tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3084429012972393947.post6489910273033256907..comments2023-09-10T10:42:03.489-04:00Comments on Peanut Politics: Roy Barnes Path to Victory according to the National Journal's HotlineKeithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07899457461643850804noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3084429012972393947.post-26060926953189378432010-10-11T15:33:24.378-04:002010-10-11T15:33:24.378-04:00Math above is bad...
At 24% black turnout, which ...Math above is bad...<br /><br />At 24% black turnout, which is 22.8% for Barnes, he'd need 27.2% more, or 35.7% of whites (27.2/76).<br /><br />At 28%, he'd need 32.5% of whites.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18116121761413049785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3084429012972393947.post-30204173685934349522010-10-11T15:21:13.683-04:002010-10-11T15:21:13.683-04:00Here's the poll.<a href="http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1012_1640.aspx" rel="nofollow">Here's the poll</a>.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18116121761413049785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3084429012972393947.post-80275408845744987152010-10-11T15:20:50.284-04:002010-10-11T15:20:50.284-04:00http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1...http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1012_1640.aspx<br /><br />Same margin as last IA poll, both gained 4 points. No cross tabs. Barnes has 27% of the white vote, which I find rather suspect. Theoretically, if whites and blacks were the only voters, and blacks go 95% for Barnes, 24% black turnout puts him over the top (theoretically of course). CNN 2006 exit polls had blacks at 16%, 30% in 2008.<br /><br />IA pollster thinks energized Republican men will vote Deal in... But it's not like we saw the Tea Party energy throwing out Georgia politicians like in other states.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18116121761413049785noreply@blogger.com