Thursday, April 8, 2010

Barnes Leads in New Insider Advantage Poll. And it Maybe Time for Porter & Camon To Do Some Soul Searching

A new Insider Advantage Poll shows Roy Barnes with a big lead over the other announced democratic challengers.

Roy Barnes (D-Mableton) 47%

Thurbert Baker (D-Stone Mountain) 18%

David Poythress (D-Norcross) 6%

DuBose Porter (D-Dublin) 5%

Undecided/No Opinion 24%

Carl Camon wasn't polled in the new survey.

Analysis from InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery:

“Roy Barnes continues to enjoy his strong name ID among voters. He could easily win the primary race without a runoff. But there are two flies in the ointment for Barnes. First, the greatest share of African-American support that he is now the beneficiary of could shift if Thurbert Baker [an African-American] were to have a significant presence on TV.

Second, right now it appears that enthusiasm among voters for the Democratic primary will be much lower than for the Republican primary. This could make the Democratic race much more difficult to win without a runoff.”

The way things looks now it will be a three-man race between Barnes, Baker & Poythress. As for Porter (DuBose), the longer the legislative session drag on, the more it will hurt him in getting out to meet voters & raise money for his campaign.

So someone has to ask the question here: What will Porter do? Do he stay in the race for governor risking defeat & being out of the Georgia Political Arena? Or does he look elsewhere for another race such as Agriculture Commissioner, where there is no democrat running at this moment, State School Superintendent where education is the main piece of his platform. Forget about the U.S Senate, as he has no interest in running for the senate against his friend Johnny Isakson. I like Porter, but it maybe time for him to consider his options.

Carl Camon raised a little over $4,000 & has $104 on hand. I'm a big fan of Carl's & thinks he has the broadest platform of all of the candidates for governor. He's appealing & he brings a new voice to the democratic party, but it maybe time for him to look elsewhere as well like State School Superintendent which fits his background as a educator perfectly. Having him in that race would make him the favorite to win the nomination for State School Superintendent as a result of his name I.D. among rank & file democrats, or he could run for Jay Shaw's HD 176 seat which is being vacated by Shaw as he will move on to the GDOT Board for the 1st Congressional District. Shaw's son Jason Shaw has annouced he will run for his father's seat in november, most likely as a independent & then probably as a republican in 2012. Camon is very familiar with that district & if he decided to run for that seat, he would be the odds-on favorite to win the seat, despite Jason Shaw being in the race. Or he could run for the State Senate against Greg Goggins (R-Douglas).

The less candidates the democrats have, the better it will be for them in november. Democrats need to preserve money & not get caught up in a runoff that would take up money needed to run a general election campaign against the republicans. The same goes for all other statewide races as well

1 comment:

Jeff said...

I'm still thinking we may yet see *DuBose* Porter - not Carol - running for Lt Gov. With his legislative experience, it would be a solid fit for him. Honestly, that is one position I WANT someone with legislative experience in more than any other position.

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