Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Crucial Primaries Today in Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Kentucky

In Arkansas, Incumbent Blanche Lincoln, a moderate democrats is being challenged from her left from Bill Salter, Lt. Govenror of Arkansas.

Halter has the support of liberal activists such as MoveOn, League of Conservation Voters, and unions. The US Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Lincoln. Former President Bill Clinton and President Obama have also cut radio ads for Lincoln.

In Pennsylvania, Incumbent Arlen Spector, republican turned democrats will face Joe Sestak for the democratic nomination.

Spector, a longtime political survivor, switched parties last year when it looked increasingly likely that he would lose the 2010 Republican primary to a more conservative candidate. Now, on the eve of the primary, it is quite possible that Specter won't survive the Democratic one either: his opponent, Congressman Joe Sestak, has been charging hard in the closing weeks with ads that use Specter's own words to portray his switch as self-serving. Polls statewide on election eve show the contest as too close to call: the Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll today showed the two tied at 44 percent, and the RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Sestak a 3-percentage-point edge, within the margin of error for most polls.

My money's on Sestak to win the nomination.

In Kentucky, you have two interesting primaries. First the GOP primary of Rand Paul, son of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul & Trey Grayson.
There is every reason to believe that Rand Paul will win Tuesday's Republican Senate primary in Kentucky. And, given the state's conservative leanings and the political climate of 2010, there's every reason to believe he'll go on to win the November election, no matter which candidate Democrats nominate.

Paul said a clear-cut victory by him in Kentucky's Republican primary for U.S. Senate would be a strong showing for the tea party movement.

His main rival in the hard-fought Senate primary, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is backed by Kentucky's most powerful Republican, Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. Paul has the backing of Kentucky's other Republican senator, Jim Bunning, who is retiring after two terms. At last check, Paul was leading in double-digits against Grayson.

On the democratic side, you have Jack Conway & Dan Mongiardo.

Mongiardo is trying to hold on to what had been a huge lead two months ago — one that has wilted under a withering and well-funded television ad campaign by Conway.

Conway has raised more money than Mongiardo and has contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own wealth.

The Bluegrass Poll found Mongiardo with 38 percent support to Conway's 37 percent; 12 percent said they haven't made up their mind.

The poll found that Mongiardo leads among men, older voters, conservatives and church-goers. He also leads among poorer voters, those who oppose abortion rights and gun owners.

Conway leads among women, younger voters, liberals, and those who favor abortion rights, as well as among those who don't own guns and earn more than $50,000 a year.

Mongiardo, a Hazard physician, holds big leads in Eastern and Western Kentucky.

Conway, who is the State Attorney General has closed the gap with Mongiardo & is within striking distance of winning the nomination.

I say Mongiardo is the favorite to win the nod & may give democrats their best chance of winning the open senate seat.

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