Thursday, September 1, 2011
Oh, The Minority Party Blues: The Present and Future of the Georgia Democratic Party
Following the 2002 elections, the Democratic Party was on its way to being firmly ensconced as Georgia's New Minority Party. Roy Barnes loss in 2002 & again in 2010to NathanDEAL Democratic Party will have been absent from the Governor's Mansion for at least another 4 or 8 years depending on the circumstances. The legislative side, they lost the state senate due to party switchers & retirements & in 2005 lost the house due to division & disagreements among the Black Urban Democrats & White Rural Democrats.
But the Democrats’ status as the minority party is not just a product of its failure to recapture the Governor's Mansion; Democrats’ fortunes have been declining in all three facets of a political party’s existence: in government, in the electorate, and as an organization.
At the state level, the Democratic party in government has declined from its once dominant position losing every single statewide constitutional office last year. Only at the local level democrats still reign supreme, but that's too is being threaten by the locomotive that is the Republic Party of Georgia. The democrats here in Georgia have no where to go but up. Demographic changes are one of the keys democrats can start winning again. But that doesn't mean that they should totally write off white voters in its quest to regain some of its lost stature as the party who was responsible of making Georgia the jewel of the south, the empire state of the south, the leading state of the south.
How did they get to this point has to do with political realignment, new citizens moving in from all parts of the country who didn't know what all the Georgia Democratic Party had done to make Georgia such a attractive place to live & raise a family. But poor decisions by party leaders have also contributed to the decline. Taken together, realignment and the Democrats’ own behavior, the growth of the state of Georgia and its increasing identification with the
Republican Party have made it difficult for Democrats to win in a state once considered
a Democratic stronghold go a long toward explaining how Democrats ended up in the minority.
Like much of the South, the state as a whole is becoming more conservative. Republicans set out to attract “traditional” Democrats who felt at odds with their party on issues of national security, law and order, preferential treatment for women and minorities, and social issues such as abortion and school prayer, etc.
But one should not solely attribute the Democrats’ misfortunes to the processes of realignment.
Democrats themselves certainly share in the blame, as many of their decisions over the past ten years have proven unwise. Not having organized county party committees, a built-in ground game (Grassroots Organization), developing a bench of democratic talent (a Farm Team) & nomination candidates who cannot appeal statewide ( like Georganna Sinkfield Secretary who ran for Secretary of State last year & Jim Martin who was the U.S. Senate nominee in 2008) for example.
While the Democrats’ tendency to nominate liberals for Metro Atlanta or liberals from other progressive bastions from the state that has kept them from winning races for statewide, it is not as if they haven’t been trying extremely hard to break out of that rut.
The remaining Democrats in state government are charged with trying to promote the Democratic agenda or at least slow down the Republican Agenda. But Democrats also faced the challenge of rebuilding the party organization in a way that might make future electoral success possible.
The first task for Democrats was the selection of new leadership to reinvigorating the party Organization: (Michael Berlon: Chair of DPG, Stacey Abrams: House Minority Leader, Steve Henson: Senate Minority Leader). Without an occupant in the Mansion, Democrats would rely on a these people to be both the public face of the Democrats in government as well as the field general, marshalling the Democratic response to the Republican agenda. The selection of Michael Berlon over Darryl Hicks who made two unsuccessful statewide attempts for office showed that democrats wanted a progressive counterpoint to the republicans instead of a centrist approached offered by Darryl Hicks.
And while this was largely received as a win for the Progressive vision for the Democratic Party, Berlon also worked to reach out to the center in an effort to broaden the appeal of the Democratic Party.
Together, Berlon, Abrams & Henson face the task of working together to create a viable
message for Georgia Democrats as well as substantive positions on a host of issues. But they didn't stick together when it came to the revamping of the valued Hope Scholarship, which willl make it extremely harder for rural stsudents, as well as students in low performing school districts to obtain a Hope Scholarship so they can attend a college of their choice. Now students have to make a 3.7 GPA in order to obtaion one of these scholarships.
The immediate future of the Democratic Party looks to be a trying time. On the other hand, however, the prospects for ascension to the majority party in Congress are extremely limited but promising. First off, they must get their organization down here below the Gnat Line together. Secondly, Young Democrats of Georgia Committees must be set up in many counties as possible, as well as high school campuses in addition to college campuses like Ft Valley State, Georgia Southwestern State, South Georgia College, Gordon College, Albany State, Brewton-Parter College. Third, they must recruit candidates that fits the background of a house or Senate District. A one size fits all method isn't going to work. I know a few candidates who ran in red districts tried to run as progressive. Not going to Work! Fourth: Stop trying to mimick the DNC. Become the GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY AGAIN!
And last COMMUNICATION! Patrick Davis who's a politically astute columnist in Macon said this & I quote: "This gap between Atlanta and 'rural' Georgia is still very wide and the Republicans continue to win due to myths and mis-information and I believe this hinders candidate recruitment in various local and state elections. I hate to say this, but as a state party, we are still allowing Republicans to control the debate -- even in counties in which Democrats should do MUCH BETTER in.. One example is Telfair County and its county seat McRae that's usually vote REPUBLICAN. McRae's demographics have dramatically changed in TEN YEARS. It has gone from a population of 2,600 to 5,300. In 2000, it was 53% white, but now in 2010 it is 37% African-American, 32% white and 27% Latino.Where's is the DPG on the issue of immigration reform and HB-87? Local media is non-existent down in this part of Georgia.
And quote Davis again: "Better communication is the main cure for Georgia Democrats. In many places in rural Central and South Georgia, daily media is almost non-existent. So public discourse on an issue such as how the HOPE scholarship being cut and how it... affect rural Georgia goes virtually un-discussed. Most weekly rural newspapers are primarily advertisers with little content or substance. THE DPG has to take on a larger role of getting the Democratic message out. The communication department of the DPG needs to be revamped and expanded. Thus far, those folks have been non-existent.
I absolutely agree with Patrick Davis 100% on this. I have seen stories being reported in the news that occurred 2-3 days ago & sometimes the week before. Communication is key. Hit the small town newspapers, send weekly columns to the editor. This is a area that the party is severely lacking. A state as huge as Georgia, there should be multiple communications people working under Eric Gray at the DPG to get the word at a rapid-like pace.
The democrats have a long, (not too long) way to go before they fix what's been ailing the party.
But the Democrats’ status as the minority party is not just a product of its failure to recapture the Governor's Mansion; Democrats’ fortunes have been declining in all three facets of a political party’s existence: in government, in the electorate, and as an organization.
At the state level, the Democratic party in government has declined from its once dominant position losing every single statewide constitutional office last year. Only at the local level democrats still reign supreme, but that's too is being threaten by the locomotive that is the Republic Party of Georgia. The democrats here in Georgia have no where to go but up. Demographic changes are one of the keys democrats can start winning again. But that doesn't mean that they should totally write off white voters in its quest to regain some of its lost stature as the party who was responsible of making Georgia the jewel of the south, the empire state of the south, the leading state of the south.
How did they get to this point has to do with political realignment, new citizens moving in from all parts of the country who didn't know what all the Georgia Democratic Party had done to make Georgia such a attractive place to live & raise a family. But poor decisions by party leaders have also contributed to the decline. Taken together, realignment and the Democrats’ own behavior, the growth of the state of Georgia and its increasing identification with the
Republican Party have made it difficult for Democrats to win in a state once considered
a Democratic stronghold go a long toward explaining how Democrats ended up in the minority.
Like much of the South, the state as a whole is becoming more conservative. Republicans set out to attract “traditional” Democrats who felt at odds with their party on issues of national security, law and order, preferential treatment for women and minorities, and social issues such as abortion and school prayer, etc.
But one should not solely attribute the Democrats’ misfortunes to the processes of realignment.
Democrats themselves certainly share in the blame, as many of their decisions over the past ten years have proven unwise. Not having organized county party committees, a built-in ground game (Grassroots Organization), developing a bench of democratic talent (a Farm Team) & nomination candidates who cannot appeal statewide ( like Georganna Sinkfield Secretary who ran for Secretary of State last year & Jim Martin who was the U.S. Senate nominee in 2008) for example.
While the Democrats’ tendency to nominate liberals for Metro Atlanta or liberals from other progressive bastions from the state that has kept them from winning races for statewide, it is not as if they haven’t been trying extremely hard to break out of that rut.
The remaining Democrats in state government are charged with trying to promote the Democratic agenda or at least slow down the Republican Agenda. But Democrats also faced the challenge of rebuilding the party organization in a way that might make future electoral success possible.
The first task for Democrats was the selection of new leadership to reinvigorating the party Organization: (Michael Berlon: Chair of DPG, Stacey Abrams: House Minority Leader, Steve Henson: Senate Minority Leader). Without an occupant in the Mansion, Democrats would rely on a these people to be both the public face of the Democrats in government as well as the field general, marshalling the Democratic response to the Republican agenda. The selection of Michael Berlon over Darryl Hicks who made two unsuccessful statewide attempts for office showed that democrats wanted a progressive counterpoint to the republicans instead of a centrist approached offered by Darryl Hicks.
And while this was largely received as a win for the Progressive vision for the Democratic Party, Berlon also worked to reach out to the center in an effort to broaden the appeal of the Democratic Party.
Together, Berlon, Abrams & Henson face the task of working together to create a viable
message for Georgia Democrats as well as substantive positions on a host of issues. But they didn't stick together when it came to the revamping of the valued Hope Scholarship, which willl make it extremely harder for rural stsudents, as well as students in low performing school districts to obtain a Hope Scholarship so they can attend a college of their choice. Now students have to make a 3.7 GPA in order to obtaion one of these scholarships.
The immediate future of the Democratic Party looks to be a trying time. On the other hand, however, the prospects for ascension to the majority party in Congress are extremely limited but promising. First off, they must get their organization down here below the Gnat Line together. Secondly, Young Democrats of Georgia Committees must be set up in many counties as possible, as well as high school campuses in addition to college campuses like Ft Valley State, Georgia Southwestern State, South Georgia College, Gordon College, Albany State, Brewton-Parter College. Third, they must recruit candidates that fits the background of a house or Senate District. A one size fits all method isn't going to work. I know a few candidates who ran in red districts tried to run as progressive. Not going to Work! Fourth: Stop trying to mimick the DNC. Become the GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY AGAIN!
And last COMMUNICATION! Patrick Davis who's a politically astute columnist in Macon said this & I quote: "This gap between Atlanta and 'rural' Georgia is still very wide and the Republicans continue to win due to myths and mis-information and I believe this hinders candidate recruitment in various local and state elections. I hate to say this, but as a state party, we are still allowing Republicans to control the debate -- even in counties in which Democrats should do MUCH BETTER in.. One example is Telfair County and its county seat McRae that's usually vote REPUBLICAN. McRae's demographics have dramatically changed in TEN YEARS. It has gone from a population of 2,600 to 5,300. In 2000, it was 53% white, but now in 2010 it is 37% African-American, 32% white and 27% Latino.Where's is the DPG on the issue of immigration reform and HB-87? Local media is non-existent down in this part of Georgia.
And quote Davis again: "Better communication is the main cure for Georgia Democrats. In many places in rural Central and South Georgia, daily media is almost non-existent. So public discourse on an issue such as how the HOPE scholarship being cut and how it... affect rural Georgia goes virtually un-discussed. Most weekly rural newspapers are primarily advertisers with little content or substance. THE DPG has to take on a larger role of getting the Democratic message out. The communication department of the DPG needs to be revamped and expanded. Thus far, those folks have been non-existent.
I absolutely agree with Patrick Davis 100% on this. I have seen stories being reported in the news that occurred 2-3 days ago & sometimes the week before. Communication is key. Hit the small town newspapers, send weekly columns to the editor. This is a area that the party is severely lacking. A state as huge as Georgia, there should be multiple communications people working under Eric Gray at the DPG to get the word at a rapid-like pace.
The democrats have a long, (not too long) way to go before they fix what's been ailing the party.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
The GOP's Small, but Still Shrinking Tent!
We always hear that the Democratic Party is the Big Tent Party.
Well............ I question that by the way the left treat more conservative democratic members of its own party & calling for their defeat in contested primary races.
But over in the GOP, their tent is not getting bigger.....Its getting smaller by the day.
Ronald Reagan’s “Big Tent” Republican Party is getting smaller every day. One wonders who the national Republican leaders expect to vote for them now and in the future.
Richard Nixon traded the Party of Lincoln for votes from former segregationists with his Southern strategy. The black vote post-Nixon is reliably delivered to the Democratic Party.
The fastest growing minority in America these days is Hispanic immigrants. It is certainly proper to deplore illegal immigration and demand that we secure the border. But harsh rhetoric and draconian state laws to harass anyone of Latino descent are delivering this huge potential future vote to the Democrats.
Gay bashing is also a popular sport among right-wingers in the Republican Party, candidates who seem to think gays are all Democrats and a small minority, so they can be trashed with impunity. What they don’t realize is that the younger generation has grown up with gay friends in school, in their family and at work, as more and more people decide to live openly. Young people are really turned off by gay bashing and it confirms their belief that the Republican Party is intolerant and behind the times. Yes, the young vote less than older people but they will get older and they will pay attention and they will vote. Will they vote for the Michelle Bachmanns of the world? Look at the number of young people who voted for the first time for Barack Obama.
The base of the Republican Party of late has been older white people. It works generally because they are the most reliable voting bloc. But Congressman Paul Ryan got all his Republican House colleagues to vote for a budget plan that calls for a drastic change in Social Security. Or, as the Democrats say, it was a vote “to abolish Social Security as we know it.” Yes, Social Security needs reform. But tinkering with means testing and raising the age or other tweaks are one thing—privatizing Social Security is political suicide, it will not happen, and to run around carried away with rhetoric of hardcore republicans will be noted by the older voter.
The middle-class voters out here also see that nothing has changed on Wall Street. Jobs are scarce, wages are in decline. The gap between the very rich and the middle class grows wider every day. And when they see the Republicans as standing in opposition to closing tax loopholes or raising taxes on the very wealthy, they wonder who’s looking out for them. When Republicans quite rightly raise questions about an alarming debt, we are sympathetic. But we also remember that it was the Republicans who spent a trillion dollars on two wars and another trillion on a Medicare prescription drug entitlement without paying for any of it.
Since the Reagan days it has been the goal of conservatives to “starve the beast.” The theory being that if you reduce government revenue there is less money for overweening federal spending and wasteful programs. The Republicans have continued to cut taxes to starve the beast, but they let the beast continue to feast on borrowed money. They ignored the other side of the equation.
So when the Republicans have finally achieved their lemming-like goals and have convinced blacks, Hispanics, gays, young people, the elderly and the middle class that their party doesn’t represent them, who will be left?
There aren’t that many Wall Street brokers and bankers.
For now, many of the traditional Republican voters are still committed to the party. Mostly because the Democrats are even more feckless, leaderless, and ineffectual. There is also widespread antipathy toward President Obama. That’s enough to perhaps give them a victory in the short run. But how long can they depend on the mantra that the Democrats are worse?
Traditional Republican voters do have an option between the Democrats and the Republicans.
They can stay home on Election Day.
The Big Tent is starting to look more like a pup tent every day.
Well............ I question that by the way the left treat more conservative democratic members of its own party & calling for their defeat in contested primary races.
But over in the GOP, their tent is not getting bigger.....Its getting smaller by the day.
Ronald Reagan’s “Big Tent” Republican Party is getting smaller every day. One wonders who the national Republican leaders expect to vote for them now and in the future.
Richard Nixon traded the Party of Lincoln for votes from former segregationists with his Southern strategy. The black vote post-Nixon is reliably delivered to the Democratic Party.
The fastest growing minority in America these days is Hispanic immigrants. It is certainly proper to deplore illegal immigration and demand that we secure the border. But harsh rhetoric and draconian state laws to harass anyone of Latino descent are delivering this huge potential future vote to the Democrats.
Gay bashing is also a popular sport among right-wingers in the Republican Party, candidates who seem to think gays are all Democrats and a small minority, so they can be trashed with impunity. What they don’t realize is that the younger generation has grown up with gay friends in school, in their family and at work, as more and more people decide to live openly. Young people are really turned off by gay bashing and it confirms their belief that the Republican Party is intolerant and behind the times. Yes, the young vote less than older people but they will get older and they will pay attention and they will vote. Will they vote for the Michelle Bachmanns of the world? Look at the number of young people who voted for the first time for Barack Obama.
The base of the Republican Party of late has been older white people. It works generally because they are the most reliable voting bloc. But Congressman Paul Ryan got all his Republican House colleagues to vote for a budget plan that calls for a drastic change in Social Security. Or, as the Democrats say, it was a vote “to abolish Social Security as we know it.” Yes, Social Security needs reform. But tinkering with means testing and raising the age or other tweaks are one thing—privatizing Social Security is political suicide, it will not happen, and to run around carried away with rhetoric of hardcore republicans will be noted by the older voter.
The middle-class voters out here also see that nothing has changed on Wall Street. Jobs are scarce, wages are in decline. The gap between the very rich and the middle class grows wider every day. And when they see the Republicans as standing in opposition to closing tax loopholes or raising taxes on the very wealthy, they wonder who’s looking out for them. When Republicans quite rightly raise questions about an alarming debt, we are sympathetic. But we also remember that it was the Republicans who spent a trillion dollars on two wars and another trillion on a Medicare prescription drug entitlement without paying for any of it.
Since the Reagan days it has been the goal of conservatives to “starve the beast.” The theory being that if you reduce government revenue there is less money for overweening federal spending and wasteful programs. The Republicans have continued to cut taxes to starve the beast, but they let the beast continue to feast on borrowed money. They ignored the other side of the equation.
So when the Republicans have finally achieved their lemming-like goals and have convinced blacks, Hispanics, gays, young people, the elderly and the middle class that their party doesn’t represent them, who will be left?
There aren’t that many Wall Street brokers and bankers.
For now, many of the traditional Republican voters are still committed to the party. Mostly because the Democrats are even more feckless, leaderless, and ineffectual. There is also widespread antipathy toward President Obama. That’s enough to perhaps give them a victory in the short run. But how long can they depend on the mantra that the Democrats are worse?
Traditional Republican voters do have an option between the Democrats and the Republicans.
They can stay home on Election Day.
The Big Tent is starting to look more like a pup tent every day.
Who will Challenge John Barrow?
With the creation of a republican leaning district, many people expect numerous candidates to come forward to challenge the BlueDog Democrat who first won the seat back in 2004 defeating Max Burns (R).
Potential candidates include:
State Senator Greg Goggins (R-Douglas)
Goggans is a born and raised South Georgian and is a proud graduate of our public schools, ABAC and the University of Georgia. He received his orthodontic and dental training education from the Medical College of Georgia and orthodontic specialty training from the University of Tennessee. Dr. Goggans has operated a successful practice in Coffee County.
State Representative Jon Burns (R-Newington)
Burns graduated from Effingham County High School and earned his Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Georgia Southern University. He holds a Juris Doctor degree from John Marshall Law School. Burns is a member and Sunday School Superintendent at Mizpah United Methodist Church. He is a member of the Rotary Club, past member of the Georgia Southern University Alumni Association Board of Directors, Member and Past President of the Effingham County Chamber of Commerce, Member of the Georgia Agribusiness Council, Member and Past President of the Effingham County Young Farmers Organization, member of Sigma Chi Fraternity and proudly served in the Georgia Army National Guard.
State Reprsentative Lee Anderson (R-Grovetown)
Anderson is the hot name being rumored to challenge Barrow for the 12th. Anderson currently serves as state Representative for District 117, which includes Lincoln County, and portions of Columbia and Wilkes Counties. He was elected into the House of Representatives in 2008, and currently serves on the Agriculture & Consumer Affairs, Intragovernmental Coordination, Natural Resources and Environment, and Transportation Committees.Representative Anderson now sits on the Columbia County Farm Bureau Board of Directors after serving as President of the organization for over 26 years. He is also a member of the Georgia Cattlemen’s Association and was Chairman of the Georgia Farm Bureau State Young Farmer Committee in 1987. In addition to these leadership roles, he is also an active supporter of several youth organizations, including 4-H, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Church Groups, and the Future Farmers of America. Every year he hosts an annual fishing tournament for these organizations on his property in Columbia County.
Greg Morris (R-Vidalia)
I consider Morris a longshot at making a bid for the 12th. Born and raised in Vidalia, Georgia, Representative Greg Morris attended the Robert Toombs Christian Academy before pursuing a Political Science Degree from the University of Georgia.
The businessman served his native county for three years as a Toombs County Commissioner. Morris was first elected to the Georgia State House of Representatives in 1998 as a democrat until he switched parties back in 2006
Honorable Mention: Tommie Williams, State Senator out of Lyons said yesterday that he will not seek the 12th CD at this point in time. I still say before its all over, he will run for the 12th CD.
Raymond McKinney who ran for the seat a few yars ago could make another run for it, as well as Jeanne Seaver.
All of these men would be strong challengers to Barrow, but like I said yesterday, do not underestimate John Barrow's ability to get the job done.
Potential candidates include:
State Senator Greg Goggins (R-Douglas)
Goggans is a born and raised South Georgian and is a proud graduate of our public schools, ABAC and the University of Georgia. He received his orthodontic and dental training education from the Medical College of Georgia and orthodontic specialty training from the University of Tennessee. Dr. Goggans has operated a successful practice in Coffee County.
State Representative Jon Burns (R-Newington)
Burns graduated from Effingham County High School and earned his Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Georgia Southern University. He holds a Juris Doctor degree from John Marshall Law School. Burns is a member and Sunday School Superintendent at Mizpah United Methodist Church. He is a member of the Rotary Club, past member of the Georgia Southern University Alumni Association Board of Directors, Member and Past President of the Effingham County Chamber of Commerce, Member of the Georgia Agribusiness Council, Member and Past President of the Effingham County Young Farmers Organization, member of Sigma Chi Fraternity and proudly served in the Georgia Army National Guard.
State Reprsentative Lee Anderson (R-Grovetown)
Anderson is the hot name being rumored to challenge Barrow for the 12th. Anderson currently serves as state Representative for District 117, which includes Lincoln County, and portions of Columbia and Wilkes Counties. He was elected into the House of Representatives in 2008, and currently serves on the Agriculture & Consumer Affairs, Intragovernmental Coordination, Natural Resources and Environment, and Transportation Committees.Representative Anderson now sits on the Columbia County Farm Bureau Board of Directors after serving as President of the organization for over 26 years. He is also a member of the Georgia Cattlemen’s Association and was Chairman of the Georgia Farm Bureau State Young Farmer Committee in 1987. In addition to these leadership roles, he is also an active supporter of several youth organizations, including 4-H, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Church Groups, and the Future Farmers of America. Every year he hosts an annual fishing tournament for these organizations on his property in Columbia County.
Greg Morris (R-Vidalia)
I consider Morris a longshot at making a bid for the 12th. Born and raised in Vidalia, Georgia, Representative Greg Morris attended the Robert Toombs Christian Academy before pursuing a Political Science Degree from the University of Georgia.
The businessman served his native county for three years as a Toombs County Commissioner. Morris was first elected to the Georgia State House of Representatives in 1998 as a democrat until he switched parties back in 2006
Honorable Mention: Tommie Williams, State Senator out of Lyons said yesterday that he will not seek the 12th CD at this point in time. I still say before its all over, he will run for the 12th CD.
Raymond McKinney who ran for the seat a few yars ago could make another run for it, as well as Jeanne Seaver.
All of these men would be strong challengers to Barrow, but like I said yesterday, do not underestimate John Barrow's ability to get the job done.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Are Republicans Underestimating John Barrow's ability to win in new 12th?
A look at the newly proposed 12th District finds Conservative Democrat John Barrow in the same position former Congressman Jim Marshall was in when the republicans redrew the old 3rd district (now 8th) in a mid-decade redistricting effort to oust him in favor of ex-congressman Mac Collins back in 2006.
Back then it was said that Marshall political career was over when the republicans redrew the district to favor Mac Collins who was seeking a return to congress after his failed attempt at the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Democrat Zell Miller in 2004.
But it wasn't as Marshall went on to win in the newly redrawn district 51% to Collins 49%, in which Collins to this day hasn't conceded, which shows how much class Collins has.
It took a anti-government, anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi, Tea Party 2010 wave election to finally defeat Jim Marshall. Republicans back then underestimated Jim Marshall ability to adapt & win over his new constituents in the southern & Norther Half of the 8th District.
The same thing is occurring here with John Barrow. His 12th district has been drastically altered in a effort to defeat him in 2012. Barrow, the only remaining White Southern Democrat in the deep south is now one of the most endangered democrats in the county as a result. The new district is now a republican leaning district, rather the democratic leaning district Barrow once occupied.
Republicans are making a mistake & underestimating Barrow's ability to appeal to independent conservatives & swing voters alike. Counties such as Laurens, Coffee, Telfair, Wheeler are counties that Barrow should do well in, as well as Jeff Davis, while republican strongholds Appling & Columbia Counties are areas that he will have to crank it up a bit.
Barrow is a able campaigner & a strong fundraiser, in addition he has crossover appeal among some republicans just as Jim Marshall had when he was serving as 8th District representative.
I expect Barrow to do well in the new 12th district. Barrow will have to relocate to another city in the 12th with all of Chatham County now in Rep. Jack Kingston's 1st District. The logical location would be Augusta, but if I were Barrow, I'd move to Metter, Dublin, or Statesboro for strategic purposes.
Back then it was said that Marshall political career was over when the republicans redrew the district to favor Mac Collins who was seeking a return to congress after his failed attempt at the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Democrat Zell Miller in 2004.
But it wasn't as Marshall went on to win in the newly redrawn district 51% to Collins 49%, in which Collins to this day hasn't conceded, which shows how much class Collins has.
It took a anti-government, anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi, Tea Party 2010 wave election to finally defeat Jim Marshall. Republicans back then underestimated Jim Marshall ability to adapt & win over his new constituents in the southern & Norther Half of the 8th District.
The same thing is occurring here with John Barrow. His 12th district has been drastically altered in a effort to defeat him in 2012. Barrow, the only remaining White Southern Democrat in the deep south is now one of the most endangered democrats in the county as a result. The new district is now a republican leaning district, rather the democratic leaning district Barrow once occupied.
Republicans are making a mistake & underestimating Barrow's ability to appeal to independent conservatives & swing voters alike. Counties such as Laurens, Coffee, Telfair, Wheeler are counties that Barrow should do well in, as well as Jeff Davis, while republican strongholds Appling & Columbia Counties are areas that he will have to crank it up a bit.
Barrow is a able campaigner & a strong fundraiser, in addition he has crossover appeal among some republicans just as Jim Marshall had when he was serving as 8th District representative.
I expect Barrow to do well in the new 12th district. Barrow will have to relocate to another city in the 12th with all of Chatham County now in Rep. Jack Kingston's 1st District. The logical location would be Augusta, but if I were Barrow, I'd move to Metter, Dublin, or Statesboro for strategic purposes.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Hard Times for Georgia Democrats. What's the cure?
Georgia Democrats haven't been this down & out since the aftermath of the Civil War when the party don't exist for a few years until the early 1870s when it roared back to power. But the Civil war isn't the blame for a party that had basically controlled the state of Georgia for over 135 years.
A rapidly growing population by the influx of transplants from different corners of the country who came in around the time Georgia Republicans was beginning to make noise in the early 1990s, mass retirements of democratic officials who held seats in the state legislature, some as much as 40 years or more, party switching by democrats who felt the change was on the horizon after the shocking defeat of then gov Roy Barnes in 2002 & a party that was being taken over by Urban/Suburban Democrats, as rural democrats were beginning to desert the party.
Democrats were caught sleeping at the wheel 10 years ago & when they finally did, the truck was turned upside down. It was a total loss!
Georgia Democrats have now got to get back behind the wheel & catch up with a Republican Vehicle that's traveling well over 120 MPH. (Ga GOP).
Redistricting is a ugly affair. Dems did it 10 years ago, Republicans are trying to replicate it. So what's a party to do?
Three straight statewide elections lost for governor, minimum or no gains in both chambers of the legislature since 2006, a bench that is almost empty, I mean there's no where to go but up!
The local level is the party's last hope. Many of these local (rural) democrats on the City Council, County Commission, Mayor, etc are mostly moderate/conservative democrats. The progressives are found in the cities (Macon, Savannah, Augusta...etc)
But many of these local democrats are not about to leave relative safe seats to run for a legislative seat. The reasons have to be concrete, legitimate & most of all they have to know that they will have the full & unbinding support of the Georgia Democratic Party.
Political Consultant Jay Stalnaker, former candidate for Butler (Taylor Co) City Council said something that makes alot of sense: Democrats need to reach out to former democrats who have now retired like Robert Ray (Fort Valley), Newt Hudson (Rochelle), Carol Jackson (Cleveland), Rooney Bowen (Cordele), I can on & on, especially candidates who are running in areas that these legislator once held. Dems up in Atlanta don't realize that former legislators like them still carry sway on the local level in their counties & towns. Their word goes along way in these small communities.
Embrace democrats who hold different views that the typical democrat who is progressive. Turning a cold shoulder towards Bluedog Democrats does not help a party that is now down to 63 house members & 20 senate members. In 2012, there will be many democratic candidates who are in the mold of John Barrow, George Busbee, Jim Marshall, Zell Miller, Sanford Bishop (yes Bishop is a moderate, not a liberal many are trying to make him out to be). Running progressives/liberals in swing or conservative districts is a recipe for disaster as that candidate will not have a chance in hell of winning. I said this once & I'll say it again: A PARTY MADE UP OF ONLY BLACKS, HISPANICS, GAYS, LIBERALS CANNOT & WILL NOT WIN IN GEORGIA....PERIOD!
The so-called Big tent party is no big tent without some centrist/conservative democrats in its ranks. Democrats, you need 'em. Don't fool yourselves! The National Democrats made the same thing & look what happened.....lost control of house. Why? Many democrats who made up their majority were rural democrats.
Become the Democratic Party of GEORGIA again!
A rapidly growing population by the influx of transplants from different corners of the country who came in around the time Georgia Republicans was beginning to make noise in the early 1990s, mass retirements of democratic officials who held seats in the state legislature, some as much as 40 years or more, party switching by democrats who felt the change was on the horizon after the shocking defeat of then gov Roy Barnes in 2002 & a party that was being taken over by Urban/Suburban Democrats, as rural democrats were beginning to desert the party.
Democrats were caught sleeping at the wheel 10 years ago & when they finally did, the truck was turned upside down. It was a total loss!
Georgia Democrats have now got to get back behind the wheel & catch up with a Republican Vehicle that's traveling well over 120 MPH. (Ga GOP).
Redistricting is a ugly affair. Dems did it 10 years ago, Republicans are trying to replicate it. So what's a party to do?
Three straight statewide elections lost for governor, minimum or no gains in both chambers of the legislature since 2006, a bench that is almost empty, I mean there's no where to go but up!
The local level is the party's last hope. Many of these local (rural) democrats on the City Council, County Commission, Mayor, etc are mostly moderate/conservative democrats. The progressives are found in the cities (Macon, Savannah, Augusta...etc)
But many of these local democrats are not about to leave relative safe seats to run for a legislative seat. The reasons have to be concrete, legitimate & most of all they have to know that they will have the full & unbinding support of the Georgia Democratic Party.
Political Consultant Jay Stalnaker, former candidate for Butler (Taylor Co) City Council said something that makes alot of sense: Democrats need to reach out to former democrats who have now retired like Robert Ray (Fort Valley), Newt Hudson (Rochelle), Carol Jackson (Cleveland), Rooney Bowen (Cordele), I can on & on, especially candidates who are running in areas that these legislator once held. Dems up in Atlanta don't realize that former legislators like them still carry sway on the local level in their counties & towns. Their word goes along way in these small communities.
Embrace democrats who hold different views that the typical democrat who is progressive. Turning a cold shoulder towards Bluedog Democrats does not help a party that is now down to 63 house members & 20 senate members. In 2012, there will be many democratic candidates who are in the mold of John Barrow, George Busbee, Jim Marshall, Zell Miller, Sanford Bishop (yes Bishop is a moderate, not a liberal many are trying to make him out to be). Running progressives/liberals in swing or conservative districts is a recipe for disaster as that candidate will not have a chance in hell of winning. I said this once & I'll say it again: A PARTY MADE UP OF ONLY BLACKS, HISPANICS, GAYS, LIBERALS CANNOT & WILL NOT WIN IN GEORGIA....PERIOD!
The so-called Big tent party is no big tent without some centrist/conservative democrats in its ranks. Democrats, you need 'em. Don't fool yourselves! The National Democrats made the same thing & look what happened.....lost control of house. Why? Many democrats who made up their majority were rural democrats.
Become the Democratic Party of GEORGIA again!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
-
Every election cycle, Georgia politics serves up a matchup that tells you more about the state of a party than the candidates themselves. In... -
Every election season brings a fresh batch of names, new voices, and plenty of talk about who’s stepping up to lead Georgia next. But anybod... -
Every election cycle, folks act shocked when Georgia politics throws a curveball. But if you’ve watched this state long enough from courthou...