Racial Gerrymandering is no longer needed if you ask me. I'm a strong believer that majority-minority districts are no longer needed because blacks have made vast improvements in American society. The strides blacks have made in American society are greater than any other minority group in this country. But I will admit that black had the furthest to go & blacks still occupy a lower socioeconomic position in society, but chooses to focus on the improvements blacks have made.
Those arguing for majority-minority districts believe that because of continued racism whites will not vote for black candidates, which is not true. Look at former Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder as examples of Black(Moderate) candidates who won contest in their perspective states.
Now those candidates with drastically liberal views, be if they're black or white, will rarely be elected to office in the south. Blacks constitute an ideological minority and this explains their inability to be elected in the south. When blacks are elected in the south it is often because they are conservative.
One thing is certain, that the creation of majority-minority districts unfairly stigmatizes black voters. It gives the perception that blacks are relegated to a position of helplessness in our society. They can get no where in society unless they are given special favors. Further, underlying the creation of majority-minority districts is the premise that race is the most important factor when choosing representatives. Creating districts categorizes people in terms of race that is a dangerous practice. The entire goal of the civil rights movement was to stop viewing people in terms of race and to start viewing people in terms of individuals and the majority-minority districting system does just that.
Despite the fact that blacks are in general more liberal on some issues, majority-minority districts are not necessary for blacks to win elections. Those supporting racial gerrymandering commonly believe that 65 percent of a district must be black to ensure a black representative will be elected. However, a number of blacks have been elected in districts in which less that 50 percent of the districts’ population was black. (Sanford Bishop, Floyd Griffin, State Senate in 1992, Michael Thurmond, State House in 1986)
Also interests are not linked to race. In other words, a white person can represent the interest of blacks just as a black can represent the interests of whites. This is because interests can not be identified solely on the basis of race. Substantive representation is more important that descriptive representation. Descriptive representation has no bearing on substantive representation. there is no guarantee that a black official will support the same policies as most blacks do. Gerrymandering is becoming an ineffective method of ensuring minority representation. When majority-minority districts are created, first a pocket of blacks must be target. We are running out of areas to target and create majority-minority districts. 10 years from now, we can expect severe limitations on what can be achieved by relying on the creation of black districts to ensure the election of black politicians.
Yesterday, the Department of Justice approved the new maps redrawn by Georgia Republicans & as a result the Georgia Legislative Black Caucus has threatened to fight the DOJ over the "Affirmative Action" Racial Gerrymandering Maps.
How to best draw representational lines raises a fundamental philosophical and practical issue for African-Americans--the problem of duality. The problem takes many forms: integration versus separation, inclusion versus communal obligation, and as we can see in the reapportionment battle, direct representation by blacks versus black influence over mostly white officeholders. Strong arguments can be made on both sides. 10 years ago, Many African-American political leaders, including many members of the Georgia Legislative Black Caucus, felt that having direct representation is more important than preserving or "saving" white Democratic seats. So they, along with the-then minority Republicans came together to create more black districts, which in effect hung white rural democrats out to dry. As a result of those actions, you now have a democratic legislature that is 98% Black. Now they're saying the new maps discriminate against African Americans. Black Dems suck as Rep Tyrone Brooks (R-Atlanta) who led the effort to maximize black representation now have to lay in the bed they made themselves.
"Affirmative Action Racial Gerrymandering," as I call it, creates more division within the state and may not be in the best long-term self-interest of the African-American community. Drawing districts--whether they be school districts, city or county council districts, legislative districts, or U.S. House districts--with a first priority of maximizing the number of majority-minority districts re segregates communities, causes representatives to see issues mainly in terms of black and white, divides communities into multiple districts so that they lose a clear single voice devoted to them, and has a general negative impact on race relations. Creating majority African American districts tends to pack districts with African-American voters so that representatives from neighboring nearly all-white districts pay little attention to the needs of blacks.
Concentrating black voters in districts to elect black representatives dilute support among other representatives for bills favored by blacks. Spreading black voters across more districts resulted in the election of representatives who were more sensitive to black interests. Its a waste of time & effort for democrats to go to court over the maps. Just Let it be! With 63 democrats in the house, 20 in the senate, this map will force democrats to compete in areas that they had written off in the past. The "Big Tent Party" now has to live up to that monikor & re-open it arms for conservative-minded democrats in its ranks. If not, then they better get comfortable being in the wilderness for the next 10, 20, 30 years.
Showing posts with label Redistricting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Redistricting. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Thursday, June 16, 2011
My Own Version of Reapportionment: Georgia Style 2011
Here's what the districts would look like if I were redrawing the maps (Sorry I didn't include the Metro Atlanta Districts) If you are the democrats here in Georgia especially Barrow, Bishop, I would hope & pray that this version or something similar would be the end result after the special session. (Note: Clayton is still in Scott's District, not in Bishop's)
In the 2nd, I included all of Muscogee County, as well as Upson comes into the fold. Tift, Cook are brought back into the district. The District will be knocking on the door of 50% African-American population. And it sets up nicely for Bishop's replacement when he decides to retire from congress. But it may spur more GOP candidates in running for this seat with the inclusion of Tift & Cook County, but Bishop represented these counties before & did very well in them
In the 8th, Tift (Scott's former home is now gone) & East Atlanta Republican Suburb of Walton County is brought in the 8th, all of Newton is now included as well & Lamar County is back as well. This district should help Scott in retaining the seat. Bibb County stays in the 8th. It belongs in Middle Georgia, not in a SW Georgia based district. The district remains a republican tilt district, but if the right democrat comes along, it can be won back by the dems.
In the 12th, Chatham is gone from the district & Greene, Morgan, & Putnam is brought into the district, all of Richmond Co is now included & Johnson Co is gone, making the district a Tossup/lean democratic district. And it will force Barrow to either run in the 1st (Jack Kingston) or relocate to Augusta. Remember, here in Georgia, a candidate does not have to reside in his or her district to run for congress, (Saxby Chambliss back in 1994 lived in the 2nd, but represented the old 3rd, now 8th District)
In the 3rd, Westmoreland District remains safe, no worries there for the GOP
In the 10th, Broun loses Greene, Morgan, & Putnam Counties, but that's offset with the inclusion of fast growing Barrow County. Its still safe for Broun for now!
In the 2nd, I included all of Muscogee County, as well as Upson comes into the fold. Tift, Cook are brought back into the district. The District will be knocking on the door of 50% African-American population. And it sets up nicely for Bishop's replacement when he decides to retire from congress. But it may spur more GOP candidates in running for this seat with the inclusion of Tift & Cook County, but Bishop represented these counties before & did very well in themIn the 8th, Tift (Scott's former home is now gone) & East Atlanta Republican Suburb of Walton County is brought in the 8th, all of Newton is now included as well & Lamar County is back as well. This district should help Scott in retaining the seat. Bibb County stays in the 8th. It belongs in Middle Georgia, not in a SW Georgia based district. The district remains a republican tilt district, but if the right democrat comes along, it can be won back by the dems.
In the 12th, Chatham is gone from the district & Greene, Morgan, & Putnam is brought into the district, all of Richmond Co is now included & Johnson Co is gone, making the district a Tossup/lean democratic district. And it will force Barrow to either run in the 1st (Jack Kingston) or relocate to Augusta. Remember, here in Georgia, a candidate does not have to reside in his or her district to run for congress, (Saxby Chambliss back in 1994 lived in the 2nd, but represented the old 3rd, now 8th District)
In the 3rd, Westmoreland District remains safe, no worries there for the GOP
In the 10th, Broun loses Greene, Morgan, & Putnam Counties, but that's offset with the inclusion of fast growing Barrow County. Its still safe for Broun for now!
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
The Cost of Reapportionment
When trying to redraw a legislative district here in Georgia, if you want to place 55,000 voters into a current rural house district, do not leave out a entire county in the process.
And while redrawing a legislative district, don't split a county in two, three districts
And while redrawing a legislative district, don't dilute minority voting strength in a particular area to ensure the election of certain candidates.
And while the VRA protects Majority-Minority Districts, please do not create anymore of these type of districts. Where would they be located. Democrats,(Black Democrats) in general, the more you push for these type of districts, the more you are ensuring the democratic party of a permanent minority status over the next 10-15 years. So no more deal making with republicans over "GIVE US MORE MAJORITY-MINORITY DISTRICTS & IN RETURN, WE'LL SUPPORT ANY MAP YOU PUT FORWARD".
And plus this only solidify the notion that if you're black, you belong in the Democratic Party & if you're white, you belong in the Republican Party.
A BLACK & BROWN GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY, SPRINKLED WITH WHITE LIBERALS CANNOT WIN IN GEORGIA! ESPECIALLY STATEWIDE!!
No more Racially Gerrymandered Districts (just as they want to do with the 2nd by moving predominently Black, Inner city of Macon into Sanford Bishop's 2nd Congressional District, while leaving the unincorporated areas in the 8th District, held by first term Congressman Austin Scott.
Keep an eye on Gerrymandering over in the 12th Congressional District held by John Barrow, a conservative democrat. Despite Barrow only needing around 660+ more voters to meet the 692,000+ needed, the Georgia Republicans will "likely" alter the district significantly to lessen the chances of Barrow getting re-elected & increasing a prospective republican's chances of GETTING elected.
Dems have complained about being shutout of the process, while some republicans like State Senator Tommie Williams keeps referring to 2001 when Democrats ran the show & kept republicans out as well. Its like republicans such as Tommie Williams are saying, "Now its payback for what you tried to do to us (GOP) 10 years ago".
And lastly, Georgia Republicans are considering instead of going through the DOJ to get approvals of the maps, they might instead go to a court in tryin to get the maps approved because many from what I've heard say the Obama DOJ are very Partisan. You didn't think the Bush DOJ was partisan when they approved a mid-decade 2005 redistricting after the GOP got full control of the State Legislature in which they tried to oust Jim Marshall & John Barrow back in the 2006 elections?
The straight-to-court strategy has another possible drawback: It takes more time & ITS VERY EXPENSIVE. They could do like Louisiana & Virginia & take their maps to both the DOJ & the court for approval. In any event, don't be surprised if the Democrats present legal obstacles to a republican plan that they view as not constitutional or diluting minority or democratic strength in any area of the state.
And while redrawing a legislative district, don't split a county in two, three districts
And while redrawing a legislative district, don't dilute minority voting strength in a particular area to ensure the election of certain candidates.
And while the VRA protects Majority-Minority Districts, please do not create anymore of these type of districts. Where would they be located. Democrats,(Black Democrats) in general, the more you push for these type of districts, the more you are ensuring the democratic party of a permanent minority status over the next 10-15 years. So no more deal making with republicans over "GIVE US MORE MAJORITY-MINORITY DISTRICTS & IN RETURN, WE'LL SUPPORT ANY MAP YOU PUT FORWARD".
And plus this only solidify the notion that if you're black, you belong in the Democratic Party & if you're white, you belong in the Republican Party.
A BLACK & BROWN GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY, SPRINKLED WITH WHITE LIBERALS CANNOT WIN IN GEORGIA! ESPECIALLY STATEWIDE!!
No more Racially Gerrymandered Districts (just as they want to do with the 2nd by moving predominently Black, Inner city of Macon into Sanford Bishop's 2nd Congressional District, while leaving the unincorporated areas in the 8th District, held by first term Congressman Austin Scott.
Keep an eye on Gerrymandering over in the 12th Congressional District held by John Barrow, a conservative democrat. Despite Barrow only needing around 660+ more voters to meet the 692,000+ needed, the Georgia Republicans will "likely" alter the district significantly to lessen the chances of Barrow getting re-elected & increasing a prospective republican's chances of GETTING elected.
Dems have complained about being shutout of the process, while some republicans like State Senator Tommie Williams keeps referring to 2001 when Democrats ran the show & kept republicans out as well. Its like republicans such as Tommie Williams are saying, "Now its payback for what you tried to do to us (GOP) 10 years ago".
And lastly, Georgia Republicans are considering instead of going through the DOJ to get approvals of the maps, they might instead go to a court in tryin to get the maps approved because many from what I've heard say the Obama DOJ are very Partisan. You didn't think the Bush DOJ was partisan when they approved a mid-decade 2005 redistricting after the GOP got full control of the State Legislature in which they tried to oust Jim Marshall & John Barrow back in the 2006 elections?
The straight-to-court strategy has another possible drawback: It takes more time & ITS VERY EXPENSIVE. They could do like Louisiana & Virginia & take their maps to both the DOJ & the court for approval. In any event, don't be surprised if the Democrats present legal obstacles to a republican plan that they view as not constitutional or diluting minority or democratic strength in any area of the state.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
In the Game of Redistricting, Georgia Republicans Hold all the Cards
Redistricting Gumbo, Georgia Style: I like mine with a 1/2 cup of fact, a 1 whole cup of rumor, and I would add a 2/3 cup full of “what ifs, but I'll leave that out for now.
The partisan struggle over the use of statistically adjusted data from the U.S. Census to avoid "undercounts" was just a warmup for the real game: the redistricting of hundreds of congressional & thousands of legislative districts across the country. Once the census data was provided to the state of Georgia, legislative districts must be redrawn to ensure they are equal in population. With few public interest checks on their near-Godlike power in drawing state legislative and congressional districts, incumbents use increasingly sophisticated computer software and demographic data to literally choose the voters before the voters have a chance to choose them.
Let me take that back, there have been plenty of public interest in this process. The first three held by the joint house & senate reapportionment committees in Athens, Augusta & Savannah were very passionate & lively. So there have been interest in this shady game called redistricting by Georgians.
Moreover, the political party with full control of the process in the state: Georgia Republicans can seek to cement their power. By using techniques like "packing," whereby lines are drawn to concentrate many supporters of political opponents into a few districts, and "cracking," where opponents' supporters are split among several districts, they can dramatically heighten their chances for the next decade.
With so much at stake, Ga Democrats and Ga Republicans, (especially democrats) are preparing to claw like cats and dogs, possibly in the courts. There maybe hearings, more lawsuits, more investigations. Sound familiar? In redistricting, anything can happen.
But who gets ripped off by this process? The voters, of course. As a result of the redistricting process, most voters become locked down into noncompetitive one-party districts where their only real choice at election time is to ratify the incumbent or heir apparent of the party controlling that district.
Redistricting, or shall we say the "incumbent protection process" is the leading cause of uninspiring, choice-less elections. If you are a Democrat in a solidly Republican district, or a Republican in a solidly Democratic district, or a supporter of a minor party, you don't have a chance of electing your candidate. Demography is destiny, it turns out.
In a vastly conservative state like Georgia and given the rise of the Republican Party during the Perdue years, having a possible redistricting plan so liberally drawn so as to protect incumbent republican & democratic legislators is an affront to every citizen in Georgia, whether Democrat or Republican, since the primary goal of redistricting is to ensure the ideal of one man, one vote. Party aside, redistricting is about giving citizens a voice and ensuring access to government; it’s about the people in these districts who expect and deserve a like minded representative in the legislature or congress
The recipe for redistricting under a true two party system can be like making gumbo (of course, politics in Georgia has often been likened to the same Southern concoction). The public only gets so much of the facts, a whole lot of rumors, sprinkled with alot of what ifs, but you have to admit that would make one heck of a redistricting pot of gumbo.
I've heard rumors of the possible elimination of either Richmond or Chatham County from John Barrow's 12th Congressional District, to the removal of Bibb County from Austin Scott's 8th Congressional District to improve his chances of re-election in 2012, to the new 14th Congressional District being located around the north Atlanta area to NW Georgia, with Hall County being the population center
The removal of Bibb from the 8th to the 2nd doesn't make any sense. The second is already around 50% African-American, so why pack the 2nd with all these democratic.....Black voters?
This is called Gerrymandering!
Bibb is a central Georgia county & should be located in a central Georgia district, not a SW Georgia or even a east central Georgia district like the 12th.
Gerrymandering is a conspicuous, irregular manipulating of electoral district boundaries to advantage one political party or candidate which is a distasteful, if not downright corrupt, practice.
Through gerrymandering, incumbent politicians seek to choose their voters rather than vice versa, packing their legislative or congressional districts with enough like-minded constituents to make re-election almost effortless. So do you get the picture, if Bibb is moved into the Sanford Bishop's 2nd District, away from Austin Scott's 8th District, that helps Scott & solidify Bishop's district as a Majority-Minority District. Its more of a help to Scott that it is to Bishop
The same goes for Barrow over in the 12th. Decrease the democratic strength in the 12th to make it more favorable for a GOP candidate to win, if not in '12, then in '14. Chatham & Richmond are two democratic strongholds & if you add in the Black Belt Counties located in the northern end of the district, that makes it a democratic lean seat. Eliminate one of the big counties, then it goes from lean democratic to tossup.
Redistricting is a dirty game & someone is going to get left out & someone is going to get screwed in the process. Oh and let's not forget about the special interest groups who may have their hands in the process. Boy, this is going to be interesting!
The partisan struggle over the use of statistically adjusted data from the U.S. Census to avoid "undercounts" was just a warmup for the real game: the redistricting of hundreds of congressional & thousands of legislative districts across the country. Once the census data was provided to the state of Georgia, legislative districts must be redrawn to ensure they are equal in population. With few public interest checks on their near-Godlike power in drawing state legislative and congressional districts, incumbents use increasingly sophisticated computer software and demographic data to literally choose the voters before the voters have a chance to choose them.
Let me take that back, there have been plenty of public interest in this process. The first three held by the joint house & senate reapportionment committees in Athens, Augusta & Savannah were very passionate & lively. So there have been interest in this shady game called redistricting by Georgians.
Moreover, the political party with full control of the process in the state: Georgia Republicans can seek to cement their power. By using techniques like "packing," whereby lines are drawn to concentrate many supporters of political opponents into a few districts, and "cracking," where opponents' supporters are split among several districts, they can dramatically heighten their chances for the next decade.
With so much at stake, Ga Democrats and Ga Republicans, (especially democrats) are preparing to claw like cats and dogs, possibly in the courts. There maybe hearings, more lawsuits, more investigations. Sound familiar? In redistricting, anything can happen.
But who gets ripped off by this process? The voters, of course. As a result of the redistricting process, most voters become locked down into noncompetitive one-party districts where their only real choice at election time is to ratify the incumbent or heir apparent of the party controlling that district.
Redistricting, or shall we say the "incumbent protection process" is the leading cause of uninspiring, choice-less elections. If you are a Democrat in a solidly Republican district, or a Republican in a solidly Democratic district, or a supporter of a minor party, you don't have a chance of electing your candidate. Demography is destiny, it turns out.
In a vastly conservative state like Georgia and given the rise of the Republican Party during the Perdue years, having a possible redistricting plan so liberally drawn so as to protect incumbent republican & democratic legislators is an affront to every citizen in Georgia, whether Democrat or Republican, since the primary goal of redistricting is to ensure the ideal of one man, one vote. Party aside, redistricting is about giving citizens a voice and ensuring access to government; it’s about the people in these districts who expect and deserve a like minded representative in the legislature or congress
The recipe for redistricting under a true two party system can be like making gumbo (of course, politics in Georgia has often been likened to the same Southern concoction). The public only gets so much of the facts, a whole lot of rumors, sprinkled with alot of what ifs, but you have to admit that would make one heck of a redistricting pot of gumbo.
I've heard rumors of the possible elimination of either Richmond or Chatham County from John Barrow's 12th Congressional District, to the removal of Bibb County from Austin Scott's 8th Congressional District to improve his chances of re-election in 2012, to the new 14th Congressional District being located around the north Atlanta area to NW Georgia, with Hall County being the population center
The removal of Bibb from the 8th to the 2nd doesn't make any sense. The second is already around 50% African-American, so why pack the 2nd with all these democratic.....Black voters?
This is called Gerrymandering!
Bibb is a central Georgia county & should be located in a central Georgia district, not a SW Georgia or even a east central Georgia district like the 12th.
Gerrymandering is a conspicuous, irregular manipulating of electoral district boundaries to advantage one political party or candidate which is a distasteful, if not downright corrupt, practice.
Through gerrymandering, incumbent politicians seek to choose their voters rather than vice versa, packing their legislative or congressional districts with enough like-minded constituents to make re-election almost effortless. So do you get the picture, if Bibb is moved into the Sanford Bishop's 2nd District, away from Austin Scott's 8th District, that helps Scott & solidify Bishop's district as a Majority-Minority District. Its more of a help to Scott that it is to Bishop
The same goes for Barrow over in the 12th. Decrease the democratic strength in the 12th to make it more favorable for a GOP candidate to win, if not in '12, then in '14. Chatham & Richmond are two democratic strongholds & if you add in the Black Belt Counties located in the northern end of the district, that makes it a democratic lean seat. Eliminate one of the big counties, then it goes from lean democratic to tossup.
Redistricting is a dirty game & someone is going to get left out & someone is going to get screwed in the process. Oh and let's not forget about the special interest groups who may have their hands in the process. Boy, this is going to be interesting!
Friday, May 13, 2011
Sanford Bishop, John Barrow & Racial Gerrymandering
Racial Gerrymandering will hit Georgia at its worst if everything I'm hearing bears fruit.
Macon-Bibb County, a majority-minority city & county possibly going into the second, therefore making it easier for Austin Scott to maintain a hold on the 8th District. Potential Richmond Co moving into the 10th & Chatham in the 1st, therefore making it much, much more easier for a republican to take the 12th away from John Barrow
The biggest supporters of racial gerrymandering are Republicans. The answer is simple:
To the extent that the black Democrats are concentrated in congressional ( even legislative) districts, it is easier for Republican candidates to win more seats overall. The creation of a newly majority black district is likely to drain black voters from other districts (like the 8th, 12), one of them represented by a white Democrat , John Barrow. The more "lily-white" the districts become, the easier it is for Republicans to win them. In short, buy adopting such a redistricting strategy, Republicans give African Americans the opportunity to increase their descriptive representation but, quite possibly, at the expense of their substantive representation.
Racial gerrymandering has once again become a political tool. In this case, racial gerrymandering is being used to ensure political victory for Georgia Republicans. This is not to say that the problems in the electoral system today are on par with those of the past. Yet, these are problems that need to be address all the same.
Sanford Bishop by all means is not your typical "Liberal" democrat. He has always been a moderately conservative democrat since his election back in 1992. Yes he lost a substantial number of white voters due to his support of the Healthcare Legislation that rocked town halls all across the county during the summer of '09-10, but that doesn't mean that he can't win in a district where the black vote is in the minority. Let's not forget he won the 2nd when it was a majority white district, but this whole idea of moving Macon-Bibb County into the second to so-call "Strengthened" Bishop is absurd!
The district is already around 48-50% African American. He only needs 60,000 more voters to meet the 692,000+ needed for a congressional district. The answer is simple: Include all of Muscogee County, as well as Lowndes County into the district. And with Westmoreland (Lynn) district being over populated, the district will have to move northward to take away some of his votes, so include Meriwhether, Upson & Harris in the second.
But instead they want to make the district a solid "Black" District by throwing Macon to Bishop in order to protect Austin Scott, who by not opening a office in Macon sent a signal that he wanted no part of Macon in his 8th district.
Despite the fact that blacks are in general more liberal on economic issues, majority-minority districts are not necessary for blacks to win elections & Bishop have already proven that he can with or without a Majority African-American Constituency.
Gerrymandering is becoming an ineffective method of ensuring minority representation. When majority-minority districts are created first a pocket of blacks must be target.
Majority-Minority districts are harmful to blacks and democrats in general & should be done away with if for no other reason that the fact that majority-minority redistricting will no longer work.
Then there's the saga of John Barrow, one of the few remaining white conservative democrats left in the south that survived the massacre of 2010. The goal of the Georgia GOP is to make his district either more of a swing district or even republican-leaning. And to do that, something will have to be done about Richmond & Chatham Counties, which one or both maybe included in new districts north & south respectively.
Going back to what I mentioned earlier, the more black voters that can be drained from a district, the more it increases the republican's chances of competing or winning a congressional district & in this case that's what they are going to do with Barrow, who does well among white independents & conservatives in the 12th. The logic here is that the more whiter the 12th becomes, the more vulnerable John Barrow becomes. Other than Jack Kingston who's district they can move into the 12th, one thinks Barrow will be alright regardless how they redraw the lines to make it more favorable for a republican.
Majority-minority districts also capture black voters from surrounding congressional districts, leaving white congressmen with no incentive to craft messages appealing to African-American voters. This explains why Republicans receive so few votes from African-Americans
State Senator Robert Brown (D-Macon) expressed two weeks ago that he would like to see Bibb County go back into the second, as well include Warner Robins (including RAFB) which has a 40% Black Population. A study was done not too long ago that show safe black districts dampen electoral turnout so why bother to vote when the outcome will surely be the election of one black candidate or another?
The axiom behind this gerrymandering is that a "safe," predominantly black district could guarantee the election of Bishop, as well other potential black candidates to Congress whenever Bishop retires, because of protracted racism among whites that left Bishop in droves during the 2010 election. I'm going to say this right now, the next representative from the district will be a white democrat. You heard it here first!
Let me close this out: When African Americans are elected to the House from majority-black, heavily gerrymandered congressional districts in big cities in their districts they're unlikely to have the wide appeal necessary to win statewide office. Just look at Georganna Sinkfield who ran for Secretary of State in 2010. She represented a overwhelmingly black district & could not appeal to a more mainstream electorate.
So if I were Bishop' Ill say leave Bibb County in the 8th & if I were Barrow, don't sweat it. Your record speaks for itself!
Macon-Bibb County, a majority-minority city & county possibly going into the second, therefore making it easier for Austin Scott to maintain a hold on the 8th District. Potential Richmond Co moving into the 10th & Chatham in the 1st, therefore making it much, much more easier for a republican to take the 12th away from John Barrow
The biggest supporters of racial gerrymandering are Republicans. The answer is simple:
To the extent that the black Democrats are concentrated in congressional ( even legislative) districts, it is easier for Republican candidates to win more seats overall. The creation of a newly majority black district is likely to drain black voters from other districts (like the 8th, 12), one of them represented by a white Democrat , John Barrow. The more "lily-white" the districts become, the easier it is for Republicans to win them. In short, buy adopting such a redistricting strategy, Republicans give African Americans the opportunity to increase their descriptive representation but, quite possibly, at the expense of their substantive representation.
Racial gerrymandering has once again become a political tool. In this case, racial gerrymandering is being used to ensure political victory for Georgia Republicans. This is not to say that the problems in the electoral system today are on par with those of the past. Yet, these are problems that need to be address all the same.
Sanford Bishop by all means is not your typical "Liberal" democrat. He has always been a moderately conservative democrat since his election back in 1992. Yes he lost a substantial number of white voters due to his support of the Healthcare Legislation that rocked town halls all across the county during the summer of '09-10, but that doesn't mean that he can't win in a district where the black vote is in the minority. Let's not forget he won the 2nd when it was a majority white district, but this whole idea of moving Macon-Bibb County into the second to so-call "Strengthened" Bishop is absurd!
The district is already around 48-50% African American. He only needs 60,000 more voters to meet the 692,000+ needed for a congressional district. The answer is simple: Include all of Muscogee County, as well as Lowndes County into the district. And with Westmoreland (Lynn) district being over populated, the district will have to move northward to take away some of his votes, so include Meriwhether, Upson & Harris in the second.
But instead they want to make the district a solid "Black" District by throwing Macon to Bishop in order to protect Austin Scott, who by not opening a office in Macon sent a signal that he wanted no part of Macon in his 8th district.
Despite the fact that blacks are in general more liberal on economic issues, majority-minority districts are not necessary for blacks to win elections & Bishop have already proven that he can with or without a Majority African-American Constituency.
Gerrymandering is becoming an ineffective method of ensuring minority representation. When majority-minority districts are created first a pocket of blacks must be target.
Majority-Minority districts are harmful to blacks and democrats in general & should be done away with if for no other reason that the fact that majority-minority redistricting will no longer work.
Then there's the saga of John Barrow, one of the few remaining white conservative democrats left in the south that survived the massacre of 2010. The goal of the Georgia GOP is to make his district either more of a swing district or even republican-leaning. And to do that, something will have to be done about Richmond & Chatham Counties, which one or both maybe included in new districts north & south respectively.
Going back to what I mentioned earlier, the more black voters that can be drained from a district, the more it increases the republican's chances of competing or winning a congressional district & in this case that's what they are going to do with Barrow, who does well among white independents & conservatives in the 12th. The logic here is that the more whiter the 12th becomes, the more vulnerable John Barrow becomes. Other than Jack Kingston who's district they can move into the 12th, one thinks Barrow will be alright regardless how they redraw the lines to make it more favorable for a republican.
Majority-minority districts also capture black voters from surrounding congressional districts, leaving white congressmen with no incentive to craft messages appealing to African-American voters. This explains why Republicans receive so few votes from African-Americans
State Senator Robert Brown (D-Macon) expressed two weeks ago that he would like to see Bibb County go back into the second, as well include Warner Robins (including RAFB) which has a 40% Black Population. A study was done not too long ago that show safe black districts dampen electoral turnout so why bother to vote when the outcome will surely be the election of one black candidate or another?
The axiom behind this gerrymandering is that a "safe," predominantly black district could guarantee the election of Bishop, as well other potential black candidates to Congress whenever Bishop retires, because of protracted racism among whites that left Bishop in droves during the 2010 election. I'm going to say this right now, the next representative from the district will be a white democrat. You heard it here first!
Let me close this out: When African Americans are elected to the House from majority-black, heavily gerrymandered congressional districts in big cities in their districts they're unlikely to have the wide appeal necessary to win statewide office. Just look at Georganna Sinkfield who ran for Secretary of State in 2010. She represented a overwhelmingly black district & could not appeal to a more mainstream electorate.
So if I were Bishop' Ill say leave Bibb County in the 8th & if I were Barrow, don't sweat it. Your record speaks for itself!
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
What if..................?
Okay, here's a scenario: The GOP-controlled State Legislature decides to draw all of Chatham County into Jack Kingston's 1st Congressional District, thereby, forcing Incumbent Conservative Democrat John Barrow to decide: either run against Kingston or relocate to another city in the district & try to win re-election once again to the 12th.
Remember this was done back in 2005 when the GOP redrew the 12th, forcing Barrow to relocate to Savannah, instead of running against then congressman, the late Charlie Norwood (R-Evans).
Now remember, here in Georgia, you do not have to live in a district to run for a seat in congress, remember Saxby Chambliss, who then represented the old 3rd District from 94-01, but his home base was in the 2nd (Sanford Bishop's District)
So what if Barrow decides to run in the 1st instead of relocating & remaining in the 12th? This is something democrats here in Georgia, as well in D.C. need to think about. I know many of you are saying: "FAT CHANCE" Barrow runs in another district, but think about it for a minute: What in the world will dems do if that were to happen? Who will they turn to?
Two democrats come to mind: State Rep Mack Jackson (D-Sandersville) & former State Senator JB Powell (D-Blythe). But if Bibb County were to be included in the 12th, then I could see someone from Macon possibly running.
Im just throwing out different scenarios here, but its something to think about
Remember this was done back in 2005 when the GOP redrew the 12th, forcing Barrow to relocate to Savannah, instead of running against then congressman, the late Charlie Norwood (R-Evans).
Now remember, here in Georgia, you do not have to live in a district to run for a seat in congress, remember Saxby Chambliss, who then represented the old 3rd District from 94-01, but his home base was in the 2nd (Sanford Bishop's District)
So what if Barrow decides to run in the 1st instead of relocating & remaining in the 12th? This is something democrats here in Georgia, as well in D.C. need to think about. I know many of you are saying: "FAT CHANCE" Barrow runs in another district, but think about it for a minute: What in the world will dems do if that were to happen? Who will they turn to?
Two democrats come to mind: State Rep Mack Jackson (D-Sandersville) & former State Senator JB Powell (D-Blythe). But if Bibb County were to be included in the 12th, then I could see someone from Macon possibly running.
Im just throwing out different scenarios here, but its something to think about
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