Rural voters may sway race for governor

What I have been saying all along. The candidate most likely to be elected governor next year is the one who can carry rural Georgia.

Odds favor the Republican. No surprise. Georgia is a red state.

Barack Obama made it close. Excluding Jimmy Carter who carried Georgia twice, Obama got a higher percentage here (47 percent) than any other Democratic presidential candidate has since 1964.

It’s inconceivable that any other candidate could come close to repeating the Obama effect. A Democrat who can’t turn out a phenomenal percentage of the black vote in the general election probably shouldn’t plunk down the qualifying fee to run for one of the top two statewide offices on the ballot in 2010, governor and U.S. senator. And yet one who runs too far left to get it is dog food in the general election in November.

Latest of the Democrats to announce are Attorney General Thurbert Baker and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, a lawyer and newspaper editor.

Baker’s entry seriously complicates life for the three moderate whites who’ve announced or are being urged to announce, including Porter, former Adjutant General David Poythress and former Gov. Roy Barnes.

Blacks, who are likely to be energized by the prospect of following Obama’s success with the election of a black governor, are 30 percent of the registered voters and half of the Democratic primary base. In 2006, Baker got more votes than any other Democrat running statewide and more, even, than two Republicans who’ll be vying for governor, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Karen Handel. Only Gov. Sonny Perdue, School Superintendent Kathy Cox and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, another Republican gubernatorial candidate, got more votes.

Baker’s a moderate who’s generally well liked. Assuming he’s able to resist the pressure that’s always on Democrats to veer left, he could emerge from the primary as a strong contender in November. The Democratic base is probably 41-43 percent. Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor got 38 percent against Perdue in 2006. Without Obama’s coattails, Jim Martin got 43 percent in a runoff last December against U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Porter, Poythress and Barnes all have their strengths, too. Porter, as minority leader, has made the House Democratic caucus a more cohesive, focused group whose members are less likely to rush before TV cameras to blurt out rants. By the traditional gauge of candidate likability, the fishing standard, Porter will wear well. The “fishing standard” is “which of the people running would you actually like to take fishing?”

Barnes has the experience, the contacts and the ability to raise money, all important. Poythress has been adjutant general, secretary of state and commissioner of labor and was well-regarded in all.

Had Democrats been able to hold on to rural Georgia, they’d now be in control statewide. The 28-county metro area, which represented 57 percent of the vote last November, is trending Democratic. Obama won the region, 51-48, largely because he won Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton by almost 400,000 votes. Outside metro Atlanta, John McCain prevailed with 58 percent.

Any successful Democrat needs to be center-right in rural Georgia and capable of turning out a huge black vote in metro Atlanta. Liberal activists, including those in the General Assembly and in the pure, hard-core Democratic areas like DeKalb and Clayton, are trouble for their candidates. If they cut them some slack through the primary, their November chances improve considerably. Known liberals lose Georgia. Get them firmly on record as supporting the Obama agenda, for example, and they’re toast.

Republican gubernatorial candidates also need to be center-right in rural Georgia. It prefers Chamber of Commerce types who’ll not lunge sharply left or right. Sonny Perdue. Joe Frank Harris. George Busbee. Solid, dependable, predictable. No sudden moves. Gradualism. They carried Georgia for McCain, just as they put Perdue in the governor’s mansion in 2002.

While the bulk of the vote is in metro Atlanta and it is trending Democratic, it’s still pretty evenly split. It’s the rest of Georgia that picks winners.

What I have been saying forever if the Dems want to win Statewide in 2010.

From Bill Kinney of the Marietta Journal: If Democrat Roy Barnes of Marietta seeks political redemption next year in the race for governor, he had better find a way to win back votes he lost in rural Georgia in 2002 after his education reform package and state flag change caused many traditionally Democratic voters in rural counties to vote for Republican Sonny Perdue.

In 2002, Barnes ran slightly ahead of Perdue in metro Atlanta, then consisting of 20 counties (compared with 28 counties today) and overall ran about even with Perdue in the state's other metro areas, but lost badly in the state's rural areas.

Interestingly, Barnes's 2002 performance closely resembled Obama's showing in the Peach State last fall, with both Barnes and Obama losing their respective contests in Georgia by five percentage points, and both running about even with their GOP opponents in the state's metro areas while running poorly in rural areas such as the north Georgia mountains and southeast Georgia.

Though rural counties account for only a small proportion of the state's total voters, they serve as the "tiebreakers" if in an election the state's metro areas split about 50/50 between Dems and GOP candidates.

That's the argument democrats are going to have to realize. It's not enough to just get the votes in the urban areas & the cities. You need to get the rural vote because if you get a good number of rural votes, it'll become easier to win statewide. Relying on liberal voters is not enough. You need the conservative democrat vote, independents & moderate republicans to win. Had Jim Martin performed better in the rural areas of the state during the general election, he would be senator right now. That will be the key to Barnes if he does run agaain. Can he win back those rural votews that had been voting democrat for over 130+ years?

DuBose Porter won't have that problem because he hails from rural Georgia & knows what it takes to get those voters back into the democratic party. That's something Roy is going to have to consider if he runs again.

Georgia Democrats need to decide who should run for what office in 2010. No bitter primary fights.

I hope the Georgia Democrats take a lesson from Alabama Democrats Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks & Lt. Governor Jim Folsom decided that the both of them running for governor is not in the best interest for the democratic party & stead they talked about it & decided to run for different post, Folsom for governor & sparks for Lt. Governor. We already have Gen. David Poythress as a candidate & most likely will have DuBose Porter, Roy Barnes & possibly others like Thurbert Baker. These men need to sit down & talk it out like Folsom & Sparks did over in Alabama. There only need to be two candidates running for governor, one for Lt. Governor & the U.S. Senate.

I look at DuBose Porter & he has been waiting for this time to come, having built up a impressive resume, holding key committee positions & championing a key issue: Education that is a concern to Georgia voters. He may well be best postioned to win the governorship for the dems that Poythress even Barnes. Being from Rural Georgia, he has the advantage of getting those votes needed by the democrats to win statewide in 2010. He has deep rural roots, rural heritage & he knows best what is going on in Rural Georgia. If had to make the decision, I would have Porter running for Governor, Baker running for Lt. Governor & Roy Barnes running for the U.S. Senate.

Democrats don't need a contentious primary. Let the republicans have that, let them spend all of their money in the primary. We need to gather our forces together & take back this state that has been neglected by the radical republicans.

Who's the best candiate for democrats & Rural Georgia in 2010?

David Poythress a Macon native who is the only democrat to have announced so far to run for governor. Pros: He is lone-time Army Veteran serving over 40+ years serving our country. He also served as State Labor Commissioner, Secretary of State & ran for Gov. in 1998. He has appeal to military vets that makeup a huge voting bloc in the state, especially here in rural georgia & military families. Has a clean slate & can position himself to the right on many issues. Cons: He is relatively unknown Statewide, doesn't have a base of support yet & does he have staying. He got 5% of the vote in the '98 democratic primary.

DuBose Porter, a resident of Dublin is a potential candidate for governor as well. He is a strong advocate for public education. He is currently the minority leader in the General Assembly & is well positioned to run for governor if he so chooses. Pros: A rural democrat, he knows how to appeal to those pro-gun conservative democrats in rural georgia, he has strong support from Teacher's Unions in the state, a strong democratic ally here in georgia, can raise money necessary to mount a challenge for governor, & can relate farmers. His is very visible in middle georgia because of the local T.V. station near Laurens County (WMAZ-Macon) & he owns the Dublin-Courier. Cons: Not well known in the Metro Atlanta area where I admit a dem need to win in order to win the nomination. Can his moderate to consevative views appeal to voters in Dekalb, Fulton, Clayton Counties?

Roy Barnes, a Cobb County Democrat who is the big fish for the democrats. He has the profile, name recognition & money to run again in 2010. He lost in an upset to Sonny Perdue in 2002 because of the opposition to flaggers, educators & in due part to the anger the nation was in after the 9/11 attacks in whcich dems were deem unpatriotic. Pros: He can raise the money, probably as much as $5 to $10 million dollars for the governor's race, knows how to run a statewide race, name i.d., has a built in base of support across Georgia & is a populist & most surely will be the favorite for the democrats. Cons: Can he win the flaggers who was upset over the removal of the confederate flag? Will the voters re-elect someone who lost in 2002 to a fringe republican candidate, & does he REALLY want to run again?

Thurbert Baker, a resident of Stone Mountain who is the State's Attorney General. He trounced his republican opponent who had the backing of the governor, house speaker garnering 58% of the vote, the most of any democrat during the 2006 elections. Baker is a consevative democrat who as Zell Miller's floor leader passed the strict 2 strikes you're out law. As a African-American he would have the advantage with the crucial voting block that is esential to demcorats winning the nomination. Plus with his appeal to conservative white male voters & strong support from the law-enforcement community, he would be in my opinion the toughest opponent for the republicans for governor. Pros: Has crossover appeal statewide, a conservative he is the mainstream of most Georgians on guns, abortion, taxes, could galvanize the african-american voters in a non-election year & could garner the endorsement of Zell Miller who baker has a close relationship with. Cons: Does he want to leave his safe seat to jump into the spotlight? If he runs & become governor he will be on the short list of presidential candiates in 2016.

Jim Marshall, a resident of Macon, who is the congressman of the 8th district. Marshall is a old school democrat in the mold of Sam Nunn & Zell Miller. Marshall, a pro-gun, low-tax, fiscal conservative along with Thurbert Baker would be the strongest democrat to run against the republicans. He knows the republican playbook as better that any democrat n the state. His credentials as Vietnam War Vet ( inducted into Army Ranger Hall of Fame in 2006 ), former mayor, college professor & working class roots make him a dream candidate for state democrats. Pros: Conservative, probably would have the endorsenents of Zell Miller & Sam Nunn, gets alot of conservative republican votes in his district, a staunch supporter of the military & veterans & have executive experience being a former mayor. Cons: Will have trouble in the primary in the liberal counties of DeKalb. Fulton, Clayton. If he were to run & win the dem primary & the general election, he will be a potential candidate for president in 2016 when he will be 68 years old.

The son and grandson of army generals, Jim spent his formative years moving from one army post to another. After graduating from high school in 1966 in Mobile, Alabama, Jim attended Princeton University and was a University Scholar. Compelled by a sense of duty and fairness, Jim left Princeton in 1968 to enlist in the Army and volunteer for infantry combat in Vietnam, where he served as an Airborne-Ranger reconnaissance platoon sergeant, and was wounded and decorated "for heroism in ground combat." He received numerous military awards, including two Bronze Stars and the Purple Heart. Jim is also a member of the U.S. Army Ranger Hall of Fame.