Georgia Dems, Carter, Nunn, Barrow and the Future

Despite all of the hope and enthusiasm from Georgia Democrats, Tuesday night was a reminder that more work needs to be done in order to be competitive again here in the Peach State.

The biggest problem facing Democrats here in Georgia is their inability to attract white voters and having a message that can appeal to moderates and conservative democrats....plain & simple! Forget Independent Voters because there are no such thing as a TRUE independent voter....most lean either to the democrats or republicans.

Nunn and Carter got under 25% of the white vote, which is not enough to be competitive statewide int he near future. On the bright side, they got close to 30% of the black vote, so despite all the talk about black voters not turning out, they did this year despite voter turnout being at a record low across the country during Tuesday's election.

For all the talk about demographic changes and registering more minority voters they need to do a better job at attracting those who are already registered to vote, black and white. Too much they rely on urban and suburban areas of Atlanta, Lilburn, Albany for their votes and very little on rural, mid-sized areas of Fitzgerald, Swainsboro, Douglas, thus leaving huge swaths of the state to the GOP.

Look at the state legislature, democrats have done a poor job at candidate recruitment on the house and senate side and that starts with the leadership in both chambers. That needs to change and change soon and that starts with electing new leadership who knows that leaving 80% of the republican legislature unchallenged is not good for the state, nor the party. Now is the time for Rep. Scott Holcomb, yes I'm talking to you, to run for minority leader and to locate potential democratic candidates to add to a democratic house caucus that's (with the exception of a dozen legislators) made up of 'Dead Weight" or "Seat Warmers".

Michelle Nunn ran a good race, but she ran the type of race that made National Democrats proud, but on the flip side, this is still the south and this is still Georgia and she didn't put enough emphasis on Georgia and too much on National Issues. Even Rep. Jack Kingston said she didn't exert enough independence from the National Democrats and looking back on it, he's right! That Ferguson mailer did have a negative impact on both Nunn and Carter thus their white support fell below 25%.

DuBose Porter should run for the 12th Congressional District in '16, if he decides to bypass a full four year term as head of the Georgia Democratic Party. Porter came in under tough circumstances to rebuild the state party that hit rock bottom and now is a viable and fully functioning party. And there's always 2018 in which Porter will be in his 60s.

I for one do not see Nunn running for political office again. That's the feeling I get, but who knows.

Jason Carter also ran a good race, but you have to give the Deal Campaign credit for highlighting his experience, which I think hurt Carter towards the end. Why Carter didn't run on expanding medicaid is a question only he can answer. That was a winning issue, but he made very little mention of it. Everyone assumes he will the front runner for governor in 2018, but you better look out for Kasim Reed and possibly John Barrow.

And speaking of Barrow who I call the smartest politician in the entire state, I didn't expect to see him go down to Rick Allen who ran on absolutely nothing, except tying Barrow to Obama, just like Austin Scott who also ran on nothing when he defeated Jim Marshall in 2010 by tying him to Nancy Pelosi.

Barrow is the wildcard here because he has options. He gets to sit back and re-charge his batteries for another "likely" run for office...either for the U.S. Senate in 2016 or for a statewide office in 2018. And it's a longshot, but Barrow could be on a list of possible VP contenders for Hillary Clinton.

Another is Kasim Reed. You know and I know he's going to begin to lay the groundwork for a potential 2018 race. And look over to Columbus, Ga where Teresa Tomlinson (D) will be someone who may look to move up the political ladder if she has a successful second term as mayor of Columbus.

"Biased" - Michelle Nunn For U.S. Senate

With the Georgia Bulldogs on a bye week and no new news regarding the Todd Gurley situation (who I say will play against Florida next Saturday), the Nunn for Senate Campaign unveiled a new television ad, featuring former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA), father of candidate Michelle Nunn. Take a look, it's a good ad. With a series of polls showing Nunn now leading David Perdue, the Nunn campaign has the wind at their backs now heading towards November 5.

Chris Irvin Goes after Gary Black in New Radio Ad

​(D) Chris Irvin who's challenging (R) Gary Black for Agriculture Commissioner is up with a radio spot slamming Black over Georgia's Food Safety and the Skinny Dipping episode that occurred at Lake Blackshear last year. Listen to the ad below:

 Chris Irvin-Agriculture Commissioner-GA 'Safe Food 2'-(2014-10-17)-mix-REV1.mp3

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Georgia Dems Need To Get To Work Mobilizing the Youth, Black Vote...During Homecoming Weekend!

As we near election day, candidates for statewide office from Jason Carter to Greg Hecht to Robin Shipp need to push the pedal to the metal.

The major weakness right now among democrats is not with white voters, but with their most loyal base....Black Voters. And without them, democrats cannot and will not be successful at the polls

As we all know, black voters drop off tremendously during the midterm elections and it's something that democrats for years have never able to figure out.

Albany State Homecoming, 2013

So what do they need to do to to mobilize black voters, some are also called "Obamacrats" who only support Pres. Obama and nothing else? There's no dominant issue that is resonating with them, so it will very difficult to move this bloc of voters ahead of early voting and on the first Tuesday in November.

What the candidates need, or ought to do is do a barnstorm of the state and visit all the colleges and universities to rally young, undecided voters and also those who voted for President Obama back in 2012. Assemble a entourage of Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, Congressman John Lewis, Congressman Sanford Bishop, former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, former candidate for State School Superintendent Alisha Morgan. And as a bonus bring the big guns such as former President Bill Clinton or likely 2016 presidential contender Hillary Clinton.

Valdosta State Homecoming, 2013

Fort Valley State University Homecoming is Oct. 25, Albany State University Homecoming is also Oct 25, Clark-Atlanta is Nov.1, Morehouse Homecoming is Oct. 18, Paine Collge is also Oct. 18, Columbus State University is Oct. 25, Mercer University is Nov.2, Valdosta State is Oct 25.

As you can see, multiple colleges will be having their homecoming on Oct 25, which is on a saturday. That's the perfect opportunity for democrats like Michelle Nunn, Valerie Wilson, Jason Carter, Chris Irvin, Robin Shipp to appeal to college students, Obamacrats, alums and people from surrounding areas who will make the trip to the homecoming festivities.

Despite the barrage of attack ads from outside groups toward Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn, both have pretty much withstood the storm of negative attack ads and are now well positioned to do well on election day. Every vote counts!

2014: Georgia Democrats and How Can They Can Rile Up the Black Vote

As I sit here, I'm utterly amazed by democrats inability to excite Black Voters ahead of the midterm elections. The Traditional way of going after the black vote is still kinda effective, but democrats need to go outside the box to motivate a group of people that are difficult to read when it comes to voting. You would think issues from the minimum wage to equal pay to education would move black voters to the polls, but I'm here to tell you, unfortunately those issues don't motivate some, if not most black voters to go vote.

Instead issues from the Ferguson shooting to the Stand Your Ground Law to Trayvon Martin to the perceived unfair treatment by the justice system towards blacks in general, those are the type of issues that really get black voters riled up....or angry and motivate them to go to the polls. I was at a church over in Greenville, Georgia yesterday and the pastor during his sermon started to talk about the elections and how black

s need to get up and vote to prevent more laws being created like the Stand Your Ground Law and to fight back against "attempted" voter suppression (as the pastor say) by the GOP here in Georgia, he had to be talking about SOS Brian Kemp battle with a voting registration organization)

All the rage leading up to November among Democrats and Politicos is how Democrats are going to boost Black Voter turnout in time fir not only early voting, but on election day. Well, if it were me, I'd send mailers or run radio ads on predominantly black radio station with spots like this:

"It’s Fall 2014 but let me tell you about last Spring.  When they thought no one was listening, Republican leaders plotted impeaching President Obama or at least humiliating him for his last two years in office because the president and Democrats put working families and jobs before corporations and fat cats.  We can’t let them control Congress.  

The despicable Republicans were even discussing forcing kids who receive free lunch to clean the schools for their meals.  These are the people who created the “Stand Your Ground” laws and fight increasing the minimum wage.  We stop them by voting and making sure that everyone we know votes early—that’s the best protest. Vote for (candidate) in November"

And since this is football season, Friday Night Football in small town Georgia is a religion....one radio spot or television ad geared towards rural white moderates/blacks would go something like this:

"Speaker One: “Oh yea, smell the popcorn in the crisp air….it’s Friday night high school football in Georgia.”

 

Speaker Two; “Yes sir, the countless hours we have spent in this stadium…as students and now our kids are the ball players, cheerleaders and band members.  Where did the years go?”

Speaker One: “If you think about it, people can freeze in the stands for hours at a game but the same people won’t take 20 minutes to go early vote.  It’s a shame.”  

Narrator: “We all have priorities but isn’t voting as important as football, reality T.V., and cell phone games.  Why not use your mobile device to promote voting among your friends.  Let’s fight those who want to impeach President Obama for trying to provide healthcare for everyone.  The same people who went after President Clinton for silly reasons but said nothing about impeachment when we went to war for false reasons under another president. 

Congress, the state legislature and the governor’s mansions should be focused on education, training and get jobs back from overseas.  But, they aren’t thinking about regular folks when they make laws like Stand Your Ground and allow guns in schools, churches and nightclubs.   We should vote out of office people who basically declare open season on people who don’t look like you….because you “felt” threaten.  The best form of protest is voting what change what was wrong in the first place.

Voting is also our way of monitoring those who decide when, where and how long our sons, daughters, brothers, cousins and friends go to war.  We appreciate the political side eager to dialog with the other side and ready to have public policy decisions reflect the views of every Americans—not just their fancy friends.  As they say, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.  Voting ensures our seat at the table and provides the opportunity to squeak.   

High school football games are exciting but voting often takes less time than halftime.  We should support the kids on Friday nights but more importantly we should support their safe development into productive citizens.  Productive citizens vote and encourage those around them to do the same. On November 4 make your voices heard and vote for candidate or candidates in November".

"Kannapolis" - Michelle Nunn for U.S. Senate

More On the Miller Endorsement of Michelle Nunn

Political endorsements for a candidate are like getting a letter of recommendation for a job interview. 

I wrote a blog post a while back stating Michelle Nunn should pay a visit to the North Georgia Mountains and I wasn't talking about for a vacation. I was talking about securing an endorsement from probably the most popular politician in the history of the state Zell Miller. And not to my surprise he came out and endorse her candidacy for the U.S. Senate.

(D) Michelle Nunn with former Governor (D) Zell Miller

It’s a familiar refrain among politicos: Endorsements often don’t matter. On a national level, the endorsements that garner the biggest headlines are often the awkward ones—nods from celebrities or endorsements from former opponents. It’s not that they’re completely meaningless, but it just  endorsements are often much harder for campaigns to parlay into real help on the campaign trail. But on the state and local level, endorsements can pay big dividends.

On Thursday, Former Georgia Governor and Senator Zell Miller came out and threw his support behind  Michelle Nunn (D) a non-profit executive who headed the Points of Light Organization, founded by former President George H.W. Bush and who is a underdog against David Perdue, a former corporate CEO.

Much was made about how little Miller's endorsement of Nunn will matter from both Republicans and liberal Democrats who are still upset by Miller's appearance at the 2004 RNC and his unabashed conservative views that are out of line with today's Democrats. Had Miller come out and endorsed David Perdue, you better believe republicans would be jumping for joy and be singing the praises of the former marine.

Now endorsements in fact really doesn't matter... however some endorsements can end up having a larger impact than others. The trouble is, like other factors, it’s hard to know ahead of time which ones will have the biggest impact. It just depends on who’s doing the endorsing and how much credibility the person has and how vigorous the endorsement is on the other hand it can be weakened when the endorser is not universally popular in the party or when a voter’s opinion is split, but this endorsement from Miller will have a positive impact for Nunn going forward towards November. How will it help Nunn? Well it help her in courting rural swing voters, disaffected Conservative Democrats, Seniors, groups that still hold the former governor in high regard and even with moderate Republicans. However, it may not have that much of a impact in and around Metro Atlanta, but believe me, in small towns across Georgia and among misinformed voters and voters who don't follow politics, it will carry some weight. The question I have is will the former governor, who's been battling health-related issues make a few campaign appearances on behalf of Michelle Nunn? That remains to be seen.

But the dirty work and the negative ad campaign from outside GOP groups will continue against Nunn, and likely gain ferocity as we near the fall season and the best thing Nunn can do at this point to improve her chances is to work on her statewide grassroots ground game.

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Zell Miller Endorsement of Michelle Nunn for U.S. Senate: "Bridge"

Small Talk With Small Town Georgia Voters

Courting country folk has been no easy task for Democratic candidates going back to 2006, let alone those from the Democratic enclaves of Metro Atlanta. Most of these rural areas were once democratic  are now Republican or very republican because democrats have failed to compete in these areas, and what Democrats need to do is try to minimize the damage or score a few upsets in some of these places.

As I traveled to the Democratic Party State Convention over in Dublin yesterday, I made stops in Jeffersonville, Vidalia and Montrose just to ask rural resident their thoughts on the upcoming elections.

I asked Sam Garrett, a 59-year-old self-employed lumber dealer about who he may support in the upcoming governor's race between Nathan Deal and Jason Carter, he says "issues such as the lack of adequate jobs, access to rural health care and refusal to expand medicaid will not win Deal many friends in my neck of the woods, so Jason Carter is getting a serious look from folks around here because of his support of medicaid expansion.

Next I approached Deb Jackson a 49-year-old woman from Montrose about the Carter-Deal race as she was pumping gas at a station in Twiggs County, she stated "Carter (Jason) speaks to people around here as she recited her list of important issues, including gun ownership which she says she is a proud gun owner and brought up Carter's A rating from the NRA she saw on the Internet. Carter needs to increase his presence in middle Georgia as the General Elections nears in November she goes on to say and as for the Nunn-Perdue Senate race, she says she haven't made up her mind as of yet on that race, but she likes the prospect of having a woman in the Senate.

But it wasn't totally about the top two races on the ballot this year, there was interest in who was running for School Superintendent and Agriculture Commissioner as well, so that tells me that voters are starting to become more engage in this years elections as the campaign season starts to heat up.

Campaigning is Different in Rural Georgia

He didn’t shake my hand, she didn't ask for my vote, so I’m not going to vote for him or I'm not going to vote for her. For a long time, I've often-heard this remark by voters in various rural areas of Georgia. That's what I hear now when the name of Michelle Nunn or any other candidate comes up. Political campaigns and races in rural counties have often been decided by just such seemingly whimsical reasoning.

Roy Barnes appearance in rural Berrien County in 2010 during his run for governor

However, if you’ve spent any time in rural areas, then you have some grasp of how small town people and farm folks look at elections and politicians. On the surface, that remark may seem foolish but rural residents reasoning runs much deeper and more serious than that statement may seem. Longtime residents of metropolitan cities here in the state probably think that’s a silly reason for voting or not voting for a candidate. But, having spent the majority of my life in a small town I understand the reasoning. It goes to character.

Yes, it says something about the candidate’s character but it also raises the question of the depth of the candidate’s character. While, metro residents may seem to be more attuned to issues, small town and rural folks put a lot of stock in a candidate who has the gumption and, yes, strength of character, to look a man in the eye, shake his hand and ask for his vote. I know how important this is, I seen it first hand two years ago while working on a campaign for State House. Numbers, of course, play a major role in how a candidate and his campaign people approach the race. If the area to be represented is sizable in both population and/or geographic area, much of the candidate’s appeal will be directed through appearances at events catering to candidates and through advertising and mass media messages to the electorate.

But, a candidate who dismisses the press-the-flesh/knock on- doors approach as too time-consuming, colloquial and lacking depth is usually making a major mistake. And, to think that a voter who wants to look you in the eye probably doesn’t know what the issues are, is usually a misjudgement by a candidate and his campaign workers. A voter who wants a candidate to shake his hand and look him in the eye, can probably tell from the candidate’s reaction if the politician is committed plus confident in his depth of knowledge of the job and the issues. (Again I go back to 2012 when I worked for Thomas Coogle campaign for State House 139...that kind of outreach works!)

Rural and small town folks have always done a lot of handshake business so they generally have a good feel for a person’s sincerity and honesty. Of course, there is a difference between a politician and someone you see and do business with regularly. Naturally, if the pol is local, he/ she understands that they have to face most voters frequently. Maybe they see them shopping every week or go to the same church or hold civic club membership in common.

That kind of exposure will go a long way toward ensuring a candidate’s honesty. He or she knows they have to look the same people in the eye daily or weekly and there are less places to run and hide.

For statewide candidates, especially democratic candidates, this is a MUST! They may not go door to door, but attending those summer festivals across Georgia and during the fall, attending friday night football games offer a valuable opportunity for them to connect with voters. Already I've seen candidates such as Liz Johnson (Insurance Commissioner) visit Coffee County, Chris Irvin (Agriculture Commissioner) visit several rural counties such as Early, Peach, and Crisp Co for example and Robin Shipp (Labor Commissioner) trek to Sumter and several other rural counties since announcing her candidacy.

The Top Two Candidates, Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn need to do more of this as we now are into August, especially Michelle Nunn who really needs to raise her profile in rural Georgia ASAP!

Forget About Being Nice: Democrats Need To Tap The Anger Vein In Voters

Midterms are all about anger....and in some instances rage.  Polls never really show the exact extent of this.  There’s no identifiable or authoritative Anger Poll – a "how angry are you" poll. Personally, I’d like to see an anger poll.  Not another level of dissatisfaction with Congress poll or how much voters disapproves of President Obama poll.  And even though it’s something like news for the horse race gamblers, some of us get unbelievable headaches from survey after survey measuring how much half the public still detests the Affordable Care Act or "Obamacare" a it called.

But, an anger poll could go beyond the political divisions and reveal the root cause of electoral anxieties we see in polls and hear on the street.  The deciding factor in this upcoming midterm elections isn’t really about which party base is the most mobilized, but it’s more about how angry or anxious certain blocks of voters are.

This is problematic for both Democratic and Republican parties.  However, at this stage, it’s much more problematic for Democrats as the left has proven itself incapable of using voter anger as a valuable resource simply because they are too nice.  While progressives are writing diatribes and pity party scripts, conservatives are coming up with creative twists on anger and that strategy works everytime. Defensively, Democrats are earnestly rolling out a wave of populist themes designed to win the hearts and minds of lost base voters. From the minimum wage to equal pay, the issues seem solid on paper and in polling headlines bearing upbeat assessments of a Democratic Party comeback in this year’s highly critical midterm election.

Issues such as the minimum wage increase appeal to non-white voters at a much higher rate. But for any democrat to do well this november and win, he or she will have to go after the white vote. For all the talk about democrats needing to turnout their base, which will not be on the level of that of 2008 or 2012, white voters..those who are middle of the road, bluecollar will be the deciding bloc for democrats this year. If the Democratic party, is to thrive for instance like here in Georgia, it cannot simply accommodate itself to Republicans. The party needs to seize control of the battle for new ideas, reinvigorate its grassroots base, and develop new mechanisms for communicating its ideas to the public.

Why Michelle Nunn should take a trip to the North Georgia Mountians & Soon.

Michelle Nunn is officially the Democratic nominee. Now the real work begins.....but she should take this time before the GOP runoff is held in July to take a....oh well, a quick trip to the North Georgia Mountians.

Nunn campaigns with supports in Randolph County

He rarely make appearances nowadays due to health reasons, but former Democratic Governor & Senator Zell Miller of Towns County, like former Senator Sam Nunn is still highly thought of throughout much of Georgia, especially in the rural areas from his time as Governor in which he created the Hope Scholarship among other things.

Now in his 80s, the fiery ex-governor name is still a valuable get for any politician looking to run for office here in Georgia. He has supported republicans like Doug Collins, now congressman for the 9th CD, he chaired the failed presidential campaign of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and he even endorsed Geore W. Bush in the 2004 presidential race. The last democrat he endorsed was Jack Lance in 2010 when Lance ran for HD 8 against Stephen Allison in which Lance fell short of victory.

Former Gov & Senator Zell Miller

Having said that, Michelle Nunn should take a trip to the North Georgia Mountains and pay Zell Miller a house call in hopes of securing a endorsement from the 82 year old former marine and Lt. Governor. Now you always hear that endorsements are not that effective, which is true, but certain endorsements carry weight. Go back to 2008 when the late Ted Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama for president of the United States, which was seen as key in Obama locking up the Democratic Nomination. An endorsement from Miller, even in today's political world still carries weight statewide and would be major for Michelle Nunn or any other democratic candidate running this year.

What would a potential endorsement from Miller mean to Nunn? It would help her tremendously with independents, moderates, seniors and disaffected democrats and it would signal to those voters that they can trust Nunn to represent Georgia and its interest in the U.S. Senate and that she's not cut from the same cloth as National Democrats.

But will Nunn even seek Miller's support given how the left wing of the Democratic Party feel about him? If I was her in her shoes I would because the Democratic Base will not come at the levels it did in 2012 or 2008, thus she'll need to make up ground in other areas and as I mentioned before, the base of the democratic party, which are made up of Obamacrats aren't the most reliable voters out there, so appealing to the Old Georgia will her key to victory.

Candidate Spotlight: U.S. Senate Candidate Todd Robinson (D-Columbus)

Todd Robinson (D-Columbus) hopes to be your next U.S. Senator from Georgia in a race that include Michelle Nunn, Branko Radulovacki and Steen Miles. Here are a few tidbits about Mr. Robinson:

He Entered the U.S. Army, June 1979 at Fort Benning GA. Also was a 1986 graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. U.S. Army Drill Sergeant School, graduate of the U.S. Army First Sergeant's course. Fort Bliss Texas, pathfinder course, air assault school, a master parachutist, expert infantryman's badge.  Retired the rank of First Sergeant in 1999 with an honorable discharge.

Currently he is Employed with the Fire & EMS Department over in Columbus, Georgia. 

He is married to WTVM News 9 News Anchor Cheryl Renee. 

Robinson is a Conservative Democrat who's points of interest are;

Welfare Reform , in which to Empowering welfare recipients to become independent of welfare benefits.Conducting cognitive and physical assessments for employment and educational opportunities and providing child daycare assistance for technical school attendees

Reducing Unemployment to training and educating welfare recipients for job placement will reduce Georgia's unemployment rate and increase the state's revenue.  Continue to invite industries to the state.  Advocate for people to get training in the career fields that are plentiful, which will help our state grow.

And fighting for Veteran's Benefits. Being a retired U.S. Army Veteran, Robinson wants to   implementing a state tax exemption for military families for property taxes in order to keep them from purchasing property in bordering Alabama counties, plus help to keep veterans and family members in the state of Georgia.  Continuing to provide for Wounded Warrior transition centers in Georgia and making veterans' health care facilities available throughout the state

As a man of  faith in God and family and the hope of eternal life and Honesty, integrity and loyalty, those things make up the foundation of his character.

If any of those issues are a great concern for any voter, then you might want to consider voting for Todd Robinson candidate for U.S. Senate

First Nunn Campaign Ad of 2014: Optimist.

Georgia Democratic Candidates & The Elusive 8-10%

If you're a democratic candidate here in Georgia, you'll automatically start out with 42-43% of the vote statewide. That's the floor for the democrats here in Georgia. That's a given! But what's more of a concern for democratic candidates is the other 8-10% of the vote that's proving to be elusive.

If look at recent polls, it shows both Michelle Nunn, candidate for the U.S. Senate & Jason Carter, candidate for governor hovering between 40-43%........but neither have advance above the 43% threshold and that's the root of the problem for democratic candidates nowadays in Georgia.

Many of those voters tend to be independent who lean conservative or are just straight independent voters. In my opinion, Zell Miller's 2004 Speech at the Republican National Convention contributed to independents and moderates voters switching from voting for democrats to republican (that's another story for another time)

So how can they capture the other 8-10 percent needed to win statewide contest.

Those voters, but not all of them, I think are conflicted about the role of government, that we know. But they don't like the partisanship coming from both sides. And they're afraid that the product ti come out of such a process will be too partisan, too driven by special interest.

Michelle Nunn, Jason Carter and other ballot democrats can appeal to the moderate republicans, conservative democrats if all can project a positive message in contrast of the doom and gloom, scare the hell out of you message being employed by the republicans because you better believe than Deal and whoever emerges in the republican primary for the U.S. Senate will be waging a negative  campaign filled with scare tactics & conspiracies. Now at some point they (dems) will have to go on the attack if some baseless accusation is hurled at them.

If they can come out talking positively, talking about the future of Georgia, etc, then they can begin to pickoff those voters that are critical for electoral success in November.

The narrative now is that Carter, Nunn has given Georgia Democrats a chance to come out of the wilderness and compete in statewide elections for the first time in over a decade & their star power gives them the opportunity to raise money, mobilize future voters and energize veteran democratic stalwarts who have been beaten down by years of losing at the ballot box.  The key for each of them, along with others like Chris Irvin (Agriculture Commissioner) Greg Hecht (Attorney General) & others is can they appeal to the state's centrist voters who either vote reoublican or simply sit out elections because they don;t like the choices on the ballot and can they build on momentum the party have to build a formidable statewide network?

But in order for democrats to be competitive, they need more than Nunn and Carter at the top of the ticket. Outside of those two, who else on the ballot can help strengthened and appeal to centrist/independent voters tired of the partisan games. It's a tossup, with the exception of Greg Hecht (who ran for Lt. Governor in 2006) the other candidates are first time candidates for statewide office. That's why its essential that Secretary of State candidate Gerald Beckum, a rural white conservative democrat emerge from the democratic primary who knows how to connect to the very voters democrats have had a hard time winning over & Robin Shipp, candidate for Labor Commissioner who have made several trips to middle and south Georgia since announcing her entry for Labor Commissioner) to continue engaging small town voters over the next 7 months.

The hope I think for the party is that these candidates have the ability to reach out to moderate republicans who are disgruntled with the right wing of the republican party, which is the Tea Party, as well as conservative democrats and Independents. Many of these voters long for a common-sense alternative, but need to feel comfortable electing a moderate who's not liberal and who is likely to differ from the National Democratic Party Platform on social issues which will reassure voters who consider those issues important. Then, with voters comfortable, these candidates can share their values and then talk about issues such as education, economic growth and the need for cooperation, which Michelle Nunn is stressing to voters as she travels the state.

They can tell voters they deserve a education system that doesn't cram as many children as possible into a classroom and they shouldn't have a senator, governor or a state legislature that do not view those at the bottom of the barrel of the economic ladder as prone to become dependent on government help if they expand social programs to assist them temporarily through economic hard times. They should have someone in D.C. or Atlanta that don't consider "Bi-partisanship" a dirty word.

To sum it all up: There is no winning here without appealing to independent voters, moderate republicans and conservative democrats. And there;s no winning without the base, which means capitulation doesn't work  Democrats like Jason Carter have to persuade voters in the middle that they can do a better job that the other occupants. Democrats need to make the case for common-sense solutions to problems facing voters here in the state. All too often some dismiss the arguments of the other side as worthless, crazy, stupid, and walk away leaving folks to believe what they hear on talk radio or Fox News which is a right-wing network. Democrats have to engage, they have to persuade, they have to listen to the crazy, out of the mainstream arguments and calmly refute them. That's how you reach voters in the middle.

It's how you change the wind and it's what they will have to do, because I can picture what every GOP candidate running will be talking about: Obamacare (which they are banking on as their meal ticket).....Taxes......Obamacare.......Liberal this.......Obamacare........Harry Reid........Liberal that.........Obamacare, you know the drill.

Nunn, Carter & The Coattail Effect

 There's this thing in Politics called Coattails or "The Coattail Effect" & in this year's midterm elections here in Georgia, one wonders what kind of coattails will Gubernatorial candidate for Governor Jason Carter (D-Decatur), son of former Governor and President James E. ""Jimmy" Carter & U.S. Senate & eventual candidate Michelle Nunn (D-Atlanta), daughter of former State Rep & U.S. Senator Sam Nunn will have in this year's elections.

If you don't know what coattails are, its the power of a popular candidate to gather support for other candidates running on the same party ticket. Strong or winning candidates are said to have coattails when they drag candidates for lower office along with them to victory.

The reality is, when you run for office, the only person you better count on to get the job done is yourself. But of course a candidate cannot win any election without help from many others. All politics are local and local is where any election needs to start.

The Democratic Party can have the best candidates, be on the right side of the issues and put out poll changing marketing, however, without a wide-ranging and extensive ground game, they will come up short time and time again. The proof is in the pudding, look at the 2008 Senate race between Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss. Martin clearly rode the coattails of Barack Obama and as a result he forced Chambliss into a runoff, but when the General Election was over and with no Barack Obama on tip of the ballot, Martin was exposed with a very weak or non-existant ground game needed thus lost in the runoff.

There doesn't need to be some sort of dramatic Soul Searching for Democrats, they just need to be clear, acknowledge the facts and look in the mirror. Elections are different each year, but the fundamentals of a very successful election never ever change. Democrats here in Georgia CANNOT RELY ON HOPE OR SCANDAL OR SOMEONE RESIGNING from the GOP side to win. Although it never hurts.

In Jason Carter & Michelle Nunn, the Democratic Party have two candidates who, depending how their perspective campaigns go could have those valuable coattails needed to pull weaker candidates across the 50% threshold. Both are moderate-minded democrats who can appeal & can pull votes from Independents, suburbanites, rural moderates & disaffected Conservative Democrats. In the case of Michelle Nunn who's making her first run for office, if voters, especially those in Rural Georgia see her in the same mold of her very popular father and former Senator, her coattails could reach as far down to the local level (Commissioner, State Legislative Seats). Jason Carter youth, enthusiasm, passion and his ability to talk and appeal to the Bluecollar working man and woman and his ability to persuade could also have the same effect. His relationship to former President Carter will hinder him with some voters who'll never vote for him because he's a democrat and he's related to President Carter, who is a favorite whipping boy for hardline republicans.

What I know is that coattails aren't just the result of a popular candidate convincing voters to support his or her platform, the most powerful coattail effects are caused by actually changing the composition of the electorate. When the candidate at the top of the ticket catches fire, members of that candidate's party are energized, invigorated. They work harder for the whole ticket and come out to vote for it in higher numbers.

If you're a candidate for congress here in Georgia, it would help if you attach yourself to either one of these candidates or both.

Party labels in my view serve poorly as shortcuts and both National Parties are not popular at the moment. Attaching your campaign to a presidential candidate would do more harm than good. But since gubernatorial candidates are well known inside the state and have a strong network, congressional candidates such as Amy Tavio can win votes by allying with a Carter or Nunn.

But in the end, coattails alone will not be enough for any democrat running for office here in Georgia this year and beyond. He or she must have a decent ground game as well. Just the coattails alone may get them 3-4% more of the vote, but if they want 50%, a ground game is essential.

Democrats Caution: Gun Control is a Loser!!!

Michelle Nunn, Jason Carter & others..ARE YOU LISTENING???

When a lawmaker confronts a given issue, it's in their own interest and the interest of their constituency to do a cost-benefit analysis.  Is it worth the fight?  Will there be sufficient policy upside to spending political capital in pursuit of reform on a given issue.  Back in 2009, I didn't think cap and trade was worth the risk. Congressman Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) narrowly escaped with a victory over Mike Keown because of issues such as Cap and Trade.  The public only cares about climate change in the abstract, so if lawmakers were to ask for financial or lifestyle sacrifice from the masses in pursuit of keeping the planet livable for the human race a little longer, it would be far more sacrifice than the public was willing to endure.  And even for those who believe it's worth the political risk to save the planet, how much can be gained when the rest of the globe refuses to play along?

Being a pro-gun democrat, I'm torn on this issue as I believe law-abiding citizens should not be penalized for gun ownership.  On the other hand, the gun rights crowd presents such delusional and unpersuasive arguments on their own behalf, they make themselves impossible to defend.  No sane person's interpretation of the Second Amendment justifies limitless weaponization with no regulations whatsoever.  Still, the gun fetish has consumed the good sense of many millions of Americans, and there will undeniably be political retribution for crossing them.

Would it be worth it for the Democrats to throw away this constituency in which some base their vote entirely on one issue such as guns?  In my mind, it's an unequivocal no, even though I don't disagree with specific legislative goals of toughening background checks.

The majority that supports gun control is a mile wide and an inch deep, and the issue is extremely low intensity for just about everybody on the gun control side of the persuasion.  But when it comes to the gun rights crowd, there is no higher priority in life for them than firearms lawlessness.  And the lopsided intensity on the side of the gun rights crowd means huge financial contributions to gun-rights candidates and special interests, along with a full-throttle turnout at the polls in future election cycles by people convinced ATF agents will soon be going door to door to take away their hunting rifles. And like it or not, gun rights advocates do a terrific job at turning out at the polls during election time because they are passionate about the right to bear arms and so am I.

Millions of voters who would be receptive to the Democrats' message on saving Social Security and Medicare, or on pressuring the business community to reverse decades of wage and benefit declines amidst an increasingly stratified income disparity in this country, will tune all of that out and hitch their wagon to those shouting the loudest about guns and that is also another fact!

All Points Bulletin To Georgia Dems: Stop Avoiding......or Running Away From The Rural Georgia Voter!!!!!!!!!!

Democrats for some reason are afraid of the Rural Georgia Voter. For some mathematically challenged reason, they don't think they can beat the republicans on this isolated, sparsely populated terrain and that is sad from my vantage point. Congressman John Barrow although he is a congressman have no problem with going out and appealing to rural voters in his conservative-tilting district and he enjoys doing it. If Statewide Democrats and democrats in general have the kind of passion and drive Congressman Barrow, who is a independent, conservative democrat in the mold of the late Congressman Bo Ginn (D-Millen) who held that district during the late 1970s-early 80s have, the party would be in much better shape down here

As we approach 2014, I will be watching very closely to see whether or not statewide candidates will put forth a effort and build grassroots support from the Swamps of Ware County to the Cotton fields of Dooly County to the Mountains of Rabun County.

All statewide democrats have to do is just go talk to people. But don't do it in a condescending, "We're going to teach you people how to vote" kind of thing. Go sit at Priscilla's Restaurant in Eastman, Ga or Sister's Country Kitchen in Hazelhurst, Ga and listen to the concerns of citizens who feel slighted by what they see as no progress in terms of job creation, the regression of the local school systems, etc. Establish a presence in Rural Areas such as these. Be a source of information and support. Most Rural Georgians are long-time residents and that means for generations. If Democrats.....Georgia Democrats are seen as just regular people and not the three-headed monster Faux Nooz and the Republican Party (who have had a control of rural Georgia for over a decade now) you'll go a long way toward earning back their trust and ultimately their ear.

One candidate, Gerald Beckum, candidate for the U.S. Senate will have no problem, being a rural conservative democratic mayor of a small town. As for the others and other potential candidates, that remains to be seen.

And for goodness sakes, lose the terminology like "Hicks", "Hillbillies" in describing rural residents in this state. Believe it or not, for the most part, these are good people who would do anything in the world for a person in need. It's important to remember that if the Georgia Democratic Party is grow their numbers, they need to stop avoiding Rural Georgians. If a Jason Carter, or Branko Radulovacki, or Michelle Nunn or whoever can cast him/herself as the candidate for rural voters, someone who understands the plight and values of the rural, bluecollar family, family farmers and attract culturally conservative voters in South Georgia. 

Rural Georgia is pivotal for the resurgence for Georgia Democrats next year going forward. But they must have the right candidate, one who can break through the rural way of life and the culture brickwall, which no democrat, at least so far haven't shown a willingness to do.

It's not complicated: All they have to do is show up!

These visits are important because they have a multiplier effect: Each meeting will lead to a conversation at the barber shop, grocery store or at church about how that democrat came to town. Don't underestimate the power of the grapevine in Rural Georgia!

By democrats staying away from Rural Georgia since 2002, they allowed Republicans to define and caricature them, especially on social issues such as religion and guns. If democrats don't show up, people will only hear what republicans say about them. When Roy Barnes made that ill fated decision to not put much effort into Rural Georgia in 2002, the republicans defined him in unsavory terms and the famous "King Roy" and "Boot Barnes" slogans were all over the place (from his decision to change the confederate flag, among other issues that lead to his defeat). Because of Barnes lack of presence in rural Georgia, he couldn't refute it.

But democrats from here on out, even those who will run for the State legislature need to forcefully explain their convictions, even if they're out of step with Rural Georgia. Rural Georgians can live with candidates with whom they disagree on some issues. But nowadays people are reticent about saying they're a democrat and the reason is because many feel that democrats of today do not share their values and interests. 

Winning with only the bread and butter issues is not enough to appeal to the rural voter. Many here are homeowners and entrepreneurs and and like low taxes and less regulations among other things so that's one of the reasons they vote republican.

Former Secretary of State Lewis Massey Should Consider Another Statewide Run

If there's anytime for Lewis Massey to make a return to Georgia Politics, it's right now. Many of may remember Massey who served as Georgia's Secretary of State from 1996 to 1999, first appointed by then governor Zell Miller (D-Young Harris) at 34 years old. Massey would later make a run for governor back in 1998, losing to eventual winner Roy Barnes (D-Mableton).

Massey who is now 51 is currently a partner in Massey, Watson, Bowers & Hembree LLL, which specializes in Public Affairs. Tattnall County Sheriff Quinton Rush once said of Massey, a University of Georgia graduate, who made numerous trips to the county during his run for governor back in 1998: "He's a fresh face with good intentions. He's been here about four times in the past few months. I like him, he's a family man. I've been in law enforcement for 30 years and I feel like I'm a good judge of character."

Massey who father Abit Massey once served as director of  the powerful Georgia Poultry Association for over 40 plus years worked for Joe Frank Harris in his bid for governor back in the 1980s, then later he went on to work for Pierre Howard for Lt. Governor.

Massey is a moderately conservative democrat who should consider another statewide run....he's only 51 which is relatively young in today's politics. I don't know whether or not he plans to re-enter the political world, but if he is, now is the right time to do so. In politics, it's all about timing. Maybe it wasn't the best time back in 1998, but in 2014 or even 2018, it could be. With Michelle Nunn running for the U.S. Senate, Jason Carter for Governor, why not Massey for Lt. Governor? Or Labor or Insurance Commissioner?

Carter Announces Bid For Georgia Governor

Earlier Today State Senator Jason Carter announced his entry into Georgia's Governor's Race next year.

Carter, 38 is the grandson of Former President and one time Georgia Governor James E. "Jimmy" Carter of Plains, Ga. Carter, was elected to the Georgia Senate in 2010. In his professional career, Jason is an attorney at the business litigation firm of Bondurant, Mixson & Elmore, LLP. In addition to his business practice, he has received numerous awards for his pro-bono efforts and leadership within the bar. He also served as a United States Peace Corps Volunteer in Lochiel, South Africa. He received his law degree 
summa cum laude from the University of Georgia, and received his undergraduate degree from Duke University. Jason and his wife Kate have two young sons. They live in DeKalb County.''

Carter is pledging to build a coalition of urban and rural with a focus on education and the economy. This is crucial for him as well as Michelle Nunn. The last time democrats had that coalition, they were more successful at the polls.

Carter's entry gives Democrats two top tier prospects going into 2014. Connie Stokes who first announced her run for governor will now instead seek the Lt. Governor post, which is held by Casey Cagle.

I'll have more on this later