The Tea Party will re-elect Barack Obama in 2012?

And here's why:

If Barack Obama is somehow able to win reelection, the Tea Party should be on his list for a thank you note. President Obama’s prospects for reelection are decidedly mixed, but better than we’d expect given all else in the environment.

The economy is terrible, unemployment is high, and President Obama’s approval rating is extremely low. Normally, this bodes badly for a president seeking reelection, although in this case, Obama’s approval rating is still much higher than the ratings for Congress or the Republican Party. The Tea Party deserves some of the credit.

At least two Tea Party achievements are now helping the president: By invigorating the Republican Party’s base and helping it make huge gains in the 2010 elections, activists have been able to pressure members of Congress to work on their agenda....an agenda that isn’t very popular with the rest of the country.

The Republican Party in Congress is now comprised of people elected with Tea Party support, others who fear being challenged in primaries by Tea Partiers. The House passed Rep. Paul Ryan’s model budget, which would slash both taxes and government and turn Medicare into a voucher program. Policy merits (or de-merits) aside, it’s awful politics. Republicans turned the debt ceiling debate into a debacle, and are now blocking an extension of the reduced payroll tax on working Americans to protect low rates on–really–millionaires.

Tea Party enthusiasts are still disappointed. Others are scared. And the Republicans need a presidential candidate to beat Barack Obama. Without discussing intelligence and integrity at this point, candidates for the Republican nomination have created the weakest field of hopefuls in my opinion in either party for generations.

The party out of power wants to nominate a presidential candidate who can win elections, and has demonstrated that ability in the past, preferably by winning big elections. Practically, this means governors and senators, preferably from large and/or swing states. Among the top tier of candidates, only Mitt Romney (Massachusetts) and........ Rick Perry (Texas), yes Rick Perry qualify on this front, and Governor Perry has disappointed as a campaigner so you can almost stick a fork in him. Ex-Governor & Ex--U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman (Utah) have generated minimal support, but he out of all the GOP candidates is the most well-positioned to take on President Obama & win because he doesn't come off as a scary, or a loon or too hardcore for voters who are independent/moderate.

Meanwhile, the rest of the field has included Herman Cain, a radio host who could have surprised political pols had not been for the various women who came out against him who alleged he had either sexual harassed them or affairs with them, former Senator Rick Santorum, who had been at the bottom of the barrel has found new life in a new polls showing him surging with the Iowa Caucuses only 5 days away, & two sitting members of the House, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul), and a former Speaker of the House Newton "Newt" Gingrich who was forced to resign in disgrace by his own party more than a decade ago & someone who I said could give Obama a run for his money if he somehow makes it to the general election.

The Tea Party mobilization within the Republican Party scared off or silenced many establishment Republicans, and nourished several weak and improbable candidates. It has also moved the entire debate far to the right, with candidates trying to cultivate the enthusiasm demonstrated by Tea Partiers.

Because he started organizing and fundraising early, and because he has been willing to pander to the Tea Party, Governor Romney has survived all of this, but left little space and money for anyone else from the party establishment. Romney has been unable to increase his support, and thus far, no one else has been able to topple him.

While journalists and political junkies may fantasize about the excitement of a brokered convention, it’s likely that one of the candidates still in the field will win the nomination through the primary process. If it’s Governor Romney, he will be a less than inspiring choice for the Tea Partiers and some evangelicals at the Republican base, but he will have made enough pandering statements to them to fill the ads of his Democratic opponents.

Any of the other Republican candidates would be substantially weaker in a general election. Either way, the Tea Party has had the perverse effect of helping the electoral prospects of its prime target.

The Peach State's "Affirmative Action" Racial Redistricting

Racial Gerrymandering is no longer needed if you ask me. I'm a strong believer that majority-minority districts are no longer needed because blacks have made vast improvements in American society. The strides blacks have made in American society are greater than any other minority group in this country. But I will admit that black had the furthest to go & blacks still occupy a lower socioeconomic position in society, but chooses to focus on the improvements blacks have made.

Those arguing for majority-minority districts believe that because of continued racism whites will not vote for black candidates, which is not true. Look at former Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder as examples of Black(Moderate) candidates who won contest in their perspective states.

Now those candidates with drastically liberal views, be if they're black or white, will rarely be elected to office in the south. Blacks constitute an ideological minority and this explains their inability to be elected in the south. When blacks are elected in the south it is often because they are conservative.

One thing is certain, that the creation of majority-minority districts unfairly stigmatizes black voters. It gives the perception that blacks are relegated to a position of helplessness in our society. They can get no where in society unless they are given special favors. Further, underlying the creation of majority-minority districts is the premise that race is the most important factor when choosing representatives. Creating districts categorizes people in terms of race that is a dangerous practice. The entire goal of the civil rights movement was to stop viewing people in terms of race and to start viewing people in terms of individuals and the majority-minority districting system does just that.

Despite the fact that blacks are in general more liberal on some issues, majority-minority districts are not necessary for blacks to win elections. Those supporting racial gerrymandering commonly believe that 65 percent of a district must be black to ensure a black representative will be elected. However, a number of blacks have been elected in districts in which less that 50 percent of the districts’ population was black. (Sanford Bishop, Floyd Griffin, State Senate in 1992, Michael Thurmond, State House in 1986)

Also interests are not linked to race. In other words, a white person can represent the interest of blacks just as a black can represent the interests of whites. This is because interests can not be identified solely on the basis of race. Substantive representation is more important that descriptive representation. Descriptive representation has no bearing on substantive representation. there is no guarantee that a black official will support the same policies as most blacks do. Gerrymandering is becoming an ineffective method of ensuring minority representation. When majority-minority districts are created, first a pocket of blacks must be target. We are running out of areas to target and create majority-minority districts. 10 years from now, we can expect severe limitations on what can be achieved by relying on the creation of black districts to ensure the election of black politicians.

Yesterday, the Department of Justice approved the new maps redrawn by Georgia Republicans & as a result the Georgia Legislative Black Caucus has threatened to fight the DOJ over the "Affirmative Action" Racial Gerrymandering Maps.

How to best draw representational lines raises a fundamental philosophical and practical issue for African-Americans--the problem of duality. The problem takes many forms: integration versus separation, inclusion versus communal obligation, and as we can see in the reapportionment battle, direct representation by blacks versus black influence over mostly white officeholders. Strong arguments can be made on both sides. 10 years ago, Many African-American political leaders, including many members of the Georgia Legislative Black Caucus, felt that having direct representation is more important than preserving or "saving" white Democratic seats. So they, along with the-then minority Republicans came together to create more black districts, which in effect hung white rural democrats out to dry. As a result of those actions, you now have a democratic legislature that is 98% Black. Now they're saying the new maps discriminate against African Americans. Black Dems suck as Rep Tyrone Brooks (R-Atlanta) who led the effort to maximize black representation now have to lay in the bed they made themselves.

"Affirmative Action Racial Gerrymandering," as I call it, creates more division within the state and may not be in the best long-term self-interest of the African-American community. Drawing districts--whether they be school districts, city or county council districts, legislative districts, or U.S. House districts--with a first priority of maximizing the number of majority-minority districts re segregates communities, causes representatives to see issues mainly in terms of black and white, divides communities into multiple districts so that they lose a clear single voice devoted to them, and has a general negative impact on race relations. Creating majority African American districts tends to pack districts with African-American voters so that representatives from neighboring nearly all-white districts pay little attention to the needs of blacks.

Concentrating black voters in districts to elect black representatives dilute support among other representatives for bills favored by blacks. Spreading black voters across more districts resulted in the election of representatives who were more sensitive to black interests. Its a waste of time & effort for democrats to go to court over the maps. Just Let it be! With 63 democrats in the house, 20 in the senate, this map will force democrats to compete in areas that they had written off in the past. The "Big Tent Party" now has to live up to that monikor & re-open it arms for conservative-minded democrats in its ranks. If not, then they better get comfortable being in the wilderness for the next 10, 20, 30 years.

We'll Be Back After New Year's 2012

Peanut Politics will be back roaring & ready to go in January 2012. Have a very Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year!!

Businessman Thomas Coogle II to run for Georgia State House in 2012

Yesterday at the Macon County Courthouse, BlueDog Democrat Thomas L "Tom" Coogle II (D-Montezuma) announced his candidacy for State Representative HD 135 (139 under new proposed map) which includes Dooly, Macon, Taylor & southern Peach County. Incumbent Lynmore James (D-Montezuma) will step down after the 2012 legislative session due to various health issues he's been dealing with over that last few years.

Coogle, a 33 year old Businessman & Vice-President of Reynolds Foodliner hopes to succeed James as representative to bring about more jobs to the district which includes Macon County, the third poorest county in the state of Georgia. This will be Coogle's first time running for elected office

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs is the key issue for Coogle, who business background gives him an advantage over other potential candidates, which includes Taylor County Commissioner Patty Bentley who announced her candidacy back in October.

Coogle says he's running as a Democrat, but hopes to bridge the gap between the two political parties under the Gold Dome in Atlanta.

A father of three, Coogle is a Lutheran, member of the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, Macon County Chamber of Commerce & the Georgia Food industry Association & a graduate of Georgia Southwestern State University. His wife Jill Tatum-Coogle is a elementary school teacher for the Macon County School System

Coogle's grandfather T.L. Coogle a Conservative Democrat served as State Representative from 1948-56.

2012 a Litmus Test for Georgia Dems?

With the 2011 season coming to a end, now is the time to start talking about the 2012 political season.

With all of the attention being to paid to happenings up on Capitol Hill & rightfully so, down here in Georgia, 2012 will be sort of a litmus test for the future of the Georgia Democratic Party.

Now if you want to talk about a party that's at a serious crossroads look no further than the State Democratic Party here in the Peach State & 2012 will be the year that sets the tone for the party going forward

Operatives at the State Party have to decide what direction the party should take....do they want to continue to take it to the murky waters of the left, which will never gain a strong foothold here in the empire state of the south....OR...do they want to reposition it to what it was when they had its most successes of the 1990s all the way up to 2001......back to the center?

There are some who think that taking the party to the left will eventually appeal to everyday mainstream Georgians who mostly are centrist/conservative in nature. NO IT WILL NO'T!

There are those who think that the Latino population will rescue the party from its doldrums, but you're talking about 10-15 years down the line. And there's no guarantee that the Latino population will continue to increase here in Georgia over the next few years & who's to say that they will be a monolithic voting bloc for the party like African-American have been for over 45 years? Do you really want to put all of your eggs in that basket?

I remember attending a democratic party meeting down in South Georgia last year where a white liberal burst out saying..."Hey let's forget about the white working class vote, we don't need then anymore" & let's focus on increasing our minority strength here in Georgia. Now that's where the "Let's wait for the population to shift" theory comes in. That kind of attitude will absolutely hurt the party even more in its attempt to appeal to Whites.

There will be some Conservative Democrats running for office next year for the state legislature & it will present the democrats with another opportunity to show that they are really a BIG TENT PARTY because right now that moniker doesn't apply to them. Its not healthy for the party in the long run....hell RIGHT NOW to be a party basically made up of only majority Black Georgians, sprinkled with Latinos, Gays, Lesbians & a handful of Urban/Suburban White Liberals.

2012 will the litmus test for the party. Will they show a openness for helping elect Moderate/Conservative Democrats, black or white? Or will they continue to support one track minded, out of touch, weak candidates who can only appeal to one demographic & have the inability to appeal to those who doesn't share the same views as they do?

The key person to keep an eye on is Miguel Camacho who was elected to recruit candidates for the party. This is a whole different ballgame, this isn't Chatham County where you can look around the corner to find a candidate with a snap of a finger, you're talking about statewide, especially Rural Georgia where he's got to find democratic candidates that has the ability to appeal, to connect to every person no matter of race, religion or background. That's going to be the hard part for Camacho who probably has never ventured to isolated areas of rural central 7 South Georgia

Herman Cain Needs Sam Nunn Right Now

Former Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain is on a roll right now despite what some like David Gergen, a highly respected Political Analyst are saying that Cain has hit his ceiling or hit his peak. Yes Cain took some hits during the last debate especially over his 999 Plan, but that comes with the territory when you have the big "MO" going for you.

Cain will be fine with his 999 Plan, as well as his entire economic proposal, but he needs to get a serious crash course in the Foreign Policy Arena & that's his biggest weakness to date.

That's why he should turn to fellow Georgian & former Democratic U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, who who knowledge of foreign policy runs much deeper then those currently in the GOP field as well as those in Congress.

Nunn is highly respected in in this area by many, democrats, republicans, independents, foreign policy experts alike. Cain should reach out to Nunn to be his Consultant on Foreign Policy to show many than he is serious (not to say that he isn't) about a run for the White House in 2012.

Nunn who advises President Obama from time to time on Foreign Policy would give Cain a heavy hitter to beat back charges from critics that he's not the man voters would want in the White House to answer that 3 a.m. Call.

The GOP nomination is wide despite what the polls say & if Cain could get a man of Sam Nunn's wisdom on his campaign team, that would only strengthen the main who manage to beat back stage 4 cancer or he wouldn't be here today making this historic run for the GOP Nomination

Will Austin Scott Go Unopposed in 2012?

That's the question I've heard from readers of this blog lately & my answer is.....He should be!

Scott, the 8th Congressional District Congressman who rode the Tea Party, anti-government, anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi wave to defeat Vietnam Veteran & BlueDog Democrat Jim Marshall will be up for re-election for the 8th , which has been altered to reassure his re-election as 95% of democratic stronghold Bibb County has been moved in the 2nd Congressional District of Sanford Bishop, while absorbing some of Jack Kingston's 1st CD pending approval of the courts & DOJ

As it looks right now, he won't be challenged in the primary like some of his fellow Georgia GOP Congressmen will be in 2012. So.......How about the General Election?

Its hard for me to see a freshman congressman go unopposed in a newly redrawn district, so I say yes, he will be challenged in the General Election.

So the next question would be from who?

Well, you can write off Jim Marshall making a return. With Saxby Chambliss U.S. Senate seat up for re-election in 2014, as well as Gov. Nathan Deal, its a safe bet that he will seriously look at one of those seats, probably governor.

DuBose Porter, forget about it. With Laurens possibly being in the 12th, that's unlikely, besides he already gone on record twice, that he's not interested in running for congress.....governor, I suspect is still in his sights.

Could someone move into the 8th & challenge him like Maria Sheffield could be planning to do against John Barrow? Yes!

If he does get a challenge, it could come from four places: Monroe County, Houston County, Ben Hill County, Wilcox County.

There's one guy down living down in the wiregrass of South Georgia who's laying in the weeds right now. He's a Christian Conservative, his wife is a senior pastor at a south Georgia Church, he's been a mayor, good friends with Jack Kingston, served on numerous state boards, Army Veteran, he has been listed in Who's Who Among America's Teachers four times, and was selected as "Teacher of the Month", and was nominated as "Teacher of the Year & a few years ago was selected as one of Georgia Trends 40 under 40, & he's a country boy......I'm talking about...................