Rural Voters & Carol Porter: A match made in Heaven?

She's articulate. She's Bright. She is a businesswoman. She's strong on Family Values. She wants to rid the State Capitol of Corruption & the stench of Ethically challenged Politicos. She wants to be your next Lt. Governor.

Im talking about Carol Porter, wife of minority leader DuBose Porter.

The most unlikely candidate to run for Lt. Governor, Porter know wants to be the one to clean up the State Senate & return it to a more bi-partisan, workable environment from 8 yrs of inept, Iron-Fisted leadership of Casey Cagle.


Porter, of Dublin, Ga, will do a better job of making the rural connection. She is running as a moderate/conservative, which will give Republicans who are disenchanted about the direction of the state a clear conscience to vote for a Democrat.

In small towns like Spoerton, Climax, Pearson, Twin City, Vidalia and Ocklocnee & others like Barnesville, Camilla, Hartwell, Reidsville, Hamilton, Douglas, Darien and Americus, voters in these towns need ideas and hope that a candidate can go to Atlanta and help make a difference in their lives. They want to know that their Lt. Governor knows that their town statistically trails bigger cities in Georgia in median family and household incomes, in the number of high school graduates and in the number of college graduates.

The farmers want to know that their Lt. Governor knows they are paying as much a $4.00 a gallon for the diesel fuel that runs their tractors and combines, and that the cost of fertilizer, a major expense in the production of crops, has risen dramatically.

Rural swing voters are going to be very competitive targets this year. Mark my words.

Most of the state's poorest counties are rural, and rural areas have lost thousands of manufacturing jobs. (Like 300 jobs being outsoured to Mexico from Cooper Lighting in Americus, Ga). The state economy, education and jobs give porter an opportunity to cut Republican rural strength. One of the biggest concerns for rural Georgians is Financial Security & Jobs & right now the policies of the GOP-led Legislature & Perdue has failed miserably in fixing those problems plaging rural Georgians.

When it comes to values, rural Georgians would be very attracted to Mrs. Porter. A native of Johnson County, Porter nows the value of work, community & family. Her father as a rural doctor &her mother, a school teacher and cookbook author instilled those vallues in her that remain strong today. She is a active member of First United Methodist Church in Dublin, where she currently serves on the Administrative Board, the Worship Committee and as a Sunday School Teacher for the Second Door Adult Bible Class every third Sunday.

I know for a fact from variuos emails I've gotten from people say they lean republican, but are very, very open to change & vote for a democrat like Carol Porter, due to a poor economy, the weakening of our public education, lack of economic development & ethical charges that have run thru the state capitol.

Too many Democrats too often act like rural Georgia is just someplace to fly over or drive thru between a fundraiser or big campaign event in Savannah or Athens. In small towns and rural communities, our lifestyle and all the values it represents, are being ignored, while the rest of Georgia grasp with an economic downturn, hell, recession has become a permanent way of life for most of rural Georgia.

That's why Carol Porter as Lt. Governor would put a spotlight on rural georgia in terms of creating much needed jobs, improving our rural schools, better services for our hospitals & pumping new life back into the places where I hope the Georgia Democratic Party return to its roots and to champion the forgotten Georgia, not just the metropolitan areas, but also in the small towns that lie between. That's why Georgia at this critical stage in its history needs a Carol Porter in the legislature to bring about those changes along with Roy Barnes.

GAE announces 2010 statewide general election endorsements

The 43,000-member Georgia Association of Educators (GAE) today released its list of endorsements for Georgia’s statewide November general elections. Newly-elected GAE President Calvine Rollins says her organization’s recommendations were once again based on candidate interviews and profiles that indicated their willingness to work for the betterment of Georgia’s public education system. “These are challenging times for our public schools and they will need strong and creative leadership particularly in the governor’s and superintendent’s offices,” said Rollins. “Our process of candidate interviews and questionnaires helps our leadership come to the best possible recommendation, based on our priorities, on who will be a true friend to our public schools and the children who depend on them for their education.”

In Georgia’s gubernatorial race GAE is supporting former Governor Roy Barnes. Barnes, while still facing some backlash from his previous administration, now has the benefit of hindsight in what is truly needed to help our public schools and its students. Rollins said, “Barnes is the best choice to be able to come in and hit the ground running with respect to creating and implementing plans to address concerns such as class size, making high stakes testing more diagnostic rather than punitive, fully funding and staffing our public schools, making them safe for teaching and learning, opposing destructive ideas such as vouchers that would drain critically needed funding from our public schools, and including practitioners and utilizing their front line expertise in decisions that affect our public schools.”

In the state’s superintendent’s race, GAE is putting its weight behind Joe Martin. “We feel that Martin truly is going to work for the 1.75 million children who go to Georgia’s public schools,” said Rollins.“He feels strongly that lower class sizes are critical to providing the best possible teaching and learning environment and that our state has both a moral and constitutional obligation to fully fund our public schools, which he has proven through his five year legal challenge to do so. He believes in providing whatever resources are needed to keep our schools and children safe. And we feel his support of the dedicated men and women who work on frontlines with our children is genuine."

The complete GAE statewide office endorsement list is as follows:

Governor – Roy Barnes

Lt. Governor – Carol Porter

State Superintendent of Schools – Joe Martin

Secretary of State – Georganna Sinkfield

Labor Commissioner – Darryl Hicks

Insurance Commissioner – Mary Squires

Attorney General – Ken Hodges

Insider Advantage Poll: Tight Race for Governor, Isakson Under 50%

Race for Governor:

Deal: 45%
Barnes: 41%
Monds: 5%
Undecided:9%

Race for U.S. Senate:

Isakson: 47%
Thurmond: 35%
Donovan: 7%
Undecided: 11% 9%

Analysis from M. Towery:

Amazingly, Roy Barnes remains in contention despite the fact that the head of his party nationally, Barack Obama, has reached a phenomenally low level of support in Georgia. Even a plurality of Democrats polled said they were opposed to President Obama’s position as to placing a mosque near the site of the 9-11 tragedy.

“That said, Nathan Deal is amazingly resilient, given the fact that Barnes has relentlessly attacked him on television for the last seven days, and Deal has just emerged from a bruising GOP primary.

“For Barnes to win, African Americans at a minimum must make up 21 percent of the total electorate and, in fact, he actually needs a higher African-American turnout than that. Among white voters, Barnes is losing 58 percent to 31 percent. This is not completely bad news for Barnes, given the fact that very few whites in Georgia currently identify themselves as Democrats.

“The race really boils down to independent voters. Polling data indicates that virtually as many people identify themselves as independents as they do either of the two dominant political parties. Among independents, the race is tight with Deal having 41 percent of the independent vote and Barnes receiving 38 percent.

“I am amazed at how low the percentage of undecided voters is at this time, and we could potentially see that number shift back upward once the candidates start trading various attack ads.

“Deal’s strategy must be to debunk Barnes’ assertion that he faces a potential grand jury indictment and that he has ‘ethical problems.’ Barnes’ strategy must center on the difficult dilemma of distancing himself not only from Barack Obama but from the entire Democratic Party while, at the same time, motivating African Americans who vote overwhelmingly Democrat to turn out to the polls at the level needed to win the race.

“It’s impossible to predict how this race will end because there are so many variables and we have no idea what external events might take place that might affect either candidate positively or negatively.

“Make no mistake – this will be a tight race. But for Barnes to win he must shed the country boy image he has been projecting on television and go after the independent voters who seem inclined to consider voting for him. Barnes must become the metro Atlanta candidate, and that means the real Roy Barnes, who is articulate and sophisticated, must emerge in his commercials. For Deal to win, he must convince voters that he is familiar with statewide issues and that he is not tainted by ethical problems, tax problems or other questions that would be left hanging were he to be elected governor.

“Obviously, the national political winds are blowing in the Republican Party’s direction. For Barnes to even be in this race at this point, considering President Obama’s catastrophic performance in the last month, suggests that this will be a toe-to-toe battle until the bitter end.

“I predict the Georgia governor’s race will become a point of national focus before it is concluded in November.”


Sen. Isakson is near the magic 50 percent-plus-one range before running even his first television commercial. US senators inevitably see a significant amount of their name ID disappear over a six-year period because they are in Washington, D.C., and aren’t available to be seen on local television on a regular basis. Once Isakson begins his television campaign, I expect to see a substantial consolidation of the vote, with Isakson likely to move into the mid-50s or above.

“Michael Thurmond is performing admirably. However, there are relatively few African Americans with no opinion in the race and this would, of course, be his most reliable base. [Thurmond is black.] I also expect to see the Libertarian candidate decline based on historic trends. A large portion of that likely would go to Isakson, as well.

“This poll should not be misinterpreted by the politically naïve. A very old rule of thumb was that incumbent candidates had to be at 50 percent or above to be considered ‘safe.’ In the last five to eight years, that rule of thumb has changed, particularly when a candidate has not even launched his first television commercial. Sen. Isakson’s numbers are more than sufficient to suggest that, absent some catastrophic occurrence involving his entire party, Isakson will be returned to the US Senate while Thurmond will likely make a name for himself and emerge as a potential leader in whatever form the Democratic Party takes after the elections.”

Can Secretary of State candidate Georganna Sinkfield win Statewide?

And the reason I ask that question is because she is a African-American from a Minority-Majority District & the history of Black candidates from those districts running statewide is not great.

Sinkfield defeated Gail Buckner to win the runoff for the democratic nomination for Secretary of State to face Brian Kemp (R-Athens) in the General Election.

Sinkfield is trying to do something that is impossible for a black candidate to do: win over a statewide electorate that is more middle-of-the-road than her ultra Liberal District in Fulton County.

Can she attract a white-crossover vote? Who Knows! The support of the white electorate is even more important for statewide candidates because they must appeal to a white majority, unlike urban campaigns and black candidates running in minority-majority congressional districts or local state rep or senate districts.

She must adopt a “flexible” campaign strategy by “using a quiet, conciliatory style” that is non-threatening to white voters. This deracialization strategy represents a delicate balance between winning over reluctant whites while not alienating black voters.

The problem for her is that her district is not representative of the state as a whole because of the deliberate elimination of all those who are not traditional liberal, democratic voters. Such efforts ensure that the best-financed and most well-known black candidates will tend to project a political philosophy that resonates strongly with their district’s minority constituents; however, this excludes positions and messages capable of appealing to statewide voters as a whole.

As a Black Legislator from the State Legislature who wants to win a statewide election, she simply is going to have to moderate her positions on a host of issues. Of course, they risk losing the black vote when doing so. Take a look at the recent Alabama gubernatorial primary on the Democratic side. Rep. Arthur Davis, who represents a majority-black district in the House, moved sharply to the right in anticipation of his run and even opposed Obama’s signature initiative- healthcare reform. He also downplayed the significance of black leaders in the state (maybe took them for granted) knowing that wasn’t going to win him a general election. The end result, he lost the primary, interestingly, to a white candidate who carried most of the majority black counties in the state. It is a tough and tricky road.

Now one is probably asking why isn't Michael Thurmond is in the conversation? Well Thurmond has run statewide & has been successful in each of his runs as Labor Commissioner. He knows how to run a statewide campaign.

Darryl Hicks?

Darryl ran statewide & did well for a first timer & that experience will help him with his run for Labor Commissioner. Plus with his rural roots, he can relate to the vast majority of rural Georgians. His knowledge of economic development, & business acumen will appeal to those who are unemployed as well as small business owners.

Keith Moffett?

Keith is running his first ever statewide race (PSC Commissioner). So I can make a call on that, but he has been down state once & will surprise some people on election night. He's a bright, articulate candidate who served his country for 9 yrs in the U.S. Navy & is a part of the administration for Macon Mayor Robert Reichert & was 8th Congressional District District Director.

I think Sinkfield can win, but she has to transform herself to better appeal to a more centrist electorate.

Democrats Problem with the Elusive White Male Voter

In the winner-take-all system of politics, a candidate for office doesn't have to gain the votes of every citizen. What he has to do is to gain a majority in enough counties so that he has the majority of the total popular vote votes.

Thus much strategy in statewide elections revolves around determining which counties each party can pretty much assume they'll win ( for example Chatham County for the Democrats, Lee County for the Republicans) and which ones are less certain and which might be won if contested closely.


But the parties also tend to divide the overall vote in other ways, such as along lines of education and employment. Historically the Democrats tended to do much better among industrial workers than they did among professionals, although there were certain sub-categories in each case that were exceptional. It also turns out that there are voting patterns which tend to correlate with age.

And there are voting patterns associated with race and gender. The Democrats have long tried particularly hard to appeal to "minority groups", and in most elections will tend to get the majority of votes cast by Blacks and Hispanics.

But there's one minority where they have difficulty or never do well with: White Men. Making up just shy of 40% of the voters, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that more white men overall will vote Republican than Democratic. Generally speaking, it's not really so much of question of whether the Democrats can get a majority of White Male votes as of how big the Republican margin will be. If the margin is sufficiently small, the Democrats have a chance of compensating for it with majorities in other demographics. If the margin among White Males is too large, however, then the Democrats will lose.

That's because as a group, White Males maybe more Jacksonian,a s well as Jeffersonian than any other race/gender demographic.

The way that when the nomination in a party is contested during the primaries, that this forces the candidates to pander to extremist elements of the party, who are far more influential within the primary process than they are during the general election. Since it seems as if the Democratic candidates are most concerned about the so-called "Democratic wing of the Democratic party", they have been delivering a particularly extreme message during their campaigning.

If you look at the candidates who ran for governor this year, neither was a liberal democrat. All were moderate to conservative democrats compared to 2006, when Mark Taylor ran to the left of then Secretary of State Cathy Cox to win the nomiantion.

Traditionally, the strategy has been to take extreme positions during the primary process, and to try to move towards the center and to deliver a more moderate message during the general election campaign. But not this year as Roy Barnes ran in the democratic primary as a centrist, at times going conservative on Key issues like the AZ Immigration Law for example.

The main reason why democrats have had problems attracting White Male voters is due to the Civil Rights Revolution. The rhetoric by extremist elements that was infiltrating the democratic party denounced white men as racist and oppressors, exacerbated these effects. Conflict within the Democratic Party sparked by the events of 1968 led to rules changes that diminished the power of labor unions, for decades centers of white male political influence and social standing.

The reason politicos like Sam Nunn was so successful in attracting support of White Male voters is (1) He was a hawk on National Defense (2) Support of Gun Rights (3) Favored School Prayer & was a cultural conservative.

The white male voter is not an endangered species for democrats. They just need the "right" democrat that'll appeal to the mostly center-right demomgraphic.

Some white male voters support Republicans to defend their upper-class interests, while middle and working class white men who vote Republican are generally voting against their economic interests, arguably more so than any other demographic group. The proportion and why of this second group are questions of huge import for the future of the Democratic Party.

Democrats can't just rely on mimorities & white liberals to carry the torch for them, they have to start appealing to the white male voter in order to win elections. That has been a problem here since 2002 & I really believe this year will be different. Michael Thurmond knows how to atrract them, Roy Barnes knows how as well, Ken Hodges, J.B. Powell also. So does Carol Porter & Darryl Hicks.

But as for the rest like Joe Martin, Georganna Sinkfield, Mary Squires, I don't know.

Candidate Spotlight: Pat Rhudy (D-Carrollton), SD 30

Up in West Georgia, Pat Rhudy is taking on Incumbent Bill Hamrick for SD 30 in november.

A little about Rhudy, which isn't much: She is a mother of four grown Children, a widow who lost her husband of 34 years in 2007 due to a car wreck, work as a substitute teacher in Carroll County high schools, and I am a field representative for the U.S Census Bureau, doing the American Community Survey in Carroll and Haralson County.

One of her big issues is Education, in which she says: my work as a substitute high school teacher allows me frequent close observation of education in progress; it allows me communication with educators at work.

Dr. Pablo Santamaria (D) vs Matt Hatchett (R) for HD 143

A race that flew under the radar was the Runoff election over in HD 143 between Mitch Warnock & Pablo Santamaria. Santamaria won the runoff over Warnock by just 120+ votes. He now faces republican Matt Hatchett in November.

So What happened?

Well for one he got Dan King's supporters to swing their votes to him, as well as Claudia Graham, in addition to paying her $2500 for consulting his campaign. And another reason was that republicans voted for Santamaria hoping to avoid facing warnock in the General Election, thinking that Warnock would have been tough to beat head to head. So in a strategic move they elected the "weakest" candidate in the runoff

So now he takes on Matt Hatchett, who served on the Dublin City Council since 1999, serving as Mayor Pro-Tem in 2006 and 2007. Matt has chaired the Dublin/Laurens County St. Patrick’s Festival, the Irish Balloon Festival, the Theatre Dublin Nutcracker, The Heart of Georgia United Way and the Boys and Girls Club of Laurens County. He is a member of the Dublin Rotary club and the board of directors of Communities in Schools and the Dublin/Laurens Arts Council. Matt currently serves as the chairman of the advisory board of the Citizens Bank of Laurens County.

Santamaria is a partner and practicing physician in Heart of Georgia Urology Associates, LLC (dba: Middle Georgia Urology Associates). I have served as president of the Georgia Urological Association and the Laurens County Medical Society. Currently I am serving as a Clinical Associate Professor with the Emory University Department of Urology. In addition he's a mem.of the Dublin Rotary Club. I have served on the boards of the Dublin Laurens County Chamber of Commerce, Boys and Girls Club of Laurens County, the Laurens County Chapter of the Southeast Division of the American Cancer Society and the Heart of Georgia United Way.

He & his family has lived in Dublin for the past 12 years.

If elected, Santamaria would be the only Physician in the House of Representatives.