said...

I say 52-48 and it could go either way!

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