Teilhet may have company for AG. Hodges considers AG run

ALBANY — Ken Hodges of Atlanta, former district attorney for the Dougherty Judicial Circuit, says he is "99 percent sure" he going to seek to become Georgia's top lawyer.

Hodges said in a telephone interview late Saturday that he was close to making a decision to replace Thurbert E. Baker, who plans to run for governor, as attorney general.

"I am very close to making the decision," Hodges said. "I’m probably 99 percent sure I am going to do it. There was no consideration until Thurbert said he would run for governor. I would not have run against him."

Hodges says he has been gauging support from around the state the past few days.

"It’s been very positive so far," he said. "There are other calls to make and people I want to talk with. If it continues as it has so far, I expect to make a formal announcement in the not too distant future."

Hodges was D.A. in Albany for about 12 years before he left for Atlanta late in 2008 to become managing partner of the Atlanta office of Baudino Law Group, a health care litigation firm based in Des Moines, Iowa.

Hodges is in charge of the Atlanta office for Baudino and the recently-opened Albany office.

"I’ll do like I did when I ran for district attorney the first time. I’ll work during the day & campaign at night & on weelends.

Hodges said the attorney general is "an important position."

"You need some have somebody in there that is going to protect the laws of the state and look out for the people.," he said. "I view this as a logical progression from what I did as district attorney there."

Hodges says he was aggressive in his role regarding death penalty decisions.

"The attorney general has to represent state agencies in a civil capacity, and I had done that prior to becoming a D.A. and am doing that now," he said. "It’s an easy transition for me to make."

Hodges noted that he and Baker have always had an "outstanding" relationship and that Baker had endorsed him in his last contested race.

The opening has already attracted several people with interest in the job.

Rob Teilhet of Smyrna, a Democrat, has already announced his plans to seek the job.

Also, State Rep. Ed Lindsey (R-Atlanta) is considering a run for the office.

Bill Kinney: If Roy runs again, he needs new strategy

Former Gov. Roy Barnes might be the favorite to win the Dem nomination over former Labor Commissioner David Poythress and House Minority Leader Dubose Porter of Dublin in Laurens County if his campaign is presented wisely.

But how does he get the rural votes back? He can't win statewide just with strong showings in Clayton, DeKalb and Fulton. And black votes probably won't turn out at the same rate next year as it did in 2008 when blacks accounted for a record 30 percent of the state's total turnout, allowing Dem challenger Obama to win a respectable 47 percent, the highest percentage a Dem presidential candidate has won in Georgia over the last 45 years, except for native son Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980. The previous record for a non-Georgian Dem since 1964 was: Lyndon Johnson that year and Bill Clinton in 1996.

If Barmes came back and won, he'd be the first governor since Gene Talmadge to win non-consecutive terms for governor. Georgia governors were not allowed to seek two consecutive four-years terms until George Busbee (1975-1983).

When ol' Gene was first elected governor in 1932, governors could serve only two two-year terms, then had to step down before running again. Starting with the 1942 election, Georgia governors were elected to four-year terms, but could only serve one term at a time, then had to step down before running again, four years later.

Busbee won a second four year term in 1978. Joe Frank Harris in 1986, Zell Miller in 1994 and Gov. Sonny Perdue in 2006. Barnes is the only one in the modern era not to win a second term

Politicos say Barnes first needs to win back the state's school teachers he made mad about education reform. Barnes apparently assumed teachers would always vote Democratic. But they didn't. However, a lot of teachers are not wild about Gov. Perdue either these days because of education cuts.

As for the polls, there is always some margin of error, but I think Columnist Bill Shipp stated something to the effect they were the worst/most wrong polls he had ever seen. One thing to keep in mind , polls never had Barnes much above 50 percent - 49-42.

Usually the undecideds votes for the challenger. In this case, Perdue. Often it is said that if someone is undecided, they won't vote for the incumbent. The presumption is that the undecideds are not wanting to vote for the incumbent, and wanting to know more first about the challenger.

Barnes problem was not that his vote total dropped a lot. It stayed roughly the same, 941,000 votes in 1998, 937,000 votes in 2002. The problem was that Perdue got a lot more votes - about 250,000 more than GOP candidate Guy Millner got in 1998 against Barnes. So, Perdue's base grew and Barnes' stagnated.

Another factor in Barnes' loss was the relatively low black turnout, which was about 10 points less than the white turnout rate, which was about 48 percent, whites 57 percent.

Chuck Bullock, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, wrote this about Barnes' loss in 2002:

"No one foresaw Barnes' defeat - not his tracking polls, not Perdue's polls, and not surveys conducted by the media hinted at the incumbent's vulnerability. Late polling showed Barnes gradually widening a lead and edging above 50 percent. From late September (2002) to late October, polls sponsored by the Atlanta newspapers showed Barnes widening his lead from 49-42 percent to 51-40 percent just a week before the election. The shift in the newspaper poll paralleled what Barnes's tracking polls were tapping.

The governor's change of the state flag alienated an active set of white voters, especially in rural Georgia. Without promising a return of the flag that the state had used since the mid-1950s, Perdue indicated that he "shared their pain" and repeatedly criticized his opponent for denying the public any direct input on the decision to change the flag or its design, a design judged to be the ugliest flag by a group of flag specialist.

If black turnout rate had matched white turnout rate, it would have been a cliffhanger, not a 105,000-vote win for Perdue, maybe just 10,000-20,000.

Barnes had the same problem former state Rep. Steve Tumlin of Marietta had - Tumlin's vote totals stagnated between 2004 and 2008. Tumlin got 7,915 votes when he beat Pat Dooley in 2004 and 7,964 votes in 2008 when he lost to Dooley, while Dooley got 6,893 votes in 2004 and 8,448 votes last fall. Tumlin gained just 49 votes between 2004-2008 while Dooley gained 1,555 votes, thanks to increased black voter turnout.

Rural voters may sway race for governor

What I have been saying all along. The candidate most likely to be elected governor next year is the one who can carry rural Georgia.

Odds favor the Republican. No surprise. Georgia is a red state.

Barack Obama made it close. Excluding Jimmy Carter who carried Georgia twice, Obama got a higher percentage here (47 percent) than any other Democratic presidential candidate has since 1964.

It’s inconceivable that any other candidate could come close to repeating the Obama effect. A Democrat who can’t turn out a phenomenal percentage of the black vote in the general election probably shouldn’t plunk down the qualifying fee to run for one of the top two statewide offices on the ballot in 2010, governor and U.S. senator. And yet one who runs too far left to get it is dog food in the general election in November.

Latest of the Democrats to announce are Attorney General Thurbert Baker and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, a lawyer and newspaper editor.

Baker’s entry seriously complicates life for the three moderate whites who’ve announced or are being urged to announce, including Porter, former Adjutant General David Poythress and former Gov. Roy Barnes.

Blacks, who are likely to be energized by the prospect of following Obama’s success with the election of a black governor, are 30 percent of the registered voters and half of the Democratic primary base. In 2006, Baker got more votes than any other Democrat running statewide and more, even, than two Republicans who’ll be vying for governor, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Karen Handel. Only Gov. Sonny Perdue, School Superintendent Kathy Cox and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, another Republican gubernatorial candidate, got more votes.

Baker’s a moderate who’s generally well liked. Assuming he’s able to resist the pressure that’s always on Democrats to veer left, he could emerge from the primary as a strong contender in November. The Democratic base is probably 41-43 percent. Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor got 38 percent against Perdue in 2006. Without Obama’s coattails, Jim Martin got 43 percent in a runoff last December against U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Porter, Poythress and Barnes all have their strengths, too. Porter, as minority leader, has made the House Democratic caucus a more cohesive, focused group whose members are less likely to rush before TV cameras to blurt out rants. By the traditional gauge of candidate likability, the fishing standard, Porter will wear well. The “fishing standard” is “which of the people running would you actually like to take fishing?”

Barnes has the experience, the contacts and the ability to raise money, all important. Poythress has been adjutant general, secretary of state and commissioner of labor and was well-regarded in all.

Had Democrats been able to hold on to rural Georgia, they’d now be in control statewide. The 28-county metro area, which represented 57 percent of the vote last November, is trending Democratic. Obama won the region, 51-48, largely because he won Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton by almost 400,000 votes. Outside metro Atlanta, John McCain prevailed with 58 percent.

Any successful Democrat needs to be center-right in rural Georgia and capable of turning out a huge black vote in metro Atlanta. Liberal activists, including those in the General Assembly and in the pure, hard-core Democratic areas like DeKalb and Clayton, are trouble for their candidates. If they cut them some slack through the primary, their November chances improve considerably. Known liberals lose Georgia. Get them firmly on record as supporting the Obama agenda, for example, and they’re toast.

Republican gubernatorial candidates also need to be center-right in rural Georgia. It prefers Chamber of Commerce types who’ll not lunge sharply left or right. Sonny Perdue. Joe Frank Harris. George Busbee. Solid, dependable, predictable. No sudden moves. Gradualism. They carried Georgia for McCain, just as they put Perdue in the governor’s mansion in 2002.

While the bulk of the vote is in metro Atlanta and it is trending Democratic, it’s still pretty evenly split. It’s the rest of Georgia that picks winners.

Casey Cagle to be in Macon County to speak to Chamber of Commerce.

Lt. Governor Casey Cagle (R) will be in Montezuma to speak to the Macon County Chamber of Commerce on April 23 at 7:00 p.m. Casey is running for governor on the republican side. I'm planning on attending this event in 2 weeks & hope to get a word from Cagle.

Macon County is the second poorest county in the state behind Hancock County. The chamber seems to be only collecting a paycheck because they damn sure aren't trying to attract businesses here in the county. There are alot of political hacks here in the county, some never ever being challenged for their post & not responding to the needs of the citizens of the county. That's why I'm running for Oglethorpe City Council because I would like to :

1. Spur economic development in the city by proposing the city to build a business/Industrial Park.

2. Re-create Oglethorpe High School & make it a charter school to keep our young students from attending schools in neighboring counties.

3. Bring new businesses to downtown Oglethorpe that would benefit the community.

Republican Congressional Gains in the Peach State are Grim.

In 2006, Republicans came within a hair of taking two Georgia congressional seats from the Democrats, garnering 49% in the 8^th District and 49.7% in the 12^th. But in 2008, due in part to the large turnout of African-American voters spurred by Barack Obama’s candidacy, the Republican share of the voted declined substantially in both districts. There is now talk among some GOPers about making a major effort in one or both districts next year, when Obama will not be on the ballot and the popularity of his administration may have dimmed.

Jim Marshall (D) 8th District:

There are some factors that suggest a Republican congressional candidate could do well in the 8^th. McCain carried the district over Obama by 56% to 43%, and in the US Senate runoff in December between US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and former lawmaker Jim Martin (D), Chambliss won 60% to 40%. But, says a close observer of Peach State politics, “There’s a perception that Marshall is out of reach….He does a pretty good job of distancing himself from Obama and has a fairly moderate voting record.” Indeed, National Journal scored Marshall 55% conservative, 45% liberal in its latest rating. He did, however, vote for Obama’s stimulus package.

Perhaps sensing that Marshall is not vulnerable, no GOPers have indicated they plan to challenge him next year. Rick Goddard, former commanding general at Warner Robbins Air Force Base, garnered 43% against Marshall in 2008, not a strong enough showing to guarantee a re-run. But he has not ruled out another race and his name usually gets mentioned in any discussion of potential challengers to Marshall.

Former 3^rd District Congressman Mac Collins, who suffered a razor-thin (49%) loss in the District in 2006, did not run again in 2008, mainly because the Republican establishment -- in Washington as well as in Georgia -- got behind Goddard’s candidacy. There have been no signs that Collins will run, but he gets mentioned also.

John Barrow (D) 12th District:

US Rep. John Barrow (D) was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2008. At the same time Obama carried the district with 55%, and in the December 2008 US Senate runoff, Democrat Martin carried the district by 51% to 49% over Chambliss. The base of the Democratic strength here is the large African-American population, which accounts for about 43% of the electorate.

Despite these daunting statistics, Republican Wayne Moseley, an orthopedic surgeon and a veteran of the war in Iraq, has already announced his candidacy and pledged to spend $500,000 of his own money in his campaign.

At least two other Republicans are potential candidates for next year’s race. State Rep. Jon Burns is from Effingham County, which has the largest number of GOP-leaning voters in the district. State Rep. Bob Lane is from Bulloch County, the second largest Republican County. “Both are pretty popular,” says a Republican district insider.

John Stone, a former aide to the late Congressman Charlie Norwood (R), suffered a 34%-to-66% loss to Barrow last year and has announced that he will not run for the seat in 2010.

Interesting analysis from Tom Baxter of Southern Political Report.

Coming as it did on one of the newsiest legislative days of the year, the word that Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker plans to file the paperwork shortly to start raising money for the race caught many observers off guard. Former state adjutant general David Poythress is the only announced Democrat in the race, but most of the speculation, especially in recent days, has centered around former Gov. Roy Barnes.

Barnes is said to be still considering what would be his fourth governor’s race, and could take until midyear to decide. But having an African-American who has won three statewide elections in the race deprives the former Democratic governor of the leisure he formerly enjoyed in making up his mind.

Ironically, Barnes reportedly was meeting this week with a delegation of black leaders, including former UN Ambassador Andrew Young, who wanted to encourage him to run. The meeting was scheduled before Baker’s announcement.

One key to Baker’s success could be how well a law-and-order campaign will play among African-American voters. As the state’s chief legal officer, Baker angered many in his base by opposing the release of Genarlow Wilson, serving a mandatory 10-year sentence for consensual oral sex with a 15-year-old girl when he was 17, and his defense of the state’s voter ID law. (Baker did split with Gov. Sonny Perdue earlier this year, however, refusing to write an amicus brief in a US Supreme Court case challenging Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.)

With crime on the rise as the economy sours, Baker is hoping an anti-crime message will play well among voters of all races. One interesting question is whether former US Sen. Zell Miller, who’s friendly with Baker, will openly support him, especially if Barnes gets in. In recent years, Miller has mostly endorsed Republicans.

Now that's the question I have. Will Miller publicly support Baker in his quest to become govenor. If he does, baker would have a huge advantage over the others in attracting rural voters who are still fond of Miller in the primary. The way I look at it, if baker or any other democrat can get a huge chuck of rural votes, it will pay huge dividends for them in the fall of 2010.

Anyone wants to be Agriculture Commissioner?

I tried to persuade State Rep. Gerald Greene (D-Cuthbert) to consider running for Agriculture Commissioner, but he tells me he is happy where he is. With rumors speculation that Terry Coleman, (who I endorsed for the position) won't run for AG Commissioner, dems don't have a candidate in the wings to run for the seat. One e-mail sent to me that Alan Powell may be interested, but a choice that would make sense would be Sanford Bishop. I doubt he would leave his seat to come home to run for the post, but he would be the odds-on favorite to take over Irvin's seat in 2010.