Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Political Scientist Charles Bullock thinks Bluedogs like Barrow could pay a price in 2010. I don't think so!

Next year, conservative Blue Dog Democrats like U.S. Rep. John Barrow, a former Athens-Clarke commissioner who now lives in Savannah, "could pay a price, like Don Johnson did," UGA political science professor Charles Bullock said.
Challenging Barrow are Carl Smith, a firefighter from Thunderbolt & Wayne Moseley, Iraq War Veteran & Surgeon, who says he will spend $500,000 of his own money to take on Barrow in 2010. Here in the Second District, Mike Keown is going to challenge Sanford Bishop for his seat in 2010 as well. These candidates are banking on the issues of Healthcare, Government Bailouts & Tea Parties to get them to congress in 2010. Like Bishop said half of his district wants it, the other half does not want it. Bishop needs to extra careful how he goes about this. If he votes for a bill that includes the public option, or adds to the deficit, or raises taxes, the republicans will beat him over the head with it. The large support he has with moderate to conservative white voters could go to Keown if he slips up on this healthcare insurance reform. Now I still say he will win re-election, but you never know.
John Barrow will win against either challenger. His consttuent services are top-notch. He holds these "Barrow on the Corner" meetings in every county & he has solidified his hold on that seat. What republicans are banking on is (1) a low voter turnout by black voters & (2) white, conservative voters leaving Barrow in droves & going to the republican challenger. I see neither happening because of statewide races here in 2010 (I'll get to that later). Now Do-nothing politicians like John Linder thinks the opposite: Linder predicted that Blue Dogs from conservative districts will listen to their constituents and bail out on health care reform. And they'll lose anyway. Linder & others are dreaming of a replay like 1994, but time are different. This country is more diverse, young people are much more involved in the political process this time, there are alot more independent voters, & with the first african-american president in the Oval Office, african-americans will be more engaged this time around than they were back in 1994.

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