Thursday, September 9, 2010

Here's what Hasting Wyman of the Southern Political Report says about Ga's 2nd & 8th Districts

Georgia 2 (Albany, etc.) Nine-term Sanford Bishop (D) should be okay in this 47 percent black district, but this year state Rep. Mike Keown (R) is waging a well-financed challenge in a district that occasionally votes Republican. In 2004, for example, George W. Bush, squeezed out a 50 percent to 49.6 percent victory over John Kerry within the district’s current boundaries, though Obama got 54 percent in 2008. The black vote usually declines sharply in a non-presidential year – 46 percent of turnout in 2008, but 38 percent in 2006. Bishop, who usually gets significant white support, may be losing a lot of it over his vote for “Obamacare.” A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll taken for Keown in early August gave Bishop 50 percent, Keown 44 percent. Leans Democratic.

Georgia 8 (Macon, etc.) Four-termer Jim Marshall (D) looked problem-free for months, then he got a foe with credentials in state Rep. Austin Scott (R), a somewhat maverick lawmaker (one of the few GOPers to favor a non-Confederate state flag) and the national mood started to make itself felt in this district where McCain beat Obama 56 percent-43 percent. The near-solidly Democratic black vote here was 33 percent of turnout in 2008, but 25 percent in 2006. An American Viewpoint (R) poll taken in late August for Scott gave Marshall 44 percent, Scott 39 percent. Another poll gave Marshall 50 percent, Scott 45 percent. Scott is getting hit for state legislative votes for tax hikes. The district gave McCain 57 percent in 2008 and though Marshall voted against healthcare, he’s got a fight on his hands. Tossup.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Marshall will be re-elected and so will bishop who has opened the door to a 2012 challenge from a dem

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